6 ms·

I like RocketLab. Looking forward to Neutron etc. But this is a bad investment, no other way to put it.

by pelorat 3mo ago

Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
Uncertain what Iridium global RF band allocation holdings were worth. If it is still pole-to-pole global monolithic coverage, than hardware/legacy-protocols are of secondary interest. Modern SDR transceivers with proper RF beam-steering front-ends could retrofit the business while slowly phasing out legacy hardware. But I do agree, Iridium was too pricey for most consumer product markets, and there were several other satellite broadband services. Additionally, Starlink Direct to Cell (VoLTE) service now leverages global cellphone client infrastructure. It would be extremely foolish to compete with something proprietary. =3
petesergeant 3mo ago
> But this is a bad investment Brother, share with us a sentence or two of why you think so
- gangstead 3mo ago
  One question I've tried to answer is: has Iridium ever made enough money to even pay back the cost to put the satellites up. Using Google for all these rough numbers the first constellation cost $5 billion before Iridium (the first company) went bankrupt. For the second generation constellation launched between 2017 and 2019 it says $3 billion (for sats and launch). Compared to $400 million cumulative net income for Iridium (the second company) since bankruptcy restructuring ended in 2009. So as a non-investor (I only have boring index funds, no individual stocks) it seems like Iridium is a bad investment because it's a company that has spent 21+ years to turn $8 billion into $400 million (depending on when you want to start counting). When Amazon bought Globalstar a couple months ago I had the same question and it's pretty much the same answer. For Globalstar there was basically 0 net income so the return on investment looked like it mostly came from spectrum gambling. Maybe that's the value for Iridium as well? Iridium does have some net income of around $100 million last year, but I don't know if RocketLab's vertical integration is going to be enough to flip the script. If RocketLab could have built and launched the Iridium Next constellation for $2 billion in 2017 would $100 million of net income 10 years later be a success?
written-beyond 3mo ago
I can't believe I bought a few shares of IRDM with a few hundred bucks in my trading account. Primarily because it was a RKLB adjacent company with decent fundamentals whos stock price wasn't scraping the sky. I don't know how to feel about this acquisition though. Never thought IRDM would've been a bad investment.
- Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
  The market can't be timed (by honest players), as I remember buying into Ubiquiti Networks at around $12/share thinking I might see a 8% bump after the old legal event subsided. Then just sort of forgot about that tax-sheltered holding for a few years. I also don't do the 3 month portfolio shuffle dance 95% of stock investment people try to ride. The heavy cost of putting stuff in space is still not solved, but broadband and space-LTE service businesses are proven cash flows. They just have to mimic the profitable parts of Starlink. =3 https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/29/rocket-lab-is-set-to-acquire-satellite-telecom-giant-iridium-for-8-billion/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/29/rocket-lab-is-set-...
  - NetMageSCW 3mo ago
    F9 has dropped the cost 10x. Starship will drop it another 10x. When will it be solved?
    - Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
      When both businesses reach a profit mode. Unlikely to happen within the next few years. =3
  - Scoundreller 3mo ago
    I thought starlink would do something to grab the terrestrial market: put up a “satellite” on a tall building and everyone in the city could hammer down self-aiming CPEs as long as they had line-of-sight
    - 3mo ago

I like RocketLab. Looking forward to Neutron etc. But this is a bad investment, no other way to put it.

by pelorat 3mo ago

I like RocketLab. Looking forward to Neutron etc. But this is a bad investment, no other way to put it.

Uncertain what Iridium global RF band allocation holdings were worth. If it is still pole-to-pole global monolithic coverage, than hardware/legacy-protocols are of secondary interest. Modern SDR transceivers with proper RF beam-steering front-ends could retrofit the business while slowly phasing out legacy hardware. But I do agree, Iridium was too pricey for most consumer product markets, and there were several other satellite broadband services. Additionally, Starlink Direct to Cell (VoLTE) service now leverages global cellphone client infrastructure. It would be extremely foolish to compete with something proprietary. =3

petesergeant 3mo ago

> But this is a bad investment Brother, share with us a sentence or two of why you think so

gangstead 3mo ago
One question I've tried to answer is: has Iridium ever made enough money to even pay back the cost to put the satellites up. Using Google for all these rough numbers the first constellation cost $5 billion before Iridium (the first company) went bankrupt. For the second generation constellation launched between 2017 and 2019 it says $3 billion (for sats and launch). Compared to $400 million cumulative net income for Iridium (the second company) since bankruptcy restructuring ended in 2009. So as a non-investor (I only have boring index funds, no individual stocks) it seems like Iridium is a bad investment because it's a company that has spent 21+ years to turn $8 billion into $400 million (depending on when you want to start counting). When Amazon bought Globalstar a couple months ago I had the same question and it's pretty much the same answer. For Globalstar there was basically 0 net income so the return on investment looked like it mostly came from spectrum gambling. Maybe that's the value for Iridium as well? Iridium does have some net income of around $100 million last year, but I don't know if RocketLab's vertical integration is going to be enough to flip the script. If RocketLab could have built and launched the Iridium Next constellation for $2 billion in 2017 would $100 million of net income 10 years later be a success?

written-beyond 3mo ago

I can't believe I bought a few shares of IRDM with a few hundred bucks in my trading account. Primarily because it was a RKLB adjacent company with decent fundamentals whos stock price wasn't scraping the sky. I don't know how to feel about this acquisition though. Never thought IRDM would've been a bad investment.

Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
The market can't be timed (by honest players), as I remember buying into Ubiquiti Networks at around $12/share thinking I might see a 8% bump after the old legal event subsided. Then just sort of forgot about that tax-sheltered holding for a few years. I also don't do the 3 month portfolio shuffle dance 95% of stock investment people try to ride. The heavy cost of putting stuff in space is still not solved, but broadband and space-LTE service businesses are proven cash flows. They just have to mimic the profitable parts of Starlink. =3 https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/29/rocket-lab-is-set-to-acquire-satellite-telecom-giant-iridium-for-8-billion/ https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/29/rocket-lab-is-set-...
- NetMageSCW 3mo ago
  F9 has dropped the cost 10x. Starship will drop it another 10x. When will it be solved?
  - Joel_Mckay 3mo ago
    When both businesses reach a profit mode. Unlikely to happen within the next few years. =3
- Scoundreller 3mo ago
  I thought starlink would do something to grab the terrestrial market: put up a “satellite” on a tall building and everyone in the city could hammer down self-aiming CPEs as long as they had line-of-sight
  - 3mo ago