7 ms·
The baseline matters here: favorites win World Cups all the time. How often would "always pick the two pre-tournament favorites" have gotten the champion in the
by kunxue 2mo ago
The baseline matters here: favorites win World Cups all the time. How often would "always pick the two pre-tournament favorites" have gotten the champion in these same 10 tournaments? Without that comparison, 10/10 tells us basically nothing.
- decimalenough 2mo agoFrance was far and away the pre-tournament favorite for 2026, if anything it's somewhat impressive that OP's model correctly predicted that they wouldn't make it. Here's hoping they were right for England as well, but we'll find out soon enough.
- fabioricardo7 2mo agoThat was exactly the point I was trying to make in this preprint. I appreciate your comment.