6 ms·

I think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out imme

by derf_ 6mo ago

I think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.

general1465 6mo ago
Or even sooner if Iran intensifies striking of storages. The whole Gulf is starting to feel like a complete write off...
mattmaroon 6mo ago
2021 all over again except now we don’t even get a new president.
solstice 6mo ago
Is there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that: - storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full - mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crude How likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs? And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?
- toomuchtodo 6mo ago
  Restarting Fieldwide Shutdown for Middle East Oil and Gas Producers is Not Easy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 - March 2026 is a resource I found helpful.
OgsyedIE 6mo ago
There is one way that production could resume, of course: a public peace that is both real and accompanied by Iranian broadcast of orders to their coastal troops to stand down. Given the ongoing campaign to assassinate Iranian diplomats who may be willing to negotiate peace whilst leaving hardliners alive, the only question is what kind of inducements will be necessary to get them to agree?
- yyyk 6mo ago
  Everyone Iranian leader who is killed is post-facto named 'moderate', with very little proof of being moderate while alive.
  - PearlRiver 6mo ago
    Is this not the heart of the problem? Israel has been killing Iranians for years. Nobody can guarantee that Israel would not break a cease fire when they feel like it. I fear that both sides are acting completely rational: Israel wants to wipe out Iran and Iran is doing whatever they can to survive.
- cogman10 6mo ago
  I don't think anything short of the US completely cutting ties with Israel would make Iran consider backing down at this point. And even then, I expect they'll continue directly attacking Israel.
  - srean 6mo ago
    Such a change given Iran was one of the few Middle-Eastern countries to approve of the UN resolution calling for the formation of Israel.
    - cogman10 6mo ago
      Not exactly a recent change. Since the '79 revolution Iran has had a pretty hostile position against Israel and the US. A big part of that hostility was because the US and the UK overthrew their democracy to install a puppet dictator in '53.
      - srean 6mo ago
        Indeed. Having petroleum reserves is almost always a curse. Norway seems to be the only country to have escaped unmolested.

by derf_ 6mo ago

general1465 6mo ago

Or even sooner if Iran intensifies striking of storages. The whole Gulf is starting to feel like a complete write off...

mattmaroon 6mo ago

2021 all over again except now we don’t even get a new president.

solstice 6mo ago

Is there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that: - storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full - mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crude How likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs? And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?

toomuchtodo 6mo ago
Restarting Fieldwide Shutdown for Middle East Oil and Gas Producers is Not Easy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 - March 2026 is a resource I found helpful.

OgsyedIE 6mo ago

There is one way that production could resume, of course: a public peace that is both real and accompanied by Iranian broadcast of orders to their coastal troops to stand down. Given the ongoing campaign to assassinate Iranian diplomats who may be willing to negotiate peace whilst leaving hardliners alive, the only question is what kind of inducements will be necessary to get them to agree?

yyyk 6mo ago
Everyone Iranian leader who is killed is post-facto named 'moderate', with very little proof of being moderate while alive.
- PearlRiver 6mo ago
  Is this not the heart of the problem? Israel has been killing Iranians for years. Nobody can guarantee that Israel would not break a cease fire when they feel like it. I fear that both sides are acting completely rational: Israel wants to wipe out Iran and Iran is doing whatever they can to survive.
cogman10 6mo ago
I don't think anything short of the US completely cutting ties with Israel would make Iran consider backing down at this point. And even then, I expect they'll continue directly attacking Israel.
- srean 6mo ago
  Such a change given Iran was one of the few Middle-Eastern countries to approve of the UN resolution calling for the formation of Israel.
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    Not exactly a recent change. Since the '79 revolution Iran has had a pretty hostile position against Israel and the US. A big part of that hostility was because the US and the UK overthrew their democracy to install a puppet dictator in '53.
    - srean 6mo ago
      Indeed. Having petroleum reserves is almost always a curse. Norway seems to be the only country to have escaped unmolested.