7 ms·

you just need to look at Mythos to see the jump in performance from a 10T(?) model. As they scale, they get more capable. We might have an yearly release, but

you just need to look at Mythos to see the jump in performance from a 10T(?) model. As they scale, they get more capable. We might have an yearly release, but I believe the releases will continue, as long as scaling laws are in tact, and there's huge problems still need solving. (think cancer)

phainopepla2 4mo ago
And how are we meant to look at Mythos? Do you have access?
- OtomotO 4mo ago
  Through the lenses of anthropic's marketing department of course
- dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 4mo ago
  Through association with a large company: https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing Ive seen the tickets generated by the model that have trickled to my team. They are legitimate, but i can’t speak to model improvement because its a pilot program.
- bigfishrunning 4mo ago
  no but they tell me it's TERRIFYING and DANGEROUS and we should INVEST MORE MONEY
aj_hackman 4mo ago
You forget that these models are still only interpolating between human-generated datapoints fed to them. They cannot reason beyond the data they've been given, so unless everything you want to create with AI is a synthesis of prior art, you're back to relying on the stone-age human brain that created AI in the first place.
- mofeien 4mo ago
  Not all training data is human generated, and it's also not clear that being ridiculously good at interpolating between data points (whatever that means) will not lead to superhuman capabilities.
  - aj_hackman 4mo ago
    I could make a robotic picture coloring machine with truly superhuman capabilities - picking only the most beautiful color combinations and staying 100% in the lines while finishing entire murals in < 1 second. However, if you need a completely new and original image rendered, the machine is of only partial utility for you. It is very well possible that your cure for cancer (if that's even feasible) or whatever else you desire is a completely new picture. We have these breathless conversations about the new AI frontier at the peril of losing sight of reality and our own human potential.
- suttontom 4mo ago
  Do you know if anyone has trained, say, a pre-2017 model and tried to get it to come up with Attention Is All You Need? If it did, would you say that was only because it's a synthesis of prior art? If so, what isn't?
  - aj_hackman 4mo ago
    Allow me to restate my point: human beings and AI both create via synthesis, but we are the only ones capable of what we could categorize as true original thought or creativity. It could be argued that nothing we do as humans is truly original or creative either, but I would counter that with the claim that an LLM could not have created any element of the society and culture that gave birth to LLMs. Maybe in six more months.
    - coldtea 4mo ago
      >human beings and AI both create via synthesis, but we are the only ones capable of what we could categorize as true original thought or creativity. And how is that anything other than synthesis? Do we pull concepts out of thin air?
coldtea 4mo ago
>you just need to look at Mythos to see the jump in performance from a 10T(?) model Mythos is a bunch of likely overhyped claims at this point. A few experts who looked into the claimed results weren't that impressed.
- giwook 4mo ago
  And there seems to be a ton of experts on the opposite side. As they say, the truth tends to be somewhere in the middle.
- astrange 4mo ago
  They all looked like real CVEs to me.
  - coldtea 4mo ago
    Nothing that special about finding a real CVE. They're not that different than what non-Mythos could spot.

phainopepla2 4mo ago

And how are we meant to look at Mythos? Do you have access?

OtomotO 4mo ago
Through the lenses of anthropic's marketing department of course
dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 4mo ago
Through association with a large company: https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing https://www.anthropic.com/glasswing Ive seen the tickets generated by the model that have trickled to my team. They are legitimate, but i can’t speak to model improvement because its a pilot program.
bigfishrunning 4mo ago
no but they tell me it's TERRIFYING and DANGEROUS and we should INVEST MORE MONEY

aj_hackman 4mo ago

You forget that these models are still only interpolating between human-generated datapoints fed to them. They cannot reason beyond the data they've been given, so unless everything you want to create with AI is a synthesis of prior art, you're back to relying on the stone-age human brain that created AI in the first place.

mofeien 4mo ago
Not all training data is human generated, and it's also not clear that being ridiculously good at interpolating between data points (whatever that means) will not lead to superhuman capabilities.
- aj_hackman 4mo ago
  I could make a robotic picture coloring machine with truly superhuman capabilities - picking only the most beautiful color combinations and staying 100% in the lines while finishing entire murals in < 1 second. However, if you need a completely new and original image rendered, the machine is of only partial utility for you. It is very well possible that your cure for cancer (if that's even feasible) or whatever else you desire is a completely new picture. We have these breathless conversations about the new AI frontier at the peril of losing sight of reality and our own human potential.
suttontom 4mo ago
Do you know if anyone has trained, say, a pre-2017 model and tried to get it to come up with Attention Is All You Need? If it did, would you say that was only because it's a synthesis of prior art? If so, what isn't?
- aj_hackman 4mo ago
  Allow me to restate my point: human beings and AI both create via synthesis, but we are the only ones capable of what we could categorize as true original thought or creativity. It could be argued that nothing we do as humans is truly original or creative either, but I would counter that with the claim that an LLM could not have created any element of the society and culture that gave birth to LLMs. Maybe in six more months.
  - coldtea 4mo ago
    >human beings and AI both create via synthesis, but we are the only ones capable of what we could categorize as true original thought or creativity. And how is that anything other than synthesis? Do we pull concepts out of thin air?

coldtea 4mo ago

>you just need to look at Mythos to see the jump in performance from a 10T(?) model Mythos is a bunch of likely overhyped claims at this point. A few experts who looked into the claimed results weren't that impressed.

giwook 4mo ago
And there seems to be a ton of experts on the opposite side. As they say, the truth tends to be somewhere in the middle.
astrange 4mo ago
They all looked like real CVEs to me.
- coldtea 4mo ago
  Nothing that special about finding a real CVE. They're not that different than what non-Mythos could spot.