7 ms·

It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.

by poidos 3mo ago

the_af 3mo ago
> It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat. ...or if there's an increase of demand for software, but mostly of the kind that can be completely automated by AI, no need for developers.
SecretDreams 3mo ago
How much does the appetite for good* software need to grow to not have loss of jobs?
aurareturn 3mo ago
Exactly. I see software engineering going the way of accounting or lawyer. Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies, employing a software dev was simply not a thing. Nowadays, your kindergarten might employ a full time or part time software engineer to build custom software. One dev can build a lot more a lot faster. That said, I think the average or below average dev won’t earn $200k/year anymore. However, the top devs will earn more than ever. If AI increases an average dev’s productivity by 10x, then it will increase a top tier dev’s by 100x.
- euwuw 3mo ago
  “ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ” No they won’t. Productivity does not determine the wage rate.
  - aurareturn 3mo ago
    It’s already happening. Top tier devs have two ways of earning way more than before: 1. They can build and sell their own products or services. We are already seeing 1-2 person software companies earning real money. Top devs don’t have to stay in corporate if they think they can generate more revenue on their own. 2. When companies get rid of their B devs without losing productivity, they can pay their A devs more. I’m in the #2 camp right now. My team shrank by 50% through attrition in the last year. We didn’t hire anyone new when someone left. My pay has increased.
    - euwuw 3mo ago
      [flagged]
      - deleted 3mo ago
        [deleted]
      - aurareturn 3mo ago
        I’m not desperate at all. It was my company who was desperate to keep me and gave me a huge pay rise. I was already making top tier money. I threatened to leave to start my own company unless they gave me enough money to make me not want to do it. They did.
        euwuw 3mo ago
        [flagged]
        cindyllm 3mo ago
        [dead]
        aurareturn 3mo ago
        Don't think I need pity from a random person on the internet. ;) Regardless, I didn't say "many". I said top tier. How you define that is up to you. There is already ample evidence for top dev talent earning way more than before whether it's through corporate or starting their own company.
      - mbrumlow 3mo ago
        Your company might fail then. Because I won’t be fighting to work at your company, I’ll just compete with your company and get paid what I deserve. We already have CEOs is vendors trying to scare people away from vibe coding their contract away, while I diligently vibe code their contract away. Not much new here as my entire career has been coding away 3rd party contracts, and it’s now easier than ever.
  - amelius 3mo ago
    > “ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ” The AI companies will skim all the extra profits.
  - vanuatu 3mo ago
    curious as to why most top swe comp comes from equity in the company, which benefits from productivity not only that but the leveraged nature of swe means top performers are in perpetual shortage and low performers contribute negative productivity anecdotally weve seen comp rise as the best candidates have multiple competing offers as well as the freedom to start their own business
    - aurareturn 3mo ago
      Because companies can hire one great Dev for $300k instead of 5 mediocre ones for $150k each and get better results.
      - vanuatu 3mo ago
        That supports my point right? Top devs make more than before
        aurareturn 3mo ago
        Yes. I agreed with your point.
  - borski 3mo ago
    It does, in the higher echelons of performance / seniority. Junior wages won’t change, and may even get lower. But, at least at present, the top devs are earning more than ever as their skills are much more leveraged. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
- swid 3mo ago
  Because there is so much money for kindergarten teachers, paying an extra salary for a software dev for every kindergarten will certainly lead to better outcomes. The computer programs will make up for the lost teacher economically by teaching the children instead of people, raising the market share of my local kindergarten, or enticing people to have more babies. \s
- vanuatu 3mo ago
  It's even better than accounting or lawyers, because good software engineers can build incredible businesses from scratch instead of being tied to the number of businesses that exist SWEs are more leveraged than ever and we've seen comp drastically rise for top performers

It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.

by poidos 3mo ago

It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat.

> It only puts 90% of developers out of a job if the demand for software stays flat. ...or if there's an increase of demand for software, but mostly of the kind that can be completely automated by AI, no need for developers.

SecretDreams 3mo ago

How much does the appetite for good* software need to grow to not have loss of jobs?

aurareturn 3mo ago

Exactly. I see software engineering going the way of accounting or lawyer. Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies, employing a software dev was simply not a thing. Nowadays, your kindergarten might employ a full time or part time software engineer to build custom software. One dev can build a lot more a lot faster. That said, I think the average or below average dev won’t earn $200k/year anymore. However, the top devs will earn more than ever. If AI increases an average dev’s productivity by 10x, then it will increase a top tier dev’s by 100x.

euwuw 3mo ago
“ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ” No they won’t. Productivity does not determine the wage rate.
- aurareturn 3mo ago
  It’s already happening. Top tier devs have two ways of earning way more than before: 1. They can build and sell their own products or services. We are already seeing 1-2 person software companies earning real money. Top devs don’t have to stay in corporate if they think they can generate more revenue on their own. 2. When companies get rid of their B devs without losing productivity, they can pay their A devs more. I’m in the #2 camp right now. My team shrank by 50% through attrition in the last year. We didn’t hire anyone new when someone left. My pay has increased.
  - euwuw 3mo ago
    [flagged]
    - deleted 3mo ago
      [deleted]
    - aurareturn 3mo ago
      I’m not desperate at all. It was my company who was desperate to keep me and gave me a huge pay rise. I was already making top tier money. I threatened to leave to start my own company unless they gave me enough money to make me not want to do it. They did.
      - euwuw 3mo ago
        [flagged]
        cindyllm 3mo ago
        [dead]
        aurareturn 3mo ago
        Don't think I need pity from a random person on the internet. ;) Regardless, I didn't say "many". I said top tier. How you define that is up to you. There is already ample evidence for top dev talent earning way more than before whether it's through corporate or starting their own company.
    - mbrumlow 3mo ago
      Your company might fail then. Because I won’t be fighting to work at your company, I’ll just compete with your company and get paid what I deserve. We already have CEOs is vendors trying to scare people away from vibe coding their contract away, while I diligently vibe code their contract away. Not much new here as my entire career has been coding away 3rd party contracts, and it’s now easier than ever.
- amelius 3mo ago
  > “ However, the top devs will earn more than ever. ” The AI companies will skim all the extra profits.
- vanuatu 3mo ago
  curious as to why most top swe comp comes from equity in the company, which benefits from productivity not only that but the leveraged nature of swe means top performers are in perpetual shortage and low performers contribute negative productivity anecdotally weve seen comp rise as the best candidates have multiple competing offers as well as the freedom to start their own business
  - aurareturn 3mo ago
    Because companies can hire one great Dev for $300k instead of 5 mediocre ones for $150k each and get better results.
    - vanuatu 3mo ago
      That supports my point right? Top devs make more than before
      - aurareturn 3mo ago
        Yes. I agreed with your point.
- borski 3mo ago
  It does, in the higher echelons of performance / seniority. Junior wages won’t change, and may even get lower. But, at least at present, the top devs are earning more than ever as their skills are much more leveraged. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
swid 3mo ago
Because there is so much money for kindergarten teachers, paying an extra salary for a software dev for every kindergarten will certainly lead to better outcomes. The computer programs will make up for the lost teacher economically by teaching the children instead of people, raising the market share of my local kindergarten, or enticing people to have more babies. \s
vanuatu 3mo ago
It's even better than accounting or lawyers, because good software engineers can build incredible businesses from scratch instead of being tied to the number of businesses that exist SWEs are more leveraged than ever and we've seen comp drastically rise for top performers