5 ms·

No one inside SpaceX, except for Elon Musk himself? https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/05/spacex-pushed-sniper-theory-with-the-feds-far-more-than-is-publicly-kn

No one inside SpaceX, except for Elon Musk himself? https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/05/spacex-pushed-sniper-theory-with-the-feds-far-more-than-is-publicly-known/ https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/05/spacex-pushed-sniper-t...

mr_toad 4mo ago
Someone should invent a drinking game based on how long it takes for someone to drop Elon’s name in a thread about a totally different aerospace company.
- organsnyder 4mo ago
  He runs the largest, most prominent company in the field, so it's not like it's off-topic.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
bell-cot 4mo ago
From that article - > The “sniper” theory > The lack of a concrete explanation for the failure led SpaceX engineers to pursue hundreds of theories. One was the possibility that an outside “sniper” had shot the rocket. This theory appealed to SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who was asleep at his home in California when the rocket exploded. Within hours of hearing about the failure, Musk gravitated toward the simple answer of a projectile being shot through the rocket. > This is not as crazy as it sounds, and other engineers at SpaceX aside from Musk entertained the possibility, as some circumstantial evidence to support the notion of an outside actor existed. - which sounds fairly close to "don't get caught dismissing our PHB's current crazy idea".
- ASalazarMX 4mo ago
  There's a lot, A LOT of money in play here. Technical reasons are usually the cause, but I wouldn't completely discard sabotage if there's some way they could get away with it, if only to improve procedures.
  - bell-cot 4mo ago
    (Assuming you are referring to last night's incident, not the 2016 one.) No, I wouldn't completely discard it. Nor would I limit sabotage scenarios to stealthy snipers. It could be anything from a suicidal pyromaniac with a hammer to a hacker messing with engine control software and prediction markets, to a nation-state actor.
- BurningFrog 4mo ago
  Also, if your billion dollar rocket can be destroyed by a $2 bullet, maybe you need to look at hardening your design.
  - mapt 4mo ago
    A sufficiently advanced technological field is one where any expert would start laughing at you for suggesting "hardening" against bullets. The denominator for rockets is always mass. Most of the difficulty is derived from not just doing a thing, but doing it in as lightweight a way possible. There are rocket stages that won't even stand up under their own weight, we have to inflate them like balloons just to move them.
    - bell-cot 4mo ago
      In simpler terms: A bullet-hardened rocket would be about as usable as a lead balloon.
  - verzali 4mo ago
    There are rarely mentioned cases where you do actually want to be able to pierce a rocket with a bullet. Mostly related to recovery (or not...) post-flight.
delichon 4mo ago
> After ULA won an $11 billion block buy contract from the US Air Force to launch high-value military payloads into the early 2020s, Musk sued in April 2014. This guy is so visionary that he sued for an event that wouldn't happen for over six years. Having the prescience of Paul Atreides explains a lot of his success.
- teraflop 4mo ago
  You're misreading that sentence. The contract was awarded for launches "into the 2020s". It wasn't awarded in the 2020s.
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
angry_octet 4mo ago
Is Elon inside SpaceX? I don't think he's had any role at the company other than owner.
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
- panick21_ 4mo ago
  Consider reading a book about SpaceX maybe.

mr_toad 4mo ago

Someone should invent a drinking game based on how long it takes for someone to drop Elon’s name in a thread about a totally different aerospace company.

organsnyder 4mo ago
He runs the largest, most prominent company in the field, so it's not like it's off-topic.
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]

bell-cot 4mo ago

From that article - > The “sniper” theory > The lack of a concrete explanation for the failure led SpaceX engineers to pursue hundreds of theories. One was the possibility that an outside “sniper” had shot the rocket. This theory appealed to SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who was asleep at his home in California when the rocket exploded. Within hours of hearing about the failure, Musk gravitated toward the simple answer of a projectile being shot through the rocket. > This is not as crazy as it sounds, and other engineers at SpaceX aside from Musk entertained the possibility, as some circumstantial evidence to support the notion of an outside actor existed. - which sounds fairly close to "don't get caught dismissing our PHB's current crazy idea".

ASalazarMX 4mo ago
There's a lot, A LOT of money in play here. Technical reasons are usually the cause, but I wouldn't completely discard sabotage if there's some way they could get away with it, if only to improve procedures.
- bell-cot 4mo ago
  (Assuming you are referring to last night's incident, not the 2016 one.) No, I wouldn't completely discard it. Nor would I limit sabotage scenarios to stealthy snipers. It could be anything from a suicidal pyromaniac with a hammer to a hacker messing with engine control software and prediction markets, to a nation-state actor.
BurningFrog 4mo ago
Also, if your billion dollar rocket can be destroyed by a $2 bullet, maybe you need to look at hardening your design.
- mapt 4mo ago
  A sufficiently advanced technological field is one where any expert would start laughing at you for suggesting "hardening" against bullets. The denominator for rockets is always mass. Most of the difficulty is derived from not just doing a thing, but doing it in as lightweight a way possible. There are rocket stages that won't even stand up under their own weight, we have to inflate them like balloons just to move them.
  - bell-cot 4mo ago
    In simpler terms: A bullet-hardened rocket would be about as usable as a lead balloon.
- verzali 4mo ago
  There are rarely mentioned cases where you do actually want to be able to pierce a rocket with a bullet. Mostly related to recovery (or not...) post-flight.

delichon 4mo ago

> After ULA won an $11 billion block buy contract from the US Air Force to launch high-value military payloads into the early 2020s, Musk sued in April 2014. This guy is so visionary that he sued for an event that wouldn't happen for over six years. Having the prescience of Paul Atreides explains a lot of his success.

teraflop 4mo ago
You're misreading that sentence. The contract was awarded for launches "into the 2020s". It wasn't awarded in the 2020s.

deleted 4mo ago

[deleted]

angry_octet 4mo ago

Is Elon inside SpaceX? I don't think he's had any role at the company other than owner.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
panick21_ 4mo ago
Consider reading a book about SpaceX maybe.