7 ms·

I gotta know what you use stats for regarding paintball. I haven't played in years but I loved playing back in the tipman 98 custom era (not sure if that's stil

by xeromal 2mo ago

I gotta know what you use stats for regarding paintball. I haven't played in years but I loved playing back in the tipman 98 custom era (not sure if that's still a popular marker).

sigmarule 2mo ago
That era is now! (Still)
- alexpotato 2mo ago
  Paintball had a peak in the mid-2000s (I would say 2006) due to a combination of: - Millenials who were kids of the baby boomers being in their late teens early 20s - Disposable income due to the real estate bubble / positive consumer sentiment It dropped off a lot after the 2008 GFC though. BUT A lot of those kids playing in the mid 2000s are now parents of ~10 year olds so apparently there is a bit of a resurgence going on.
  - goosejuice 2mo ago
    There was even a hl mod with an esports league.
sota_pop 2mo ago
Wow, a blast from the past to be sure. Was not but any means avid, but did own a tipman. And was always dazzled when someone showed up with an angel.
alexpotato 2mo ago
So I wrote a whole bunch about college paintball statistics here: https://www.pbnation.com/showthread.php?t=3949120 https://www.pbnation.com/showthread.php?t=3949120 Then I wrote some more about pro paintball stats in the below three Reddit posts: 1. https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1h17f2m/intro_to_paintball_game_theory_and_why_i_think/ https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1h17f2m/intro_to... 2. https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1jy5xqp/paintball_game_theory_comparing_pro_players/ https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1jy5xqp/paintbal... 3. https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1k6bzi7/paintball_game_theory_ranking_pro_players_of_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1k6bzi7/paintbal... Some highlights: - I started with just pen, paper and a stopwatch (as a college coach) - I assumed paintball would be more like football where it's hard to track individual effects - Turns out it's a surprisingly simple and stable "state machine". e.g. the odds of winning with +1 body (e.g. 5v4, 4v3 etc) is, in college, about ~75% - Paintball is one of those sports where "the weakest player determines the outcome". Why? b/c if 1 player gets out early, you are fighting out of a hole. It also made me appreciate that as good a book as Moneyball is, reading it after you try to create analytics for your own sport makes it 3x as enjoyable/insightful. One downside though: I would watch games and I got so good at internalizing the stats per state of the game that it was like watching the world series of poker where I could see both player odds of getting eliminated and probability of winning over time charts as I watched the games. Made it harder to be the "come on guys! we can win this" coach when we were down on points + bodies.
- nugator 2mo ago
  > Made it harder to be the "come on guys! we can win this" coach when we were down on points + bodies. Would you say that paintball on that level is almost deterministic? Compared to, for example, (American) football where momentum and perseverance can turn games around completely.
vrighter 2mo ago
same here. Then I started writing a path tracer and now i think in probabilities

by xeromal 2mo ago

I gotta know what you use stats for regarding paintball. I haven't played in years but I loved playing back in the tipman 98 custom era (not sure if that's still a popular marker).

sigmarule 2mo ago

That era is now! (Still)

alexpotato 2mo ago
Paintball had a peak in the mid-2000s (I would say 2006) due to a combination of: - Millenials who were kids of the baby boomers being in their late teens early 20s - Disposable income due to the real estate bubble / positive consumer sentiment It dropped off a lot after the 2008 GFC though. BUT A lot of those kids playing in the mid 2000s are now parents of ~10 year olds so apparently there is a bit of a resurgence going on.
- goosejuice 2mo ago
  There was even a hl mod with an esports league.

sota_pop 2mo ago

Wow, a blast from the past to be sure. Was not but any means avid, but did own a tipman. And was always dazzled when someone showed up with an angel.

alexpotato 2mo ago

So I wrote a whole bunch about college paintball statistics here: https://www.pbnation.com/showthread.php?t=3949120 https://www.pbnation.com/showthread.php?t=3949120 Then I wrote some more about pro paintball stats in the below three Reddit posts: 1. https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1h17f2m/intro_to_paintball_game_theory_and_why_i_think/ https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1h17f2m/intro_to... 2. https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1jy5xqp/paintball_game_theory_comparing_pro_players/ https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1jy5xqp/paintbal... 3. https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1k6bzi7/paintball_game_theory_ranking_pro_players_of_the/ https://www.reddit.com/r/paintball/comments/1k6bzi7/paintbal... Some highlights: - I started with just pen, paper and a stopwatch (as a college coach) - I assumed paintball would be more like football where it's hard to track individual effects - Turns out it's a surprisingly simple and stable "state machine". e.g. the odds of winning with +1 body (e.g. 5v4, 4v3 etc) is, in college, about ~75% - Paintball is one of those sports where "the weakest player determines the outcome". Why? b/c if 1 player gets out early, you are fighting out of a hole. It also made me appreciate that as good a book as Moneyball is, reading it after you try to create analytics for your own sport makes it 3x as enjoyable/insightful. One downside though: I would watch games and I got so good at internalizing the stats per state of the game that it was like watching the world series of poker where I could see both player odds of getting eliminated and probability of winning over time charts as I watched the games. Made it harder to be the "come on guys! we can win this" coach when we were down on points + bodies.

nugator 2mo ago
> Made it harder to be the "come on guys! we can win this" coach when we were down on points + bodies. Would you say that paintball on that level is almost deterministic? Compared to, for example, (American) football where momentum and perseverance can turn games around completely.

vrighter 2mo ago

same here. Then I started writing a path tracer and now i think in probabilities