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A few thoughts: 1. Chat, being 3 yr old, is a fairly mature and solved problem today. Top companies aren't even talking about it anymore! Gemma 31B does it ama

A few thoughts: 1. Chat, being 3 yr old, is a fairly mature and solved problem today. Top companies aren't even talking about it anymore! Gemma 31B does it amazingly well (for $0.4/1M token output). Practically every near-SoTA and SoTA model does simple "chat-like" QA amazingly well -- summarization, basic question answering, single- or few-step search. 2. Tasks -- or knowledge work on a computer -- are the new frontier. Computers have become competent only recently, and only for some of the tasks so far. I'd guess another 2-3 yr development cycle, after which "el cheapo" models will be virtually indistinguishable from SoTA. As tasks are the new game in town, AI labs can still charge a premium for it. That premium has disappeared already for chat; most users cannot tell 99% correct answer from 95% correct answer; nor do they always wish for maximum accuracy. 3. What comes after Tasks? I think today's AI startups should figure that one out and solve it before everyone else.

nok22kon 3mo ago
Jobs come next after Tasks
- starchild3001 3mo ago
  When the overall economy grows, the demand for human labor often grows with it — it doesn’t shrink. That has been the story of 200+ years of industrialization: new technology eliminates some jobs, but it also creates new industries, new demand, and new kinds of work. We heard the same panic about radiologists. In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton famously suggested we should stop training radiologists because AI would outperform them. Yet in 2026, we need more radiologists, not fewer. The job is changing, not disappearing. You even see a similar dynamic with immigration. Immigrants don’t just “take jobs”; they also create demand, start businesses, pay taxes, and expand the market. Remove them, and the economy often shrinks — meaning fewer jobs overall, not more. TL;DR: AI is not simply “coming for your job.” Yes, the nature of work will change. We no longer employ “human calculators,” but society didn’t run out of work. We created better, more productive jobs than doing arithmetic by hand all day.

nok22kon 3mo ago

Jobs come next after Tasks

starchild3001 3mo ago
When the overall economy grows, the demand for human labor often grows with it — it doesn’t shrink. That has been the story of 200+ years of industrialization: new technology eliminates some jobs, but it also creates new industries, new demand, and new kinds of work. We heard the same panic about radiologists. In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton famously suggested we should stop training radiologists because AI would outperform them. Yet in 2026, we need more radiologists, not fewer. The job is changing, not disappearing. You even see a similar dynamic with immigration. Immigrants don’t just “take jobs”; they also create demand, start businesses, pay taxes, and expand the market. Remove them, and the economy often shrinks — meaning fewer jobs overall, not more. TL;DR: AI is not simply “coming for your job.” Yes, the nature of work will change. We no longer employ “human calculators,” but society didn’t run out of work. We created better, more productive jobs than doing arithmetic by hand all day.