7 ms·

Only through the first two paragraphs but a little turned off by the "everybody else is wrong, we are right and it's this one specific thing" attitude when it t

by mwt 7mo ago

Only through the first two paragraphs but a little turned off by the "everybody else is wrong, we are right and it's this one specific thing" attitude when it the topic is understanding something as complex and opaque as the global economy

floatrock 7mo ago
The Yen Carry Trade isn't some big secret... it's caused enough turmoil that it hit the front pages of the WSJ a few times in last few years (Aug 2024 was a big one iirc) Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act: > When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.
svnt 7mo ago
Yeah that part is a bit red string but the analysis further down is more reasonable. I have no idea whether it is an opportunity or someone grabbed the domain and going for a pump-and-dump, either seems plausible.
- terminalbraid 7mo ago
  Except the part where they confuse "cryptography" for cryptocurrency. Assuming they knew the difference.
ToucanLoucan 7mo ago
Personally I think Microsoft's stock is crashing less about any of this (though it is a hell of a theory IMO) and more to do with the fact that: * They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process * The XBox brand is tanking * Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games
- wslh 7mo ago
  Love the last line, what Valve has done on Windows emulation is herculean, I don't know (it would be great to know) other businesses creating/investing in incredible and risky third-party compatible technologies to run their real business on top of it. I worked in what other calls "Adversarial Interoperability" [1] but the scale of Valve is on another level. [1] https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-years-of-work-on-adversarial-interoperability/ https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-year...
  - tomstockmail 7mo ago
    On the hand at one point the emulation layer becomes the target. Hopefully game developers will realise this and start using native Linux technologies before they are tied to a single companies abstraction layer. Again.
    - johnvanommen 7mo ago
      The XBox was named after a Microsoft API. Definitely one of the more clever ways to force developers to eat your dogfood.
      - georgeecollins 7mo ago
        When it was created DirectX was a really useful thing for game makers. It made it easier to write hardware accelerated applications that were also consumer friendly. Contemporary Windows is full of anti-patterns. MSFT just can't seem to resist sticking things into it that make it less pleasant to use in support of MSFT's ecosystem. It's no wonder Valve invests into trying to be independent of that.
    - foobiekr 7mo ago
      Wine is more stable as an API to target than any of the native Linux technologies.
- GorbachevyChase 7mo ago
Trasmatta 7mo ago
It reads exactly like a WallStreetBets "effort post" where someone has some pet theory that somehow explains the market in a way that nobody else understands, but is almost always either completely wrong, or a vast oversimplification
- 01100011 7mo ago
  Fintwit is full of this crap. Fortunately it also has a few smart people who put it into context. Financial doom porn sells well, but it's almost always wrong.
lijok 7mo ago
[flagged]
- collingreen 7mo ago
  Do you organize a sit in for your ideas at work? This is a wild comparison.
  - lijok 7mo ago
    [flagged]
everybodyknows 7mo ago
For a better-credentialed opinion on Japan, here's the former Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs: https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan

by mwt 7mo ago

floatrock 7mo ago

The Yen Carry Trade isn't some big secret... it's caused enough turmoil that it hit the front pages of the WSJ a few times in last few years (Aug 2024 was a big one iirc) Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act: > When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.

svnt 7mo ago

Yeah that part is a bit red string but the analysis further down is more reasonable. I have no idea whether it is an opportunity or someone grabbed the domain and going for a pump-and-dump, either seems plausible.

terminalbraid 7mo ago
Except the part where they confuse "cryptography" for cryptocurrency. Assuming they knew the difference.

ToucanLoucan 7mo ago

Personally I think Microsoft's stock is crashing less about any of this (though it is a hell of a theory IMO) and more to do with the fact that: * They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process * The XBox brand is tanking * Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games

wslh 7mo ago
Love the last line, what Valve has done on Windows emulation is herculean, I don't know (it would be great to know) other businesses creating/investing in incredible and risky third-party compatible technologies to run their real business on top of it. I worked in what other calls "Adversarial Interoperability" [1] but the scale of Valve is on another level. [1] https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-years-of-work-on-adversarial-interoperability/ https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-year...
- tomstockmail 7mo ago
  On the hand at one point the emulation layer becomes the target. Hopefully game developers will realise this and start using native Linux technologies before they are tied to a single companies abstraction layer. Again.
  - johnvanommen 7mo ago
    The XBox was named after a Microsoft API. Definitely one of the more clever ways to force developers to eat your dogfood.
    - georgeecollins 7mo ago
      When it was created DirectX was a really useful thing for game makers. It made it easier to write hardware accelerated applications that were also consumer friendly. Contemporary Windows is full of anti-patterns. MSFT just can't seem to resist sticking things into it that make it less pleasant to use in support of MSFT's ecosystem. It's no wonder Valve invests into trying to be independent of that.
  - foobiekr 7mo ago
    Wine is more stable as an API to target than any of the native Linux technologies.
GorbachevyChase 7mo ago

Trasmatta 7mo ago

It reads exactly like a WallStreetBets "effort post" where someone has some pet theory that somehow explains the market in a way that nobody else understands, but is almost always either completely wrong, or a vast oversimplification

01100011 7mo ago
Fintwit is full of this crap. Fortunately it also has a few smart people who put it into context. Financial doom porn sells well, but it's almost always wrong.

lijok 7mo ago

[flagged]

collingreen 7mo ago
Do you organize a sit in for your ideas at work? This is a wild comparison.
- lijok 7mo ago
  [flagged]

everybodyknows 7mo ago

For a better-credentialed opinion on Japan, here's the former Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs: https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan