6 ms·

Youre aware that the rest of the planet have stricter gun laws and the American problems are fairly unique? This is even after controlling for things that exac

Youre aware that the rest of the planet have stricter gun laws and the American problems are fairly unique? This is even after controlling for things that exacerbate crime like high economic inequality. For instance, Brazil [1] (a much poorer and more unequal country than the USA) has lower murder rate than a lot of cities now than the USA. The murder rate of Rio seems to be about on the level of Houston (17/100k), or about a third of Detroit (47). But Rio clearly has __a lot more crime__ than Houston. It's palpable when you're in either city. Even with the Favelas and heavily armed gangs, the murder rate is comparatively low because *normal people dont have guns at nearly the same rate*. And it shouldn't take a leap of faith to figure out that higher gun ownership leads to more deaths. Guns are the one tool we have intentionally made to cause death. 1. I'm aware that Brazil has a higher murder rate, but comparing cities is a better pick. The northeast of Brazil is in another league than anywhere in the USA in economic conditions; it's not comparable. The only city I can think of with USA levels of economic development would be Florianopolis (murder rate 7/100k) or maybe Balneario Camboriu, or some parts of Sao Paulo like Vila Olimpia.

mothballed 6mo ago
[flagged]
- Hikikomori 6mo ago
  A map over poor people would likely look the same.
  - mothballed 6mo ago
    Which shows how ridiculous it is to assign that as the cause, doesn't it? It's almost as if pointing to a lot of guns or black people in one spot doesn't show that's why murders are happening, only allows you to tie statistical correlation.
- VHRanger 6mo ago
  Ah, some egregious misuse of statistics! Murder is a byproduct of crime. Crime is, largely, downstream of economic conditions with some obvious caveats. New Hampshire has the 2nd lowest crime rate of the USA states. You could make the same argument for, say, Switzerland (high gun ownership but no crime/murder). But no one would be surprised if you had high gun ownership in Monaco. Similarly for the ethnic argument you're trying to make: Majority black neighbourhoods in the USA tend to be poor. They also tend to be near more affluent places. Unlike poor white neighbourhoods, which are on average more rural in the USA. Being poor, and being next to rich people, and being excluded from legal increases of becoming rich, will increase crime. This should be obvious. Brazil has famously Favelas right next to wealthy areas and has a persistent crime problem for example. --- In short, it's really incredible how far some Americans will go to deny the obvious truth: *gun prevalence increases deadly crime*. Sure, some cultural factors will increase crime/violence on the margin. But the reason y'all have a bunch of shootings is that you have a bunch of guns to do shootings with. That simple.
  - mothballed 6mo ago
    Ah it seems you finally understand the point. Blaming the skin pigment is as silly as blaming the gun. Murder rates in US have very little to do with gun law, and they have very little to do with skin color, even though they're heavily correlated to the latter and weakly correlated to the former.
    - VHRanger 6mo ago
      Of course within the USA the state levels laws will do little. There's free movement between states! Compare the USA to Canada, where you can't bring a gun easily. You'll see Canadian murder rates being very low. Even controlling for similar factors at the city or neighborhood level. Of course I'm blaming the gun: it's pretty hard to kill someone with other weapons. Stabbings are often survived, even.
      - mothballed 6mo ago
        If you just want to pick an American neighbor and make a crude comparison based on that, I could just as easily point out Mexico, which has stricter gun laws than the USA and Canada and fewer guns per capita than both USA and Canada. And yet a higher murder rate than both. And I cannot 'easily' (disputable, but lets accept on face these semantics for the purpose of controlled national border) take a gun to or from Mexico. I assert again it is not the gun laws even if you want to do a national level view. Even a national analysis of gun laws in the three major countries of North America do not yield the conclusion you assert. You are cherry picking to try and find causality while damning a comment where I merely pointed out a correlation between black people and murder rates. This is hypocrisy. When you started to look at underlying causes at crime, you were so very close to getting there, but for some reason disengaged from that and went back to our flawed basis that would suggest it's the black pigment or it's the guns causing it.

mothballed 6mo ago

[flagged]

Hikikomori 6mo ago
A map over poor people would likely look the same.
- mothballed 6mo ago
  Which shows how ridiculous it is to assign that as the cause, doesn't it? It's almost as if pointing to a lot of guns or black people in one spot doesn't show that's why murders are happening, only allows you to tie statistical correlation.
VHRanger 6mo ago
Ah, some egregious misuse of statistics! Murder is a byproduct of crime. Crime is, largely, downstream of economic conditions with some obvious caveats. New Hampshire has the 2nd lowest crime rate of the USA states. You could make the same argument for, say, Switzerland (high gun ownership but no crime/murder). But no one would be surprised if you had high gun ownership in Monaco. Similarly for the ethnic argument you're trying to make: Majority black neighbourhoods in the USA tend to be poor. They also tend to be near more affluent places. Unlike poor white neighbourhoods, which are on average more rural in the USA. Being poor, and being next to rich people, and being excluded from legal increases of becoming rich, will increase crime. This should be obvious. Brazil has famously Favelas right next to wealthy areas and has a persistent crime problem for example. --- In short, it's really incredible how far some Americans will go to deny the obvious truth: *gun prevalence increases deadly crime*. Sure, some cultural factors will increase crime/violence on the margin. But the reason y'all have a bunch of shootings is that you have a bunch of guns to do shootings with. That simple.
- mothballed 6mo ago
  Ah it seems you finally understand the point. Blaming the skin pigment is as silly as blaming the gun. Murder rates in US have very little to do with gun law, and they have very little to do with skin color, even though they're heavily correlated to the latter and weakly correlated to the former.
  - VHRanger 6mo ago
    Of course within the USA the state levels laws will do little. There's free movement between states! Compare the USA to Canada, where you can't bring a gun easily. You'll see Canadian murder rates being very low. Even controlling for similar factors at the city or neighborhood level. Of course I'm blaming the gun: it's pretty hard to kill someone with other weapons. Stabbings are often survived, even.
    - mothballed 6mo ago
      If you just want to pick an American neighbor and make a crude comparison based on that, I could just as easily point out Mexico, which has stricter gun laws than the USA and Canada and fewer guns per capita than both USA and Canada. And yet a higher murder rate than both. And I cannot 'easily' (disputable, but lets accept on face these semantics for the purpose of controlled national border) take a gun to or from Mexico. I assert again it is not the gun laws even if you want to do a national level view. Even a national analysis of gun laws in the three major countries of North America do not yield the conclusion you assert. You are cherry picking to try and find causality while damning a comment where I merely pointed out a correlation between black people and murder rates. This is hypocrisy. When you started to look at underlying causes at crime, you were so very close to getting there, but for some reason disengaged from that and went back to our flawed basis that would suggest it's the black pigment or it's the guns causing it.