4 ms·
Cost, debt, difficulty forming a moat, gap between what the product promises and what it can do, and the difficulty actually raising capital required. His styl
by zero_shift 7mo ago
Cost, debt, difficulty forming a moat, gap between what the product promises and what it can do, and the difficulty actually raising capital required.
His style is acerbic and (imo) excessive sometimes. But he's also one of a minority of journos actually looking at the numbers and adding them up. Which seems to be a rarity
- hiddencost 7mo agoDisagree. He's cherry picking an extremely limited subset of numbers, based on a weak understanding of the industry and a lack of access to a lot of private data, and taking advantage of vulnerable people.
- zero_shift 7mo agoI'm not sure how anyone can respond to that, without asking you to divulge that private data
- danlitt 7mo ago>taking advantage of vulnerable people What on earth do you mean by this? Who is getting taken advantage of?
- simianwords 7mo agocost is going down 20x, 30x over the years so he's wrong about this.
- zero_shift 7mo agoThose are very large reductions - can I ask you for a source? And why is the error bar so large?
- simianwords 7mo agohttps://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends https://epoch.ai/data-insights/llm-inference-price-trends > The rate of decline varies dramatically depending on the performance milestone, ranging from 9x to 900x per year
- orwin 7mo agoThat doesn't matter if the free models are as performant in 6 months. I will never personally pay for a model I can have for free. ChatGPT 5 used to be my preferred model as a DMing help tool, now deepseek and LeChat are the one I use, and are better at what OpenAI model use to be better at. And I think the models hit their limit for my usecase, I don't need better one. I never 'reprompt' anymore, and just roll/improvise with what I got.
- simianwords 7mo agoi find it interesting that in no case do you allow openapi to profit - if the costs go up then they can't make profits - if the costs go down then you won't pay for them
- orwin 7mo agoIt's hard to sell something I can have for free. The only way for openAI to get my subscription back would be my country making open-weight ai or deepseek illegal. It was worth the price tbh, but they can't compete with free.