> On the contrary it's suspicious if I happened to guess exactly right with much less data and so have the same conclusion after learning more. No it isn't? If

> On the contrary it's suspicious if I happened to guess exactly right with much less data and so have the same conclusion after learning more. No it isn't? If I guess what time it is and then look and see that it's around sunset, which is evidence towards my initial guess being right, it is not "suspicious". This is just a fundamentally broken model of evidence.