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So you are saying in the end of that piece that chess players came out stronger? You know how? Because AI is forbidden in tournaments and there are plenty of i

by ashd157 4mo ago

So you are saying in the end of that piece that chess players came out stronger? You know how? Because AI is forbidden in tournaments and there are plenty of idle rich sponsors in Chess (it is popular among autocrats). So you are envisioning a future of software development where we have coding competitions sponsored by MBS where AI is forbidden? Like your Pelican meme, which is designed to cutify AI, this is propaganda of the highest order.

oidar 4mo ago
I believe that the average elo of players is increasing since powerful chess AI / Go AI.
- SiempreViernes 4mo ago
  Was the average ELO of players approximately stable before chess engines?
- lunar_mycroft 4mo ago
  Elo is zero sum. Each point gained by one player is lost by another. It follows that the mean elo is always exactly equal to the initial elo assigned to new players before they play any games, and can't change over time. If the highest ranked player are higher elo than before, the lower ranked players must be lower elo.
  - oidar 4mo ago
    >Elo is zero sum. In a closed, static pool only.
    - lunar_mycroft 4mo ago
      Right, but you have to give the new players some rating, and as long as that number remains constant it will also be the mean Elo. Therefore, "new players entering the pool" can't cause a rise in mean Elo. As for lower rated players leaving, that could indeed raise the mean (assuming you stop counting them in the average), but that changes the point from "players have gotten better because of AI" to "worse players are more likely to just give up on chess because of AI", which is a significantly less optimistic picture IMO.
      - rrvsh 4mo ago
        What? I don't think anyone has given up on chess because of computers in my lifetime
        lunar_mycroft 4mo ago
        I didn't say they did. What I said was that if the person I was replying to was correct that average Elo ratings had increased because of AI, the mechanism would have to be "AI makes lower ranked players give up" instead of "AI makes players better on average"
simonw 4mo ago
Hahaha, this is the first time I've seen the pelican thing described as "propaganda"! One of the main reasons I do the pelican thing is that it's making fun of the industry: 1. The smartest model in the world still draws pelicans riding bicycles worse than a five year old. 2. It highlights how absurd the task of comparing these models is. Oh, so it scored 78 on Terminal Bench 2.1? It also drew a crap pelican. > So you are saying in the end of that piece that chess players came out stronger? That was an off-the-cuff remark on the podcast which I included in the transcript. It's not my overall thesis.
- solidasparagus 4mo ago
  I'm gonna need to see some proof on that 5-year-old-draws-pelicans-better claim.
- ericpauley 4mo ago
  Staying out of the larger discussion, but: > The smartest model in the world still draws pelicans riding bicycles worse than a five year old. The bicycle is something that humans are famously bad at drawing: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/18/the-horrible-hilarious-pictures-you-get-when-you-ask-random-people-to-draw-a-bicycle/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/18/the-h...
IncreasePosts 4mo ago
Yes chess players are stronger thanks to AI. Which is why every high level chess player trains with AI, even if it's banned in actual tournaments
bag_boy 4mo ago
A test where a computer draws a pelican riding a bike is propaganda of the highest order?

by ashd157 4mo ago

oidar 4mo ago

I believe that the average elo of players is increasing since powerful chess AI / Go AI.

SiempreViernes 4mo ago
Was the average ELO of players approximately stable before chess engines?
lunar_mycroft 4mo ago
Elo is zero sum. Each point gained by one player is lost by another. It follows that the mean elo is always exactly equal to the initial elo assigned to new players before they play any games, and can't change over time. If the highest ranked player are higher elo than before, the lower ranked players must be lower elo.
- oidar 4mo ago
  >Elo is zero sum. In a closed, static pool only.
  - lunar_mycroft 4mo ago
    Right, but you have to give the new players some rating, and as long as that number remains constant it will also be the mean Elo. Therefore, "new players entering the pool" can't cause a rise in mean Elo. As for lower rated players leaving, that could indeed raise the mean (assuming you stop counting them in the average), but that changes the point from "players have gotten better because of AI" to "worse players are more likely to just give up on chess because of AI", which is a significantly less optimistic picture IMO.
    - rrvsh 4mo ago
      What? I don't think anyone has given up on chess because of computers in my lifetime
      - lunar_mycroft 4mo ago
        I didn't say they did. What I said was that if the person I was replying to was correct that average Elo ratings had increased because of AI, the mechanism would have to be "AI makes lower ranked players give up" instead of "AI makes players better on average"

simonw 4mo ago

Hahaha, this is the first time I've seen the pelican thing described as "propaganda"! One of the main reasons I do the pelican thing is that it's making fun of the industry: 1. The smartest model in the world still draws pelicans riding bicycles worse than a five year old. 2. It highlights how absurd the task of comparing these models is. Oh, so it scored 78 on Terminal Bench 2.1? It also drew a crap pelican. > So you are saying in the end of that piece that chess players came out stronger? That was an off-the-cuff remark on the podcast which I included in the transcript. It's not my overall thesis.

solidasparagus 4mo ago
I'm gonna need to see some proof on that 5-year-old-draws-pelicans-better claim.
ericpauley 4mo ago
Staying out of the larger discussion, but: > The smartest model in the world still draws pelicans riding bicycles worse than a five year old. The bicycle is something that humans are famously bad at drawing: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/18/the-horrible-hilarious-pictures-you-get-when-you-ask-random-people-to-draw-a-bicycle/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/04/18/the-h...

IncreasePosts 4mo ago

Yes chess players are stronger thanks to AI. Which is why every high level chess player trains with AI, even if it's banned in actual tournaments

bag_boy 4mo ago

A test where a computer draws a pelican riding a bike is propaganda of the highest order?