5 ms·

What does that mean?

mh- 5mo ago
I believe they were drawing a parallel to oil commoditization, but that's as far as I got.
JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> What does that mean? I really couldn't have been more obscure, could I? :P In 1932, "the first oil field in the Persian Gulf outside of Iran" was discovered in Bahrain [1]. (The same year Saudi Arabia announced unification [2].) In the end, Saudi Arabia had larger reserves and wound up geopolitically dominating its first-moving rival. In commodities, the game tends to be scale in part through land grabbing. Less who got where first. To close the analogy, if AI does wind up commoditised, the layers at which that commodity is held are probably between power and compute [3]. So if AI commoditises (commodifies?), Google selling computer (and indirectly power) to Anthropic and OpenAI is the smarter play than trying to advantage Gemini. (If AI doesn't commoditise, the opposite may be true–Google is supercharging a competitor.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain_Petroleum_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain_Petroleum_Company [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proclamation_of_the_Kingdom_of_Saudi_Arabia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proclamation_of_the_Kingdom_of... [3] The alternate hypothesis is it's at distribution.
- dmix 5mo ago
  Plus the whole thing of first mover advantage being a myth, especially in the tech industry
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    > Plus the whole thing of first mover advantage being a myth, especially in the tech industry Source? That would be surprising!
    - dmix 5mo ago
      https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advantage https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advant... https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5654eb6ee4b0e19716ec5a92/t/56be95b686db43b5489cb0bd/1455330748283/2005_HBR_The+Half+Truth+of+First+Mover+Advantage.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5654eb6ee4b0e19716ec5... Showing how old I am with that reference A more recent article https://www.productplan.com/learn/first-mover-advantage-fast-follower https://www.productplan.com/learn/first-mover-advantage-fast... I should say it’s “mostly” a myth, there are some fleeting competitive advantages to first mover but a lot of them don’t apply well to tech companies and there isn’t strong historical evidence supporting it.
    - 2df 5mo ago
      Why? Being a first mover only counts for something if it can yield exclusivity that is durable.. you should know this being a VC and all. Real options - hello? If you want to benefit massively off being a first mover, you better do the work in figuring it out how you are going to acquire exclusivity that lasts long enough that keeps most firms out.

mh- 5mo ago

I believe they were drawing a parallel to oil commoditization, but that's as far as I got.

> What does that mean? I really couldn't have been more obscure, could I? :P In 1932, "the first oil field in the Persian Gulf outside of Iran" was discovered in Bahrain [1]. (The same year Saudi Arabia announced unification [2].) In the end, Saudi Arabia had larger reserves and wound up geopolitically dominating its first-moving rival. In commodities, the game tends to be scale in part through land grabbing. Less who got where first. To close the analogy, if AI does wind up commoditised, the layers at which that commodity is held are probably between power and compute [3]. So if AI commoditises (commodifies?), Google selling computer (and indirectly power) to Anthropic and OpenAI is the smarter play than trying to advantage Gemini. (If AI doesn't commoditise, the opposite may be true–Google is supercharging a competitor.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain_Petroleum_Company https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain_Petroleum_Company [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proclamation_of_the_Kingdom_of_Saudi_Arabia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proclamation_of_the_Kingdom_of... [3] The alternate hypothesis is it's at distribution.

dmix 5mo ago
Plus the whole thing of first mover advantage being a myth, especially in the tech industry
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > Plus the whole thing of first mover advantage being a myth, especially in the tech industry Source? That would be surprising!
  - dmix 5mo ago
    https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advantage https://hbr.org/2005/04/the-half-truth-of-first-mover-advant... https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5654eb6ee4b0e19716ec5a92/t/56be95b686db43b5489cb0bd/1455330748283/2005_HBR_The+Half+Truth+of+First+Mover+Advantage.pdf https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5654eb6ee4b0e19716ec5... Showing how old I am with that reference A more recent article https://www.productplan.com/learn/first-mover-advantage-fast-follower https://www.productplan.com/learn/first-mover-advantage-fast... I should say it’s “mostly” a myth, there are some fleeting competitive advantages to first mover but a lot of them don’t apply well to tech companies and there isn’t strong historical evidence supporting it.
  - 2df 5mo ago
    Why? Being a first mover only counts for something if it can yield exclusivity that is durable.. you should know this being a VC and all. Real options - hello? If you want to benefit massively off being a first mover, you better do the work in figuring it out how you are going to acquire exclusivity that lasts long enough that keeps most firms out.