7 ms·

Decade? We're 4 years in since ChatGPT released publicly and have gone from "Wow this thing is stupid" to running coding agents on auto mode, and the Chinese la

Decade? We're 4 years in since ChatGPT released publicly and have gone from "Wow this thing is stupid" to running coding agents on auto mode, and the Chinese labs have been around for even less time. The US providers may lose dominance in 1 or 2 years.

kay_o 2mo ago
> may lose dominance in 1 or 2 years In some portions they already lost dominance. My claude will happily generate disgustingly vulnerable code then flag me for ToS violation when I ask it to make sure the code that it just made, in the same context window, in the same conversation is safe and doesn't have glaring holes. Also great to be charged $xx.xx+ amounts and then it refuses to answer without refunding it.
999900000999 2mo ago
I’m talking about our overall economic dominance. We’re still the most powerful economy on earth, but I can’t imagine this continuing forever.
- inigyou 2mo ago
  By what metric - GDP? That measures price level, not economic power.
  - mctaylor 2mo ago
    Most expensive groceries, rents, and healthcare in the world! Winning!
    - tw1984 2mo ago
      stupidly large number of lawyers as well. fixed for you.
  - frostyel 2mo ago
    > By what metric imperial
    - inigyou 2mo ago
      funny joke so I vouched it, but you should know you've been shadowbanned since your first ever comment.
ngl999 2mo ago
They won't. China doesn't have the training capacity and the quality data sets, the former because of access to fabs, the latter because of internal censorship that is getting worse by day. Simple as that.
- decimalenough 2mo ago
  The current panic is happening precisely because Chinese open weight models like Kimi and Qwen are demonstrably competitive with SotA models like Fable, but far cheaper. https://fireworks.ai/blog/kimik3-fable https://fireworks.ai/blog/kimik3-fable
  - ngl999 2mo ago
    No, the Chinese tech companies routinely super optimize for a given 'famous' or 'established' or 'mainstream' benchmarks. Any other concern is secondary. In other words, they look good on surface, but suck whenever anyone put them to any serious use. That's why they are cheap, they have to be cheap because they suck.
    - numpad0 2mo ago
      how can you say that with a username of "ngl999", that doesn't make sense (IIUC, -ngl [NUM_LAYERS] specify number of layers to offload to GPU in llama.cpp, 999 on most use cases might as well be -1)
      - ngl999 2mo ago
        what relation does a username string have to the observations I made?
- wasfgwp 2mo ago
  > the latter because of internal censorship Having limited amounts of high quality Chinese data to train on doesn’t really decrease or affect the appeal of these models to the rest of the world. I don’t think the CCP is restricting or limiting the datasets that models can be trained on. Also the models themselves don’t even seem to be censored or restricted that much. If the Chinese government is fine with the guardrails being on the API level and maybe even restricts the usage of external providers that’s again a net benefit to everyone else since they would have little incentives to force Chinese companies to lobotomize their models. You are probably about capacity so we can only hope that Huawei and others can catch up and break Nvidia’s monopoly (since Intel and AMD suck too much too much to accomplish anything useful that’s the next best thing) Also Chinese labs are actually still publishing research publicly which alone would accelerate and increase the competitiveness of open AI models developed in the US or even Europe.

kay_o 2mo ago

> may lose dominance in 1 or 2 years In some portions they already lost dominance. My claude will happily generate disgustingly vulnerable code then flag me for ToS violation when I ask it to make sure the code that it just made, in the same context window, in the same conversation is safe and doesn't have glaring holes. Also great to be charged $xx.xx+ amounts and then it refuses to answer without refunding it.

999900000999 2mo ago

I’m talking about our overall economic dominance. We’re still the most powerful economy on earth, but I can’t imagine this continuing forever.

inigyou 2mo ago
By what metric - GDP? That measures price level, not economic power.
- mctaylor 2mo ago
  Most expensive groceries, rents, and healthcare in the world! Winning!
  - tw1984 2mo ago
    stupidly large number of lawyers as well. fixed for you.
- frostyel 2mo ago
  > By what metric imperial
  - inigyou 2mo ago
    funny joke so I vouched it, but you should know you've been shadowbanned since your first ever comment.

ngl999 2mo ago

They won't. China doesn't have the training capacity and the quality data sets, the former because of access to fabs, the latter because of internal censorship that is getting worse by day. Simple as that.

decimalenough 2mo ago
The current panic is happening precisely because Chinese open weight models like Kimi and Qwen are demonstrably competitive with SotA models like Fable, but far cheaper. https://fireworks.ai/blog/kimik3-fable https://fireworks.ai/blog/kimik3-fable
- ngl999 2mo ago
  No, the Chinese tech companies routinely super optimize for a given 'famous' or 'established' or 'mainstream' benchmarks. Any other concern is secondary. In other words, they look good on surface, but suck whenever anyone put them to any serious use. That's why they are cheap, they have to be cheap because they suck.
  - numpad0 2mo ago
    how can you say that with a username of "ngl999", that doesn't make sense (IIUC, -ngl [NUM_LAYERS] specify number of layers to offload to GPU in llama.cpp, 999 on most use cases might as well be -1)
    - ngl999 2mo ago
      what relation does a username string have to the observations I made?
wasfgwp 2mo ago
> the latter because of internal censorship Having limited amounts of high quality Chinese data to train on doesn’t really decrease or affect the appeal of these models to the rest of the world. I don’t think the CCP is restricting or limiting the datasets that models can be trained on. Also the models themselves don’t even seem to be censored or restricted that much. If the Chinese government is fine with the guardrails being on the API level and maybe even restricts the usage of external providers that’s again a net benefit to everyone else since they would have little incentives to force Chinese companies to lobotomize their models. You are probably about capacity so we can only hope that Huawei and others can catch up and break Nvidia’s monopoly (since Intel and AMD suck too much too much to accomplish anything useful that’s the next best thing) Also Chinese labs are actually still publishing research publicly which alone would accelerate and increase the competitiveness of open AI models developed in the US or even Europe.