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There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as: - Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems invol
by pkaral 7mo ago
There are so many implicit premises in that short comment, such as:
- Incredibly smart people are always right when it comes to extremely complex systems involving both deterministic behavior and human psychology
- The people with the nuclear codes will be given their orders by (or themselves be) incredibly smart people
- Wargames work (they have a horrible track record)
- The best plans are based on a complete understanding of the starting conditions and the factors that influence the modelling (including the "unknown unknowns")
I could go on.
- twoodfin 7mo agoI’m not sure what you’re objecting to about my comment, except a bunch of “implicit premises” you read into it.
- sigwinch 6mo agoMy experience is that wargaming has a decent track record. In hindsight, Nimitz looks much more prepared than MacArthur, even if their early careers suggest the opposite.