5 ms·

You're making the same argument I am. If Iran had a small increase in accuracy they could hit targets that'd disable a lot of Israel military and civilian infra

by dlisboa 6mo ago

You're making the same argument I am. If Iran had a small increase in accuracy they could hit targets that'd disable a lot of Israel military and civilian infrastructure. A lot of stuff is getting through. To counter that Israel has to achieve a perfect interception record. The balance is throughly on the side of offensive drone/missile warfare.

breppp 6mo ago
I don't think we are arguing the same thing. I am arguing that even without any air defense, Iran would have difficulty hitting its targets in Israel with ballistic missiles due to low accuracy. When adding interception rates they have a real problem in attacking strategic facilities, air bases is a good example, which would be much more important than desalination plants. You can then see that they shifted to completely attacking large cities, usually with cluster bomblets. The reason is when you are bombing a large area, aim is less of an issue, similar to WW2 carpet bombing Your post alludes to drones, these do not reach Israel (from Iran) at all and are all intercepted
- YeGoblynQueenne 6mo ago
  Shahed drones have a maximum range of 25000 km [bbc_1]. The distance from e.g. Isfahan to Tel-Aviv is ~1592 km [google]. Shaheds can reach Israrel from Iran. As to them all being intercepted, in the 12-day war that seemed to be the plan, i.e. force Israel to waste interceptors on cheap drones [bbc_2]. That seems to have changed in the current conflict. _______________ [bbc_1] With a maximum range of 2,500km it could fly from Tehran to Athens. [bbc_2] When Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of drones in 2024, the UK was reported to have used RAF fighter jets to shoot some down with missiles that are estimated to cost around £200,000 each. Both exceprts from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b3a272f0-3e10-4f95-9cd1-b34ab8ad033c https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b3a272f0-3e10-4f95-... [google] https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/Isfahan,+Isfahan+Province,+Iran//@31.658003,39.431095,2532919m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m9!4m8!1m5!1m1!1s0x3fbc35fe8c326799:0x7ab57816ef5837f5!2m2!1d51.6659656!2d32.6538966!1m0!3e3?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDMyMi4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/Isfahan,+Isfahan+Province,...
  - gnabgib 6mo ago
    You need an edit on your first range (typo). 25Mm is amazing, nowhere is too far away (except the moon).
    - YeGoblynQueenne 6mo ago
      Well spotted, my bad, too late now.
  - WalterBright 6mo ago
    During WW2, the British used Spitfires to shoot down V1s. The V1s, pushed by a simple pulse jet, I presume are much faster than the drones. So some WW2 aircraft could be re-armed and used to shoot them down cheaply. The British also employed a belt of radar-guided flak guns to shoot them down. I don't hear any comparisons with the V1s, so my idea must be stupid, but I'm not seeing the flaw in it.
    - jounker 6mo ago
      A v1 was 30 feet long with a 20 foot wing span, and had no evasive capabilities.
      - WalterBright 6mo ago
        Do the drones being launched by Iran have evasive capabilities?
        srean 6mo ago
        Unlikely but they can be intelligent about their trajectory. That is avoid known areas of resistance, use natural features for protection. Being slow moving as they are, they are quite vulnerable to countermeasures after they have been detected. I expected a-10s, helicopter gunships guarding critical infra, but have not heard of anything like that in the news.
        6mo ago

by dlisboa 6mo ago

breppp 6mo ago

I don't think we are arguing the same thing. I am arguing that even without any air defense, Iran would have difficulty hitting its targets in Israel with ballistic missiles due to low accuracy. When adding interception rates they have a real problem in attacking strategic facilities, air bases is a good example, which would be much more important than desalination plants. You can then see that they shifted to completely attacking large cities, usually with cluster bomblets. The reason is when you are bombing a large area, aim is less of an issue, similar to WW2 carpet bombing Your post alludes to drones, these do not reach Israel (from Iran) at all and are all intercepted

YeGoblynQueenne 6mo ago
Shahed drones have a maximum range of 25000 km [bbc_1]. The distance from e.g. Isfahan to Tel-Aviv is ~1592 km [google]. Shaheds can reach Israrel from Iran. As to them all being intercepted, in the 12-day war that seemed to be the plan, i.e. force Israel to waste interceptors on cheap drones [bbc_2]. That seems to have changed in the current conflict. _______________ [bbc_1] With a maximum range of 2,500km it could fly from Tehran to Athens. [bbc_2] When Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of drones in 2024, the UK was reported to have used RAF fighter jets to shoot some down with missiles that are estimated to cost around £200,000 each. Both exceprts from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b3a272f0-3e10-4f95-9cd1-b34ab8ad033c https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b3a272f0-3e10-4f95-... [google] https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/Isfahan,+Isfahan+Province,+Iran//@31.658003,39.431095,2532919m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m9!4m8!1m5!1m1!1s0x3fbc35fe8c326799:0x7ab57816ef5837f5!2m2!1d51.6659656!2d32.6538966!1m0!3e3?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDMyMi4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D https://www.google.co.uk/maps/dir/Isfahan,+Isfahan+Province,...
- gnabgib 6mo ago
  You need an edit on your first range (typo). 25Mm is amazing, nowhere is too far away (except the moon).
  - YeGoblynQueenne 6mo ago
    Well spotted, my bad, too late now.
- WalterBright 6mo ago
  During WW2, the British used Spitfires to shoot down V1s. The V1s, pushed by a simple pulse jet, I presume are much faster than the drones. So some WW2 aircraft could be re-armed and used to shoot them down cheaply. The British also employed a belt of radar-guided flak guns to shoot them down. I don't hear any comparisons with the V1s, so my idea must be stupid, but I'm not seeing the flaw in it.
  - jounker 6mo ago
    A v1 was 30 feet long with a 20 foot wing span, and had no evasive capabilities.
    - WalterBright 6mo ago
      Do the drones being launched by Iran have evasive capabilities?
      - srean 6mo ago
        Unlikely but they can be intelligent about their trajectory. That is avoid known areas of resistance, use natural features for protection. Being slow moving as they are, they are quite vulnerable to countermeasures after they have been detected. I expected a-10s, helicopter gunships guarding critical infra, but have not heard of anything like that in the news.
        6mo ago