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The most interesting finding isn't that hyperbolic growth appears in "emergent capabilities" papers - it's that actual capability metrics (MMLU, tokens/$) remai
by ubixar 7mo ago
The most interesting finding isn't that hyperbolic growth appears in "emergent capabilities" papers - it's that actual capability metrics (MMLU, tokens/$) remain stubbornly linear.
The singularity isn't in the machines. It's in human attention.
This is Kuhnian paradigm shift at digital speed. The papers aren't documenting new capabilities - they're documenting a community's gestalt switch. Once enough people believe the curve has bent,
funding, talent, and compute follow. The belief becomes self-fulfilling.
Linear capability growth is the reality. Hyperbolic attention growth is the story.
- FeepingCreature 7mo agoThough this is still compatible with exponential or at least superlinear capability growth if you model benchmarks as measuring a segment of the line, or a polynomial factor.