5 ms·

Their stated TAM is bonkers. A total of $28.5 trillion: $370B Space, $1.6T Connectivity, $26.5T in AI. With AI becoming more and more commoditized, the AI numbe

by Geeek 4mo ago

Their stated TAM is bonkers. A total of $28.5 trillion: $370B Space, $1.6T Connectivity, $26.5T in AI. With AI becoming more and more commoditized, the AI number is insane.

tonyhart7 4mo ago
well if they talking future when US gov print money at unbelievable rate then this is very plausible (especially if they can work on space mining)
seattle_spring 4mo ago
That number is grossly inflated for every S-1. It's about as close to meaningless as you could possibly get. For example, I used to work for an insurance-related tech company. They claimed their TAM was $9T-- the value of the entire global insurance market.
LarsDu88 4mo ago
With these kind of made up numbers, they might as well have simply used the fucking Kardeshev scale. Just compute the energy output of the Sun and claim they'll build a Dyson sphere around it. Can charge a nice hefty subscription fee for using the Sun, just like Netflix.
- fragmede 4mo ago
  Shhh, that's SpaceX's real play. Put a giant sun shade between the Earth and the sun, and make everyone on Earth pay for sunlight. No pay? No crops. No food. Solves global warming.
  - dbalatero 4mo ago
    Damn, another Simpsons already did that with Mr. Burns' sun blocker.
    - MPSimmons 4mo ago
      "Since the beginning of time, man has yearned to destroy the sun."
- kentm 4mo ago
  Kardashev Type II is mentioned three times in the doc. > We believe the next paradigm shift for humanity is the creation of a resilient, perpetually expanding spacefaring civilization that drives continuous innovation across new frontiers, ultimately propelling us to Kardashev Type II status—a civilization that harnesses the full energy output of our Sun. To be fair, he's not claiming here that SpaceX will accomplish this themselves, solo.
  - LarsDu88 4mo ago
    Sometimes reality is stranger than fiction. I guess I'll have to buy shares in case I need to pay for my Sun subscription. Perhaps the plan all along was to build enough rockets to blot out the sun over large parts of the Earth so only the space Chads can grow crops.
    - dzhiurgis 4mo ago
      > Sun subscription. I know you are just being cynical, but tbf earth already has too much sun exposure.
- tim333 4mo ago
  I calculated if you price energy at 5c per kWh then $28.5 trillion is much less than a pico Kardashev II. Nothing really.
Zigurd 4mo ago
Where I'm from, TAM has to be real enough that somebody else is making money off of it. But if EBITDA doesn't count the cost of replacing your short lived satellites, who is to say what TAM means anymore.

by Geeek 4mo ago

Their stated TAM is bonkers. A total of $28.5 trillion: $370B Space, $1.6T Connectivity, $26.5T in AI. With AI becoming more and more commoditized, the AI number is insane.

tonyhart7 4mo ago

well if they talking future when US gov print money at unbelievable rate then this is very plausible (especially if they can work on space mining)

seattle_spring 4mo ago

That number is grossly inflated for every S-1. It's about as close to meaningless as you could possibly get. For example, I used to work for an insurance-related tech company. They claimed their TAM was $9T-- the value of the entire global insurance market.

LarsDu88 4mo ago

With these kind of made up numbers, they might as well have simply used the fucking Kardeshev scale. Just compute the energy output of the Sun and claim they'll build a Dyson sphere around it. Can charge a nice hefty subscription fee for using the Sun, just like Netflix.

fragmede 4mo ago
Shhh, that's SpaceX's real play. Put a giant sun shade between the Earth and the sun, and make everyone on Earth pay for sunlight. No pay? No crops. No food. Solves global warming.
- dbalatero 4mo ago
  Damn, another Simpsons already did that with Mr. Burns' sun blocker.
  - MPSimmons 4mo ago
    "Since the beginning of time, man has yearned to destroy the sun."
kentm 4mo ago
Kardashev Type II is mentioned three times in the doc. > We believe the next paradigm shift for humanity is the creation of a resilient, perpetually expanding spacefaring civilization that drives continuous innovation across new frontiers, ultimately propelling us to Kardashev Type II status—a civilization that harnesses the full energy output of our Sun. To be fair, he's not claiming here that SpaceX will accomplish this themselves, solo.
- LarsDu88 4mo ago
  Sometimes reality is stranger than fiction. I guess I'll have to buy shares in case I need to pay for my Sun subscription. Perhaps the plan all along was to build enough rockets to blot out the sun over large parts of the Earth so only the space Chads can grow crops.
  - dzhiurgis 4mo ago
    > Sun subscription. I know you are just being cynical, but tbf earth already has too much sun exposure.
tim333 4mo ago
I calculated if you price energy at 5c per kWh then $28.5 trillion is much less than a pico Kardashev II. Nothing really.

Zigurd 4mo ago

Where I'm from, TAM has to be real enough that somebody else is making money off of it. But if EBITDA doesn't count the cost of replacing your short lived satellites, who is to say what TAM means anymore.