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I think this war will be the moment that historians mark as the death of Pax Americana. The US failed to change the Iranian regime, failed to open the strait, a
by GeoPolAlt 5mo ago
I think this war will be the moment that historians mark as the death of Pax Americana. The US failed to change the Iranian regime, failed to open the strait, and now a previously international waterway will be tolled in a currency other than the dollar.
I wish it need not have happened in my time
- churchill 5mo ago[dead]
- pavlov 5mo agoTrump promised the most crypto-friendly US administration ever, but this is probably not what Republicans had in mind.
- cjs_ac 5mo agoThis war will be to the US what the Suez Crisis was to the United Kingdom. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Crisis
- puelocesar 5mo agoTIL about one more time Israel was invading it's neighbors..
- grumple 5mo agoYou should focus on the part where Egypt blockaded the Suez and Straits of Tiran, which is what actually caused the war.
- Pay08 5mo agoThat's far too hyperbolic. Abject failures don't lead to state or power collapse. Look at how many wars the Romans lost, and far more catastrophically too.
- aurmc 5mo agoFrom the article: "The crisis strengthened Nasser's standing and led to international humiliation for the British—with historians arguing that it signified the end of its role as a superpower—as well as the French amid the Cold War." It then has seven different citations after it.
- Pay08 5mo agoI was talking about the USA...
- 762236 5mo agoNo air war has changed a regime. The US government knows this. Trump knows this and never had regime change as an objective. Why are you saying that regime change was an objective, and how do you think it was going to happen in an air war when no air war has caused a regime change before?
- whateveracct 5mo agoTrump was talking about the protests there and that the US would help them. And we kept killing Iranian leadership lol. Why are you taking what the Trump admin says at face value, anyways? Are you still a fool after all these years? This is like "fool me a 10,000th time" by now haaha
- 762236 5mo agoWhat he says matches to reality: that regime change isn't possible with an air war. Thus even if you don't listen to him, we know from prior experience that regime change is highly improbable. Every person educated about these things knows that.
- whateveracct 5mo agoThe contemplated (and moved!) ground troops for weeks lol.
- 762236 5mo agoIf troops get deployed, it will no longer be an air war. Part of keeping it an air war is to achieve the original objectives, and getting Iran to think that troops are coming is a way to increase the probability of achieving those objectives. If you don't know how war, or game theory, works, why are you commenting on it?
- whateveracct 5mo agoi do understand, but the issue here is that the war was not sold or explained to us at home. which is equally important to a successful war.
- pokstad 5mo agoTBF, Iran is saying an exorbitant price right now, but in reality they will need to balance their price with demand to bring in the maximum possible revenue. The toll may work out in the long run.
- ivell 5mo agoI think the price can only increase. There is not much competition for Hormuz. If it is exorbitant now, it can only be more expensive later on. The demand for oil is not going to go down drastically for quite a few years. If there was another route, the oil would have found the way.
- thatguy0900 5mo agoIn time pipelines can be made, no? 2 million per ship already gives a lot of room for exorbitant infrastructure projects to break even in the medium term
- 1attice 5mo agoPipelines take years, even decades, at least here in Canada. You'd be surprised at how many billions of dollars and person-years of labour you need to get the thing turned on. Five years at 2mil per ship will make Iran rich.
- pas 5mo agopipelines, railway, etc. had the US had any real plan to empower the Gulf states against Iran there would already be backup routes
- Tostino 5mo agoPipelines are incredibly vulnerable to being taken offline by an inexpensive long-range strike. You can't just put them in the middle of a war zone, especially when we (the US) have targeted that same type of infrastructure first.
- keybored 5mo agoI think it’s weird that you imply that it is because the American regime failed to change the Iranian regime. They (lead by Israel or not) illegally invaded a country. It’s just Pax for those parts of the world that America and its allies are not invading (and other non-allied examples like Russia invading Ukraine). But a typical top-comment about how America Did a Bad Thing Which Ruined The Good American-lead Times.
- jMyles 5mo ago> It’s just Pax for those parts of the world that America and its allies are not invading Aren't you making the very point you purport to refute? What's so different about this than Rome circa 50 BC? They even invaded Persia!
- keybored 5mo agoI think the Very Point or Principle is garbage in general.
- Havoc 5mo agoI’d say there is a credible case for saying the vote for 2nd round of trump was the turning point. By that point is was already pretty well established that he isn’t fit yet that’s what the public wanted.
- snickerbockers 5mo agoThe democrats deserve a fair share of the blame for that just for their having created and maintained the two-party duopoly along with the Republicans. At the very least its not the voters fault if the only viable alternative to the Republicans is constantly rigging (or in this case straight-up bypassing) their own primaries to put corrupt party insiders at the forefront.
- saulpw 5mo agoSure, everyone deserves some share of the blame, but it's like 10% for the Ds and 90% Rs. We can't keep talking like it's 50/50, that's how people become completely disenchanted with politics and don't even bother to vote.
- wongarsu 5mo agoThe root cause is the first-past-the-post voting system that ensures a two-party system. But for the party with the most responsibility for blowing it all up I'd like to nominate Rupert Murdoch. Most visibly with Fox News, but really his entire media empire
- euroderf 5mo ago> The root cause is the first-past-the-post voting system that ensures a two-party system. Hear, hear. I'm rooting for the fast uptake of STV across the US.
- amavect 5mo agoYet another reminder that we need approval voting, or even STAR voting, for single-winner elections. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhO6jfHPFQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhO6jfHPFQU https://www.equal.vote/approval https://www.equal.vote/approval https://www.equal.vote/beyond_rcv_zine https://www.equal.vote/beyond_rcv_zine
- Incipient 5mo agoI can't believe that the toll will actually be paid - it would turn Iran into an INSANELY wealthy superpower and easily give them the funds to hugely increase their availability to fund groups like hezbollah etc.
- badc0ffee 5mo agoI read that it could add up to $80 billion/year, at most.
- Incipient 5mo agoAccording to Wikipedia their current budget is roughly 40bn usd, so it would triple their budget. This fascination with ignoring that everyone in this disaster is the 'bad guy' (yeah including the US) is very bizarre.
- dist-epoch 5mo agoYou forgot that now Iran will become a nuclear state. An American Iranian expert which studied this region for 20 years predicted that Iran will do a nuclear test in September, ahead of the mid-term elections. We'll see.
- Pay08 5mo agoFor all intents and purposes, they have been a nuclear state for 30 years.
- HDThoreaun 5mo agoThe toll is not going to happen. Iran has plenty of demands regarding the ceasefire and will get almost none of them.