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> once the RAM bottleneck passes Do we have evidence that this will actually happen? Maybe the belief that it won't pass is what requires evidence, but I think
by mwcampbell 3mo ago
> once the RAM bottleneck passes
Do we have evidence that this will actually happen? Maybe the belief that it won't pass is what requires evidence, but I think there's a widespread feeling right now that things are just getting permanently worse and this is one example.
- justincormack 3mo agoMicron have sold RAM for the next 4 years at current prices, so there are buyers expecting this to stay the same.
- api 3mo agoThat means buyers have basically purchased options. If the price falls, they're underwater a little, but if the price spikes it protects them. People do that all the time, and sometimes it doesn't pay off.
- api 3mo agoIt'll probably take a few years. There's many fabs under construction. One thing holding back capacity expansion is that a lot of people are concerned this is a bubble. They're worried it'll pop and leave them with orphaned assets if they over-invest in production. Of course maybe they're right and that will happen. If the data center construction boom ends, RAM prices will fall.