8 ms·

It's the last bump before I liquidate all my stocks. I predict that the crash will come at the end or the beginning of the next president which is likely democr

It's the last bump before I liquidate all my stocks. I predict that the crash will come at the end or the beginning of the next president which is likely democrat. Not that it's democrat's fault but democrat is more disciplined

LPisGood 3mo ago
I have some thoughts on that. It’s possible that the current administration’s lack of oversight has artificially propped up the stock market. If the next president decides to return to a more traditional rules based structure, the market will probably react very poorly. US debt is also getting more expensive and interest is ballooning. Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the capabilities of the strongest research universities will also mean there is probably hell to pay in the medium term.
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. This cannot go on for much longer. I will be parking my money at a safer place
  - zahlman 3mo ago
    > The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. A quick glance at charts shows that VIX is not at all out of line with historical patterns, and asking ChatGPT to crunch some numbers confirms that. The "liberation day" spike was not nearly as bad as in 2008 or for COVID, and in fact not much more than events in 2010 and 2011 that people don't even have names for.
- Sabinus 3mo ago
  My fear is that Trump will keep the show going until the end of his term but generally destroy the market's fundamental health and stability. Then a Dem president tries to re-rationalise the markets, they can't handle the correction, there's a crash, and with the backlash the USA is set up for a real spicy government.
newaccountman2 3mo ago
That's like 2.5 years from now--you don't think crash will happen before then?
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  I think it may happen before then. That's why I'm thinking of liquidating it soon-ish. Trump is doing too much crazy things. He cannot prop up the market for that long. I plan to put most of the money in US t-bill (4 week) to earn 3% for now.
  - cosmicgadget 3mo ago
    Check out spring of 2020. Rate cuts and QE if he can get control of the Fed.
mhb 3mo ago
And what are you going to do with that money?
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  US t-bill (4w) until the market crashes. For 401K, I'll just move it to money market/bond. We don't really need to maximize the profits all the time. Not losing the money is good too.
zahlman 3mo ago
Time in the market beats timing the market, bears have predicted (large number) out of the last (smaller number) recessions, etc. None of this is novel. "Predicting" a stock crash due to political reasons is effectively just a fancy restatement of anti-those-politics views; and it isn't substantive, especially when the prediction comes with a years-long window.
- cosmicgadget 3mo ago
  You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.
  - ergocoder 3mo ago
    Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money. Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.
    - cosmicgadget 3mo ago
      "But my 401k advisor showed me a chart!"
    - zahlman 3mo ago
      It took me quite a while to figure out that the two of you are using "port" as short for "portfolio". Never heard that before. "The wealthy people" got wealthy in a whole bunch of different ways that are not investment; and having gained wealth, they invest it for many different reasons aside from maximizing log-mean expectation (or probability of sustaining a given level of cash flow, or other objective metrics that only consider the investment itself). Hiring a well-compensated "hedge" fund manager (many of these funds are not at all about hedging) is barely any more "effort" than buying and holding SPY, as the work is being entirely delegated. Many strategies are dependent on that level of wealth (or designed to address problems that only apply to that level of wealth) for tax-related reasons. There is plenty of evidence that most lay people who try to time the market lose out on average, and I see no reason to expect you to be an exception. Active trading loses out on average to indexes by mathematical necessity, as both grow on average proportional to the total value of equities, but active traders (and holders of actively managed funds) are exposed to higher fees. The only winners there are the market makers.

LPisGood 3mo ago

I have some thoughts on that. It’s possible that the current administration’s lack of oversight has artificially propped up the stock market. If the next president decides to return to a more traditional rules based structure, the market will probably react very poorly. US debt is also getting more expensive and interest is ballooning. Making the country less desirable to the most skilled immigrants and eroding the capabilities of the strongest research universities will also mean there is probably hell to pay in the medium term.

ergocoder 3mo ago
The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. This cannot go on for much longer. I will be parking my money at a safer place
- zahlman 3mo ago
  > The swing of the market based on the president's crazy tweets is just insane. A quick glance at charts shows that VIX is not at all out of line with historical patterns, and asking ChatGPT to crunch some numbers confirms that. The "liberation day" spike was not nearly as bad as in 2008 or for COVID, and in fact not much more than events in 2010 and 2011 that people don't even have names for.
Sabinus 3mo ago
My fear is that Trump will keep the show going until the end of his term but generally destroy the market's fundamental health and stability. Then a Dem president tries to re-rationalise the markets, they can't handle the correction, there's a crash, and with the backlash the USA is set up for a real spicy government.

newaccountman2 3mo ago

That's like 2.5 years from now--you don't think crash will happen before then?

ergocoder 3mo ago
I think it may happen before then. That's why I'm thinking of liquidating it soon-ish. Trump is doing too much crazy things. He cannot prop up the market for that long. I plan to put most of the money in US t-bill (4 week) to earn 3% for now.
- cosmicgadget 3mo ago
  Check out spring of 2020. Rate cuts and QE if he can get control of the Fed.

mhb 3mo ago

And what are you going to do with that money?

ergocoder 3mo ago
US t-bill (4w) until the market crashes. For 401K, I'll just move it to money market/bond. We don't really need to maximize the profits all the time. Not losing the money is good too.

zahlman 3mo ago

Time in the market beats timing the market, bears have predicted (large number) out of the last (smaller number) recessions, etc. None of this is novel. "Predicting" a stock crash due to political reasons is effectively just a fancy restatement of anti-those-politics views; and it isn't substantive, especially when the prediction comes with a years-long window.

cosmicgadget 3mo ago
You need to caveat this with "... if you want to be lazy and ignorant of your port." Otherwise there is so, so much evidence that it is flat wrong.
- ergocoder 3mo ago
  Yeah, meanwhile all the wealthy people actively manage their port with an insane amount of efforts. They would compensate hedge fund manager with insane amount of money. Then, they turn around and tell average people to forget about the investment. Just park your money in the index fund over the long run. I mean, if you are either stupid or don't have time, then yeah please only do index fund.
  - cosmicgadget 3mo ago
    "But my 401k advisor showed me a chart!"
  - zahlman 3mo ago
    It took me quite a while to figure out that the two of you are using "port" as short for "portfolio". Never heard that before. "The wealthy people" got wealthy in a whole bunch of different ways that are not investment; and having gained wealth, they invest it for many different reasons aside from maximizing log-mean expectation (or probability of sustaining a given level of cash flow, or other objective metrics that only consider the investment itself). Hiring a well-compensated "hedge" fund manager (many of these funds are not at all about hedging) is barely any more "effort" than buying and holding SPY, as the work is being entirely delegated. Many strategies are dependent on that level of wealth (or designed to address problems that only apply to that level of wealth) for tax-related reasons. There is plenty of evidence that most lay people who try to time the market lose out on average, and I see no reason to expect you to be an exception. Active trading loses out on average to indexes by mathematical necessity, as both grow on average proportional to the total value of equities, but active traders (and holders of actively managed funds) are exposed to higher fees. The only winners there are the market makers.