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If demographics are a problem for chipmaking in China, then it's good to compare against key chipmaking countries. To compare, 2024 (UN) fertility rates (highe

by dhx 2mo ago

If demographics are a problem for chipmaking in China, then it's good to compare against key chipmaking countries. To compare, 2024 (UN) fertility rates (highest-lowest):[1] US: 1.62 Japan: 1.23 China: 1.02 ROC: 0.86 ROK: 0.75 (where an increase to 0.8 in 2025 was cause for celebration, as is a predicted increase to 0.85 by mid 2026)[2] Alternatively (and perhaps accounting for migration etc), UN 2024 forecasts population differences in these countries between 2024-2050 as:[3] US: +10% Japan: -16% China: -8% ROC: -6% ROK: -12% [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate#Country_ranking_by_international_organizations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer... [2] https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2026/01/24/IVHGRTNWXBHH3DNZRE4UNVBC4U/ https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2026/01/24/IVHGRT... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_future_population#UN_Forecast_2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_...

cyberax 2mo ago
One thing missing is that the population growth in the US is mostly reliant on immigration (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-summary-tables.html https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-su...). And our most favoritest political party is working on stopping it.
FuriouslyAdrift 2mo ago
Chipmaking is not a high labor industry (other than during the building of plants). China's one big advantage over other work forces is massive amounts of labor that can be directed by central planning. As their labor costs have gone up, labor intensive manufacturing has already started shifting away. When population declines cause labor costs to go even higher, they lose their advantage.
- Forgeties79 2mo ago
  It is impossible to overstate how disastrous the 1CP was and continues to be for China. They will likely never recover from it.
christina97 2mo ago
Note that the (total) fertility rate normalizes away the population age distribution, and is often misleading. It does not tell you the actual increase/decrease in population. The US age pyramid is slightly more favorable than the Chinese one, and in particular China is about to face huge societal headwinds due to a large number of old people compared to young working age people.

by dhx 2mo ago

cyberax 2mo ago

One thing missing is that the population growth in the US is mostly reliant on immigration (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-summary-tables.html https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-su...). And our most favoritest political party is working on stopping it.

FuriouslyAdrift 2mo ago

Chipmaking is not a high labor industry (other than during the building of plants). China's one big advantage over other work forces is massive amounts of labor that can be directed by central planning. As their labor costs have gone up, labor intensive manufacturing has already started shifting away. When population declines cause labor costs to go even higher, they lose their advantage.

Forgeties79 2mo ago
It is impossible to overstate how disastrous the 1CP was and continues to be for China. They will likely never recover from it.

christina97 2mo ago

Note that the (total) fertility rate normalizes away the population age distribution, and is often misleading. It does not tell you the actual increase/decrease in population. The US age pyramid is slightly more favorable than the Chinese one, and in particular China is about to face huge societal headwinds due to a large number of old people compared to young working age people.