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I'm not sure I buy the "everyone will be AI coding to replace things that cost money with their own apps" idea. I only have so much limited time in my day (and

by qoez 6mo ago

I'm not sure I buy the "everyone will be AI coding to replace things that cost money with their own apps" idea. I only have so much limited time in my day (and only so many tokens on my claude account per week). It's probably going to make more sense for me to buy a tool that's been given human attention over the span of weeks over something i prompt into existence in a few hours (especially if I need 10 such tools to accomplish something).

piker 6mo ago
"The economics of opportunity cost are unchanged" a friend told me recently, and I think that's exactly what is driving your intuition here as well.
conductr 6mo ago
I can’t always see the personal appeal, however when I view through the lens of businesses that buy very expensive enterprise software and other SaaS products (maybe blending into consumer market), well I think they’re toast. I think the acceleration of AI tools recently isn’t going to be indicative of how long the full transformation will take, but a lot of companies will start preferring Build over Buy. I have no idea the scope, but this is already happening at some partial scale.
- qoez 6mo ago
  I agree the free money in like one month coded SaaS apps are in big trouble. But like there's no way I'm gonna have the vision to desire to play a game I made myself using AI for instance (just the fact that I prompted it into existence ruins some of the exploration of a game made by someone else). So at the low end of the extreme (easy to make SaaS apps with basic code and a db) AI is a thread, but at the other end of the extreme (requiring vision and where human attention is a bottleneck) there's definitely still tons of opportunity.
- FuckButtons 6mo ago
  I think a lot of people will do this, it remains to be seen how the actual economics of this shake out in the long run, especially considering, it’s not like the existing vendors are going to remain static.
aerodexis 6mo ago
The choice isn't between A) the expensive, proven tool and B) the thing I promoted in a few hours - it's b/w A, B and also C) the less expensive, somewhat proven tool that someone else prompted over a couple of days. I can see, over time, a slow drift towards "free". Factor in how a lot of tools have weaponized their interfaces against their users - then the motivation isn't just cost, but usability.
mycall 6mo ago
Everyone will need something customized to their lifestyle changes, like a digital factory kernel, to others wanting to trade workflow recipes. They then use to write their own AI clean-roomed edition (which of course is just glue to hosted tools you buy)

by qoez 6mo ago

piker 6mo ago

"The economics of opportunity cost are unchanged" a friend told me recently, and I think that's exactly what is driving your intuition here as well.

conductr 6mo ago

I can’t always see the personal appeal, however when I view through the lens of businesses that buy very expensive enterprise software and other SaaS products (maybe blending into consumer market), well I think they’re toast. I think the acceleration of AI tools recently isn’t going to be indicative of how long the full transformation will take, but a lot of companies will start preferring Build over Buy. I have no idea the scope, but this is already happening at some partial scale.

qoez 6mo ago
I agree the free money in like one month coded SaaS apps are in big trouble. But like there's no way I'm gonna have the vision to desire to play a game I made myself using AI for instance (just the fact that I prompted it into existence ruins some of the exploration of a game made by someone else). So at the low end of the extreme (easy to make SaaS apps with basic code and a db) AI is a thread, but at the other end of the extreme (requiring vision and where human attention is a bottleneck) there's definitely still tons of opportunity.
FuckButtons 6mo ago
I think a lot of people will do this, it remains to be seen how the actual economics of this shake out in the long run, especially considering, it’s not like the existing vendors are going to remain static.

aerodexis 6mo ago

The choice isn't between A) the expensive, proven tool and B) the thing I promoted in a few hours - it's b/w A, B and also C) the less expensive, somewhat proven tool that someone else prompted over a couple of days. I can see, over time, a slow drift towards "free". Factor in how a lot of tools have weaponized their interfaces against their users - then the motivation isn't just cost, but usability.

mycall 6mo ago

Everyone will need something customized to their lifestyle changes, like a digital factory kernel, to others wanting to trade workflow recipes. They then use to write their own AI clean-roomed edition (which of course is just glue to hosted tools you buy)