Napkin Math by Sabine Hossenfelder: - people working in space top secret research 20,000 (conservative estimate, probably much smaller) - adult disappearances

Napkin Math by Sabine Hossenfelder: - people working in space top secret research 20,000 (conservative estimate, probably much smaller) - adult disappearances 1/50k to 1/100k per year - demographics are stable, high earners, so more like 1/100k per year or less - so for the pool of 20k, then 0.2 per year on average - these disappearances are a 1:10,000 to 1:20,000 probability - homicides made this situation even more unlikely 1:100,000 Conclusions: A conspiracy is highly unlikely, but the situation is very unlikely. Shrug. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEnvorobhEE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEnvorobhEE