5 ms·

Kinda envious of them that, due to sanctions, they end up with hyperscalers. Europe will never get hyperscales while being too tight with the US, and any protec

by jimbohn 8mo ago

Kinda envious of them that, due to sanctions, they end up with hyperscalers. Europe will never get hyperscales while being too tight with the US, and any protectionism at the service industry level would make the US go more mental than it already is.

gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
A subtle reason for preferring negotiations towards mutually beneficial ends-- sanctions can supercharge tech adoption
- jimbohn 8mo ago
  Yeah, or even just protectionism. Most economists I've heard say that protectionism doesn't work, but I feel like China being quiet and protectionist in the infancy of its key industries was like the move of the century for them.
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
  - gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
    Protectionism and sanctions form a kind of virtuous feedback loop :) https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-technological-resilience/ https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-te... >The Iranian Information Technology Organization (ITOI) even set precise rules to evaluate candidates based on three different standards: ISO 27017 (cloud security controls), ISO 27018 (protection of personally identifiable information), and NIST SP 900-145, which concerns the American definition of cloud computing. “They want a comprehensive offer with its three components— IaaS, SaaS, and PaaS https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-technological-resilience/#:~:text=The%20Iranian%20Information,SaaS%2C%20and%20PaaS%2C https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-te...
  - baxtr 8mo ago
    Not sure tbh. China could have been like Japan per capita. Protectionism puts a big cap on economic growth potential.
    - deleted 8mo ago
      [deleted]
    - gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
      I might have missed something here "current dollar valuations are more appropriate. Nominal GDP measured in these units are plotted in Figure 2." https://econbrowser.com/archives/2009/06/how_important_i_2#:~:text=current%20dollar%20valuations%20are%20more%20appropriate.%20Nominal%20GDP%20measured%20in%20these%20units%20are%20plotted%20in%20Figure%202. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2009/06/how_important_i_2#:... (What do those bumps correspond to?)
      - baxtr 8mo ago
        Yes you have missed something. I wrote per capita.
        gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
        That's tough. I did miss that. Cross my heart and hope 1 child policy will payoff as well as WWII
    - bjourne 8mo ago
      Take a look at a plot of China's gdp per year since 1980. A curve can only get so exponential.
      - baxtr 8mo ago
        Japan was leveled to the ground by 1945. What’s the excuse for not having the same GDP per capita 80 years later? The curve became exponential way too late. And only after they (partially) opened up.
  - energy123 8mo ago
    Neoclassical economics is quite clear that targeted protectionism is desirable under certain exceptions. As for China, they would be more wealthy without the meddling of their government. There's no reason they couldn't be like Taiwan, but bigger. The Chinese people got to where they are in spite of their anchor.
    - pydry 8mo ago
      I remember half of the neoclassical economics focused articles about China from the late 90s and early 00s predicting that by not following ricardian comparative advantage China was shooting itself in the foot. They kept predicting collapse, too. Nobody talks much about the ricardian theory of static comparative advantage today. China's rise kind of invalidated it. America was taken by surprise by its rise because of this. The cordial relations and trade flipped almost overnight to hostility once it was realized that China's economic power now rivaled that of that of the US and was poised to grow even more.
      - energy123 8mo ago
        How do you know those economists were wrong? It's easy to conflate China's size with China's success. They liberalized their economy a great deal since the 1980s, which is responsible for the success they have had. That doesn't mean they couldn't be even more successful with further liberalization. Like a larger Taiwan.
    - imtringued 8mo ago
      Not really. In neoclassical economics protectionism is only justified as a necessary evil and it is always a form of militarism (spending money to weaken or defend against your enemy), rather than building yourself up.
    - somenameforme 8mo ago
      Median wage in Taiwan is something like $14k, less than many urban areas in China, though obviously higher than the very rural areas in China. [1] It's a Reddit link, but it's using first party government data. I'm linking to it since just linking to a site in Chinese would not be very informative for most. Huge GDP/capita in certain places is because of outsized industries that don't really translate to the average person. Ireland is another example where it's nearly twice as 'rich' as the US by that same metric, but it's just a nuance of it being an international hub for tax avoidance, not because the Irish are doing especially well. [1] - https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/1jmhhk1/realistic_salary_of_the_average_taiwanese_with/ https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/1jmhhk1/realistic_s...
alephnerd 8mo ago
It's not only because of sanctions. It's primarily because their leadership have deeply technical backgrounds. Most of my peers who ended up in policymaking roles in Europe (and in some cases the levers of power) all had a humanities or legal background and never worked in or adjacent to the tech industry. Assuming Iran didn't follow the path that it did, Iran would have also ended up becoming a tech hub like Israel became today. But this recognition should not be used to glaze a regime that has officially admitted to killing at least 5,000 protestors [0] in just 2 weeks and in reality killed significantly more people than that. Being adept at understanding the applications of technology doesn't make one a humanist. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/iranian-official-says-verified-deaths-iran-protests-reaches-least-5000-2026-01-18/ https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/iranian-offic...
- jimbohn 8mo ago
  Agree with you on pretty much everything you have said. The background of policymakers in Europe really annoys me. Just to be clear, I wasn't glazing Iran or anything.
  - larodi 8mo ago
    The background of most everyone in Brussels seems so wrong for the technological realities nowadays. I believe this sentiment is shared by a lot of people, and now it unfolds in Europe plainly lacking behind in technology. Which is such a shame given history of discoveries and advancement that was going on on the continent for centuries.
    - jimbohn 8mo ago
      The whole European political elite and ruling class feels like a quasi-aristocracy (something the US is slowly moving into as well, with political dynasties and such) that is used to go to some big-name art/humanities place and then slide into the bureaucracy ladder. Totally detached people, and it's a pity because we really need Europe to be better.

by jimbohn 8mo ago

gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago

A subtle reason for preferring negotiations towards mutually beneficial ends-- sanctions can supercharge tech adoption

jimbohn 8mo ago
Yeah, or even just protectionism. Most economists I've heard say that protectionism doesn't work, but I feel like China being quiet and protectionist in the infancy of its key industries was like the move of the century for them.
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
  Protectionism and sanctions form a kind of virtuous feedback loop :) https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-technological-resilience/ https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-te... >The Iranian Information Technology Organization (ITOI) even set precise rules to evaluate candidates based on three different standards: ISO 27017 (cloud security controls), ISO 27018 (protection of personally identifiable information), and NIST SP 900-145, which concerns the American definition of cloud computing. “They want a comprehensive offer with its three components— IaaS, SaaS, and PaaS https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-technological-resilience/#:~:text=The%20Iranian%20Information,SaaS%2C%20and%20PaaS%2C https://incyber.org/en/article/iran-between-isolation-and-te...
- baxtr 8mo ago
  Not sure tbh. China could have been like Japan per capita. Protectionism puts a big cap on economic growth potential.
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
  - gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
    I might have missed something here "current dollar valuations are more appropriate. Nominal GDP measured in these units are plotted in Figure 2." https://econbrowser.com/archives/2009/06/how_important_i_2#:~:text=current%20dollar%20valuations%20are%20more%20appropriate.%20Nominal%20GDP%20measured%20in%20these%20units%20are%20plotted%20in%20Figure%202. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2009/06/how_important_i_2#:... (What do those bumps correspond to?)
    - baxtr 8mo ago
      Yes you have missed something. I wrote per capita.
      - gsf_emergency_6 8mo ago
        That's tough. I did miss that. Cross my heart and hope 1 child policy will payoff as well as WWII
  - bjourne 8mo ago
    Take a look at a plot of China's gdp per year since 1980. A curve can only get so exponential.
    - baxtr 8mo ago
      Japan was leveled to the ground by 1945. What’s the excuse for not having the same GDP per capita 80 years later? The curve became exponential way too late. And only after they (partially) opened up.
- energy123 8mo ago
  Neoclassical economics is quite clear that targeted protectionism is desirable under certain exceptions. As for China, they would be more wealthy without the meddling of their government. There's no reason they couldn't be like Taiwan, but bigger. The Chinese people got to where they are in spite of their anchor.
  - pydry 8mo ago
    I remember half of the neoclassical economics focused articles about China from the late 90s and early 00s predicting that by not following ricardian comparative advantage China was shooting itself in the foot. They kept predicting collapse, too. Nobody talks much about the ricardian theory of static comparative advantage today. China's rise kind of invalidated it. America was taken by surprise by its rise because of this. The cordial relations and trade flipped almost overnight to hostility once it was realized that China's economic power now rivaled that of that of the US and was poised to grow even more.
    - energy123 8mo ago
      How do you know those economists were wrong? It's easy to conflate China's size with China's success. They liberalized their economy a great deal since the 1980s, which is responsible for the success they have had. That doesn't mean they couldn't be even more successful with further liberalization. Like a larger Taiwan.
  - imtringued 8mo ago
    Not really. In neoclassical economics protectionism is only justified as a necessary evil and it is always a form of militarism (spending money to weaken or defend against your enemy), rather than building yourself up.
  - somenameforme 8mo ago
    Median wage in Taiwan is something like $14k, less than many urban areas in China, though obviously higher than the very rural areas in China. [1] It's a Reddit link, but it's using first party government data. I'm linking to it since just linking to a site in Chinese would not be very informative for most. Huge GDP/capita in certain places is because of outsized industries that don't really translate to the average person. Ireland is another example where it's nearly twice as 'rich' as the US by that same metric, but it's just a nuance of it being an international hub for tax avoidance, not because the Irish are doing especially well. [1] - https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/1jmhhk1/realistic_salary_of_the_average_taiwanese_with/ https://www.reddit.com/r/taiwan/comments/1jmhhk1/realistic_s...

alephnerd 8mo ago

It's not only because of sanctions. It's primarily because their leadership have deeply technical backgrounds. Most of my peers who ended up in policymaking roles in Europe (and in some cases the levers of power) all had a humanities or legal background and never worked in or adjacent to the tech industry. Assuming Iran didn't follow the path that it did, Iran would have also ended up becoming a tech hub like Israel became today. But this recognition should not be used to glaze a regime that has officially admitted to killing at least 5,000 protestors [0] in just 2 weeks and in reality killed significantly more people than that. Being adept at understanding the applications of technology doesn't make one a humanist. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/iranian-official-says-verified-deaths-iran-protests-reaches-least-5000-2026-01-18/ https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/iranian-offic...

jimbohn 8mo ago
Agree with you on pretty much everything you have said. The background of policymakers in Europe really annoys me. Just to be clear, I wasn't glazing Iran or anything.
- larodi 8mo ago
  The background of most everyone in Brussels seems so wrong for the technological realities nowadays. I believe this sentiment is shared by a lot of people, and now it unfolds in Europe plainly lacking behind in technology. Which is such a shame given history of discoveries and advancement that was going on on the continent for centuries.
  - jimbohn 8mo ago
    The whole European political elite and ruling class feels like a quasi-aristocracy (something the US is slowly moving into as well, with political dynasties and such) that is used to go to some big-name art/humanities place and then slide into the bureaucracy ladder. Totally detached people, and it's a pity because we really need Europe to be better.