7 ms·
I've updated the magic weights, and I too can get the result I want: WEIGHTS = { 'w_xg': 0.09, 'w_goals': -0.07, 'w_star': 0.018, '
by bArray 2mo ago
I've updated the magic weights, and I too can get the result I want:
WEIGHTS = {
'w_xg': 0.09,
'w_goals': -0.07,
'w_star': 0.018,
'w_value': 0.18,
'w_rank': 0.4,
'w_def': -0.12,
'xga_share': 0.85,
'w_gk': 0.0042
}
$ python3 worldcup_model.py --sims 100000
2026 FIFA World Cup -- championship probabilities (100,000 simulations, from Round of 32)
1. England 11.7% *
2. France 10.0% *
3. Spain 9.3% *
4. Argentina 8.4%
5. Germany 8.1%
It's coming home!
- leosanchez 2mo agoNot with Tucheliban
- elombn 2mo agoNot with tuchel Ball
- fabioricardo7 2mo agoMaybe in an alternate reality. Jokes aside, discovering the right weights to match the current fixture, along with the limited data available, were the key challenges in forecasting at such an early stage.