4 ms·
Be a Bayesian, and they'll stop annoying you. If you have a 5% chance of thermonuclear war each decade for 10 decades, you'll: - Hear similar annoying stateme
by frognumber 3mo ago
Be a Bayesian, and they'll stop annoying you.
If you have a 5% chance of thermonuclear war each decade for 10 decades, you'll:
- Hear similar annoying statements
- They'll be true
With AI, we don't know if it's one week or one decade. This means we should assign probabilities and consider all possibilities, not get annoyed.
- al_borland 3mo agoAssigning, and more specifically announcing/reporting on, all possibilities makes all of these predictions meaningless. If I predict the world will end every single day from now until forever, I will most certainly be right eventually. That doesn’t make me an “expert” or someone worth listening to on the topic. That’s the playbook of a doomsday cult, not anyone that should drive world markets.
- frognumber 3mo agos/all possibilities/all possibilities with odds greater than some threshold/g There's no reason to report on the odds of a meteor falling on my head tomorrow. There is every reason to consider the odds of: - Nuclear apocalypse (esp. Cold War era) - Bioweapon - Climate change leading to disaster - AI apocalypse - Etc. None of those are infinitesimal odds. That contrasts with, say, a zombie virus.