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Then it won't work. The current iteration of Germany is fully based on having been bombed to get a fresh start. If you already have something, you won't change

Then it won't work. The current iteration of Germany is fully based on having been bombed to get a fresh start. If you already have something, you won't change it. If you have to re-build, you will implement improvements. No bombs, no reset, no joy.

davidw 7mo ago
I am less confident about my predictions for an uncertain future. There's all kinds of ways different things could go. I didn't say we needed to follow their example to the letter; it was just one counterexample to the "woe and ruin for 100 years" comment.
- Fischgericht 7mo ago
  Yes, but it is actually scientifically correct and proven on all sorts of layers. Biology, Maths, whatever. Not doomsdaying, just data analytics. Societies are not operating like a sinus curve like say summer/winter cycles. They are upside-down "U"s. After the peak comes decline, but after the decline there is NOT recovery/growth again before you have a reset. Germany was the huge winner of WW2 in the sense that after having had a high society they directly were allowed to get another such run. But as nobody wants to bomb us ) anymore, Germany is also in decline now waiting for a reset to come one day... Sadly the USA will also need a reset before things can begin getting better again. ) I was born in Germany and lived there for 40 years.
  - RGamma 7mo ago
    References to scientific proofs?
scottyah 7mo ago
Ok what about the Netherlands, Spain, Nordic countries?
- Fischgericht 7mo ago
  Very different countries. The Netherlands for example got their last reset by completely losing the Dutch empire. Also, some societies have flatter curves than others. That really maps 1:1 to your style and culture of living and where the priorities are. If your priorities are to be the best as fast as possible (Germany) you will have less time between resets. If your priorities are "let's chill and wait until the coconut falls from the tree into my hand", your society might be able to have a far longer time between resets. But in the end: It's an iterative process. Which means: There must be iterations.
  - davidw 7mo ago
    This sounds about as scientific as phrenology.
    - Fischgericht 7mo ago
      No, it's really simple: Programming, Math, AI, blabla - those are all abstractions of what we have seen in nature. Once you have understood that, you can just apply the rules learned backward, and they will typically match pretty well. I can buy fractal veggies in a supermarket. And also, it's just data. Just take some random samples. That even civilizations like the Mayas who have faaaar more time on the clock than say than the US had multiple full resets. Another random sample I've just pulled out of thin google air: San Francisco Fire of 1851. Everybody knew that wood burns. And that wooden buildings burn. And that wooden cities burn. Did anyone decide to tear down their house and re-build with a different material? No. This happened after everything had burned down to the ground. That was the reset needed. I think it is very clearly an iterative process. Have a look.
      - mrguyorama 7mo ago
        >And also, it's just data. Just take some random samples. You are not at all working with "data" or "samples". You are just making arguments and supporting them with examples. That's not science, that's philosophy or persuasive essay writing. You are generalizing those arguments in insane ways. Just like the worst philosophy. You are drawing conclusions from extremely weak claims that don't even map to reality in the first place. You can't say "Math works to describe the head of broccoli so I can just think hard enough and understand geopolitics". That's emphatically not science.
RGamma 7mo ago
It is not inevitable that you come back improved. It is not inevitable that you come back at all.
eternauta3k 7mo ago
Germany wasn't a fresh start. The de-nazification ended up being a bit of a joke and (AFAIK) the first governments were full of ex-Nazis.

davidw 7mo ago

I am less confident about my predictions for an uncertain future. There's all kinds of ways different things could go. I didn't say we needed to follow their example to the letter; it was just one counterexample to the "woe and ruin for 100 years" comment.

Fischgericht 7mo ago
Yes, but it is actually scientifically correct and proven on all sorts of layers. Biology, Maths, whatever. Not doomsdaying, just data analytics. Societies are not operating like a sinus curve like say summer/winter cycles. They are upside-down "U"s. After the peak comes decline, but after the decline there is NOT recovery/growth again before you have a reset. Germany was the huge winner of WW2 in the sense that after having had a high society they directly were allowed to get another such run. But as nobody wants to bomb us ) anymore, Germany is also in decline now waiting for a reset to come one day... Sadly the USA will also need a reset before things can begin getting better again. ) I was born in Germany and lived there for 40 years.
- RGamma 7mo ago
  References to scientific proofs?

scottyah 7mo ago

Ok what about the Netherlands, Spain, Nordic countries?

Fischgericht 7mo ago
Very different countries. The Netherlands for example got their last reset by completely losing the Dutch empire. Also, some societies have flatter curves than others. That really maps 1:1 to your style and culture of living and where the priorities are. If your priorities are to be the best as fast as possible (Germany) you will have less time between resets. If your priorities are "let's chill and wait until the coconut falls from the tree into my hand", your society might be able to have a far longer time between resets. But in the end: It's an iterative process. Which means: There must be iterations.
- davidw 7mo ago
  This sounds about as scientific as phrenology.
  - Fischgericht 7mo ago
    No, it's really simple: Programming, Math, AI, blabla - those are all abstractions of what we have seen in nature. Once you have understood that, you can just apply the rules learned backward, and they will typically match pretty well. I can buy fractal veggies in a supermarket. And also, it's just data. Just take some random samples. That even civilizations like the Mayas who have faaaar more time on the clock than say than the US had multiple full resets. Another random sample I've just pulled out of thin google air: San Francisco Fire of 1851. Everybody knew that wood burns. And that wooden buildings burn. And that wooden cities burn. Did anyone decide to tear down their house and re-build with a different material? No. This happened after everything had burned down to the ground. That was the reset needed. I think it is very clearly an iterative process. Have a look.
    - mrguyorama 7mo ago
      >And also, it's just data. Just take some random samples. You are not at all working with "data" or "samples". You are just making arguments and supporting them with examples. That's not science, that's philosophy or persuasive essay writing. You are generalizing those arguments in insane ways. Just like the worst philosophy. You are drawing conclusions from extremely weak claims that don't even map to reality in the first place. You can't say "Math works to describe the head of broccoli so I can just think hard enough and understand geopolitics". That's emphatically not science.

RGamma 7mo ago

It is not inevitable that you come back improved. It is not inevitable that you come back at all.

eternauta3k 7mo ago

Germany wasn't a fresh start. The de-nazification ended up being a bit of a joke and (AFAIK) the first governments were full of ex-Nazis.