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Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced. A particular trade that can 2
by chucksmash 2mo ago
Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced.
A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion.
It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment.
If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillion out.
- kennywinker 2mo agoStock market’s got plenty to spare
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- danaris 2mo agoBut if these "superforecasters" can forecast just about anything accurately—which seems to be the claim—then they're not limited to any one claim, or even a small subset of them. They can place bets on everything and expect to win most of the time. This doesn't pass the smell test.