5 ms·
At what point do these companies stop releasing models and just use them to bootstrap AGI for themselves?
by influx 5mo ago
At what point do these companies stop releasing models and just use them to bootstrap AGI for themselves?
- dweekly 5mo agoI mean, guess why Anthropic is pulling ahead...? One can have one's cake and eat it too.
- jcims 5mo agowhy_not_both.gif
- vatsachak 5mo agoWhen the benchmarks actually mean something
- sleigh-bells 5mo agoWeird how Claude Code itself is still so buggy though (though I get they don't necessarily care)
- tempest_ 5mo agoIt isnt that weird. Just look at the gemini-cli repo. Its a gong show. The issue is that LLMs can be wrong sometimes sure but more that all the existing SDL were never meant to iterate this quickly. If the system (code base in this case) is changing rapidly it increases the probability that any given change will interact poorly with any other given change. No single person in those code bases can have a working understanding of them because they change so quickly. Thus when someone LGTM the PR was the LLM generated they likely do not have a great understanding of the impact it is going to have.
- mofeien 5mo agoFictional timeline that holds up pretty well so far: https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2027.com/
- aurareturn 5mo agoWelp, that was a scary read.
- stavros 5mo ago"So far" is two entries: "AI companies build bigger datacenters" and "AI is being used for AI research with modest success".
- conradkay 5mo agoPlausibly now. "As we wrote in the Project Glasswing announcement, we do not plan to make Mythos Preview generally available"
- recursive 5mo agoI remember when they didn't plan to give LLMs internet access for the same safety reasons.
- ALittleLight 5mo agoNow, I guess. They aren't releasing this one generally. I assume they are using it internally.
- gaigalas 5mo agoIt will arrive in the same DLC as flying cars.
- orphea 5mo agoCan LLMs be AGI at all?
- bornfreddy 5mo agoGood question. I would guess no - but it could help you build one. Am I mistaken?
- nothinkjustai 5mo agoNo I think that’s accurate. They seem more like an oracle to me. Or as someone put it here, it’s a vectorization of (most/all?) human knowledge, which we can replay back in various permutations.
- bogzz 5mo agoThey could help you build an AGI if someone else has already built AGI and published it on GitHub.
- unshavedyak 5mo agoI see this statement all the time and it's just strange to me. Yes, the LLMs struggle to form unique ideas - but so do we. Most advancements in human history are incremental. Built on the shoulders of millions of other incremental advancements. What i don't understand is how we quantify our ability to actually create something novel, truly and uniquely novel. We're discussing the LLMs inability to do that, yet i don't feel i have a firm grasp on what we even possess there. When pressed i imagine many folks would immediately jest that they can create something never done before, some weird random behavior or noise or drawing or whatever. However many times it's just adjacent to existing norms, or constrained by the inversion of not matching existing norms. In a lot of cases our incremental novelties feel, to some degree, inevitable. As the foundations of advancement get closer to the new thing being developed it becomes obvious at times. I suspect this form of novelty is a thing LLMs are capable of. So for me the real question is at what point is innovation so far ahead that it doesn't feel like it was the natural next step. And of course, are LLMs capable of doing this? I suspect for humans this level of true innovation is effectively random. A genius being more likely to make these "random" connections because they have more data to connect with. But nonetheless random, as ideas of this nature often come without explanation if not built on the backs of prior art. So yea.. thoughts?
- MadnessASAP 5mo agoI would assume somewhere in both the companies there's a Ralph loop running with the prompt "Make AGI". Kinda makes me think of the Infinite Improbability Drive.
- margorczynski 5mo agoI think it is naive to think the government (US or China most probably) will just let some random company control something so powerful and dangerous.
- nullocator 5mo agoIsn't the U.S. government at least completely asleep at the wheel or captured by the very same "random" companies? I realize the administration got all pissy with Anthropic but it sounds like the gov and gov contractors are still using their models.
- margorczynski 5mo agoYeah but they still (at least to public knowledge) do not posses anything that could be called AGI. But as these capabilities increase they'll probably get an offer they can't refuse sooner or later.
- r0fl 5mo agoI think it is naive to think that artificial super intelligence will be controlled by anyone. If it is smarter than all humans combined at everything why would any humans collectively control the ai? All the ants in your backyard still make no decisions vs you
- aizk 5mo agoProbably right now because they're keeping it for themselves?
- HarHarVeryFunny 5mo agoRight now these models are basically good for automation, not innovation. Things like Karpathy's "auto research" where you use the model to automate your hyperparamter sweeps etc. The researcher/engineer decides what experiments they want to run, and builds an LLM harness to automate it, and the bottleneck remains the compute to run these experiments at scale. Moving beyond LLMs to AGI, not just better LLMs, is going to require architectural and algorithic changes. Maybe an LLM can help suggest directions, but even then it's up to a researcher to take those on board and design and automate experiments to see if any of the ideas pan out. Companies are already doing this, but they are never going to stop releasing/selling models since that is the product, and the revenue from each generation of model is what helps keep the ship afloat and pay for salaries and compute to develop the next generation. The endgame isn't "AGI, then world domination" - it's just trying to build a business around selling ever-better models, and praying that the revenue each generation of model generates can keep up with the cost to build it.
- m3kw9 5mo agoThey already do, but not the way you said, the always have an internal model that is better and use themselves, they release based on competition.