6 ms·

As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?

by c-fe 8mo ago

deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
trickster_ 8mo ago
That's an excellent question. My fear is that it's going to be a little bit like putting a towel on a pool-bed on the Titanic...
- c-fe 8mo ago
  Exactly. I would prefer to remain invested as I dont want to time the market. But I would prefer if I could meaningfully reduce exposure to OpenAI and the consequences of their possible downfall.
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
helsinkiandrew 8mo ago
Not really that gives you much exposure: If OpenAI is worth $5B, 4% of MSFT market Cap is Open AI. ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) holding is 7.2% of its total but also has xAI, Anthropic and lots of other AI https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold OpenAI going bust might be a shock to shareprices of publicly traded companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, Softbank and the like EDIT: obviously if OpenAI is worth $500B, not 5
Yizahi 8mo ago
Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.
- fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
  You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.
  - piva00 8mo ago
    But that isn't the analogy, is it? Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.
    - fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
      Betting usually has a cost.
      - piva00 8mo ago
        A fixed one, not one that can suffer snowballing increase in case your bet is wrong.
        fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
        Not necessarily. Spread betting doesn't work like that for instance. And shorting a stock can be structured in a way that caps your losses as well. It's just a matter of cost vs potential gains.
fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
Prediction markets? https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
- c-fe 8mo ago
  Im not sure I like that market in particular, but probably polymarket is indeed the best one… assuming the market will resolve fairly
  - fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
    I've never used polymarket, I just wanted to mention prediction markets as an option in general. The particular bet I linked to is probably a bad idea though, because there is a causal link between OpenAI doing well and deciding to go public. So this is not the way to bet on it crashing and burning.

As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?

by c-fe 8mo ago

As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

trickster_ 8mo ago

That's an excellent question. My fear is that it's going to be a little bit like putting a towel on a pool-bed on the Titanic...

c-fe 8mo ago
Exactly. I would prefer to remain invested as I dont want to time the market. But I would prefer if I could meaningfully reduce exposure to OpenAI and the consequences of their possible downfall.

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

helsinkiandrew 8mo ago

Not really that gives you much exposure: If OpenAI is worth $5B, 4% of MSFT market Cap is Open AI. ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) holding is 7.2% of its total but also has xAI, Anthropic and lots of other AI https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold OpenAI going bust might be a shock to shareprices of publicly traded companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, Softbank and the like EDIT: obviously if OpenAI is worth $500B, not 5

Yizahi 8mo ago

Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.

fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
You don't need to stand in front of a train to bet on a trainwreck.
- piva00 8mo ago
  But that isn't the analogy, is it? Betting on the trainwreck is quite easy, you got nothing to lose in the analogy, while shorting companies will cost you something, most times a lot if the bet has the wrong timing.
  - fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
    Betting usually has a cost.
    - piva00 8mo ago
      A fixed one, not one that can suffer snowballing increase in case your bet is wrong.
      - fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
        Not necessarily. Spread betting doesn't work like that for instance. And shorting a stock can be structured in a way that caps your losses as well. It's just a matter of cost vs potential gains.

fauigerzigerk 8mo ago

Prediction markets? https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap

c-fe 8mo ago
Im not sure I like that market in particular, but probably polymarket is indeed the best one… assuming the market will resolve fairly
- fauigerzigerk 8mo ago
  I've never used polymarket, I just wanted to mention prediction markets as an option in general. The particular bet I linked to is probably a bad idea though, because there is a causal link between OpenAI doing well and deciding to go public. So this is not the way to bet on it crashing and burning.