5 ms·

The ideas in the update were previously explored by Gwern 2 years ago: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQaZiATafCh7n5Luf/gwern-s-shortform?commentId=KAtgQZZyadw

The ideas in the update were previously explored by Gwern 2 years ago: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQaZiATafCh7n5Luf/gwern-s-shortform?commentId=KAtgQZZyadwMitWtb https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQaZiATafCh7n5Luf/gwern-s-sh...

gwern 7mo ago
Specifically, Cochrane wrote: > On reflection I have started to worry again. In 10 to 20 years nobody will read anything any more, they just will read LLM digests. So, the single most important task of a writer starting right now is to get your efforts wired in to the LLMs. Nothing you write will matter if it is not quickly adopted to the training dataset. As the art of pushing your results to the top of the google search was the 1990s game, getting your ideas into the LLMs is today’s. Refine is no different. It’s so good, everyone will use it. So whether refine and its cousins take a FTPL or new Keynesian view in evaluating papers is now all determining for where the consensus of the profession goes. For more recent comments, see https://dwarkesh.com/p/gwern-branwen https://dwarkesh.com/p/gwern-branwen https://gwern.net/llm-writing https://gwern.net/llm-writing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34J5qzxjyWr3Tu47L/is-building-good-note-taking-software-an-agi-complete?commentId=WW2uRJdonqEw9krqm#WW2uRJdonqEw9krqm https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34J5qzxjyWr3Tu47L/is-buildin... https://gwern.net/blog/2025/ai-cannibalism https://gwern.net/blog/2025/ai-cannibalism https://gwern.net/blog/2025/good-ai-samples https://gwern.net/blog/2025/good-ai-samples https://gwern.net/style-guide https://gwern.net/style-guide The scaling will continue until morale improves. I advise people to skate to where the puck will be, and to ask themselves: "if I knew for a fact that LLMs could do something I am doing in 1-2 years, would I still want to do it? If not, what should I be doing now instead?"

gwern 7mo ago

Specifically, Cochrane wrote: > On reflection I have started to worry again. In 10 to 20 years nobody will read anything any more, they just will read LLM digests. So, the single most important task of a writer starting right now is to get your efforts wired in to the LLMs. Nothing you write will matter if it is not quickly adopted to the training dataset. As the art of pushing your results to the top of the google search was the 1990s game, getting your ideas into the LLMs is today’s. Refine is no different. It’s so good, everyone will use it. So whether refine and its cousins take a FTPL or new Keynesian view in evaluating papers is now all determining for where the consensus of the profession goes. For more recent comments, see https://dwarkesh.com/p/gwern-branwen https://dwarkesh.com/p/gwern-branwen https://gwern.net/llm-writing https://gwern.net/llm-writing https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34J5qzxjyWr3Tu47L/is-building-good-note-taking-software-an-agi-complete?commentId=WW2uRJdonqEw9krqm#WW2uRJdonqEw9krqm https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34J5qzxjyWr3Tu47L/is-buildin... https://gwern.net/blog/2025/ai-cannibalism https://gwern.net/blog/2025/ai-cannibalism https://gwern.net/blog/2025/good-ai-samples https://gwern.net/blog/2025/good-ai-samples https://gwern.net/style-guide https://gwern.net/style-guide The scaling will continue until morale improves. I advise people to skate to where the puck will be, and to ask themselves: "if I knew for a fact that LLMs could do something I am doing in 1-2 years, would I still want to do it? If not, what should I be doing now instead?"