9 ms·

Despite all the talk about military action, the fact is that Europe is one of the main trading partners of the US and holds a substantial share of US debt. Any

Despite all the talk about military action, the fact is that Europe is one of the main trading partners of the US and holds a substantial share of US debt. Any invasion would be economic suicide, and I think even Trump realizes this.

thatguy0900 8mo ago
I'm not convinced trump cares about economic suicide at all
- malfist 8mo ago
  Trump barely thinks about first order effects, much less second order. He probably doesn't know it's economic suicide. And when it happens he'll tell us both "nobody knows more than me" and "nobody knew global commerce was this complicated" and then he'll tell us he'll have a plan to fix it in two weeks
drysine 8mo ago
>holds a substantial share of US deb That's the EU's problem, not Trump's)
- alibarber 8mo ago
  A mass selloff of US bonds will mean that the US can’t sell any more - because the market is suddenly flooded with bonds at a ‘discount’. This means that the US can’t take on any more debt (borrow money) Why would you pay the US $10 when you can get the same thing from France for $8? Or the US then has to issue bonds with massively inflated returns - i.e. pay a much higher interest rate.
  - drysine 8mo ago
    >This means that the US can’t take on any more debt (borrow money) They can literally print them
  - kyboren 8mo ago
    This idea of waging financial war on the US seems very en vogue in Europe right now, but I think it's terribly shortsighted. Here's how I think it would go down: 1. EU countries coordinate a mass selloff of US debt, somehow even coercing private holders into a fire sale. 2. US bond prices consequently fall. EU holders lose tons of money on the sell side. US and Asian buyers rush to buy and get a sweetheart deal and massive risk-free returns, which starts crashing the stock market. 3. The Fed intervenes. They conjure up dollars from nothing and buy the bonds EU holders are selling at some discount, maybe 95 cents on the dollar. Those new dollars go into those countries' and banks' Master accounts at the Fed. 4a. EU countries' and banks' Master accounts are frozen. Maybe some portion of the funds are released every week in order to allow an orderly flow of value without too much market distortion. Or maybe given the act of financial war, those funds remain frozen indefinitely. 4b. Alternatively, their Master accounts are not frozen. Now, presumably EU didn't sell all their bonds just to hold non-yielding dollars. So they'll go to the forex markets and buy up Euros, massively strengthening the Euro and fucking up their export-based economies. Maybe they buy gold, or EU sovereign debt, or ECB steps in with mad QE. EU bond yields crater. EU holders lose more money on the buy side as whatever assets they purchase get more expensive. Inflation ensues. 5. US is furious and retaliates with financial warfare of their own. Or perhaps kinetic warfare. The ringleaders of the fire sale end up blindfolded and earmuffed on a US warship. 6. EU is in a much worse position than before, lost a ton of money on each leg, likely had tons more frozen, has pernicious inflation and/or diminished exports, cut off from the dollar system making currency reserve management and forex difficult and costly. The US is also now furious and looking to impose additional costs on EU however and wherever it can.
    - dybber 8mo ago
      EU has a much better tool ready, the anti coercion instrument. Party leaders in EU have been talking over the weekend about deploying it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Coercion_Instrument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Coercion_Instrument
  - TurdF3rguson 8mo ago
    On the other hand, China sold off most of theirs and nobody even noticed. I think you're exaggerating both how much EU holds and the potential effects of them selling it.
    - someNameIG 8mo ago
      Deutsche Bank made a statement recently that Europe holds about double what the rest of the world does combined in US bonds and equity.
      - TurdF3rguson 8mo ago
        Sure but we were talking about just debt. Also the "rest of the world" is basically just China. I don't think it's a shocker that China isn't interested in betting on US companies.
        rsynnott 8mo ago
        Nah, China only holds about 600bn these days. Besides European sovereign holdings, most of the rest would be non-sovereign.
        TurdF3rguson 8mo ago
        Yup, that's my point. They sold off lots of debt and nobody noticed so EU doing the same won't matter.
        drysine 8mo ago
        >and nobody noticed You didn't notice. Look at the interest rate chart[1] [1] https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interest-rates/ https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interes...
      - youngtaff 8mo ago
        Europe holds $8 trillion out of 38 trillion… they can move the market
- bojan 8mo ago
  No, that's the member states' problem, not of the EU. The debt is not shared.
- rsynnott 8mo ago
  There's an aspect of mutually assured destruction; Europe could crash the dollar, but at _huge_ cost.
throw0101c 8mo ago
> Any invasion would be economic suicide, and I think even Trump realizes this. Your mistaking is in using rationality and logic.
rchaud 8mo ago
You're talking about someone who effused about the healing effects of ivermectin at a time when half a million of his countrymen had died of Covid.

thatguy0900 8mo ago

I'm not convinced trump cares about economic suicide at all

malfist 8mo ago
Trump barely thinks about first order effects, much less second order. He probably doesn't know it's economic suicide. And when it happens he'll tell us both "nobody knows more than me" and "nobody knew global commerce was this complicated" and then he'll tell us he'll have a plan to fix it in two weeks

drysine 8mo ago

>holds a substantial share of US deb That's the EU's problem, not Trump's)

alibarber 8mo ago
A mass selloff of US bonds will mean that the US can’t sell any more - because the market is suddenly flooded with bonds at a ‘discount’. This means that the US can’t take on any more debt (borrow money) Why would you pay the US $10 when you can get the same thing from France for $8? Or the US then has to issue bonds with massively inflated returns - i.e. pay a much higher interest rate.
- drysine 8mo ago
  >This means that the US can’t take on any more debt (borrow money) They can literally print them
- kyboren 8mo ago
  This idea of waging financial war on the US seems very en vogue in Europe right now, but I think it's terribly shortsighted. Here's how I think it would go down: 1. EU countries coordinate a mass selloff of US debt, somehow even coercing private holders into a fire sale. 2. US bond prices consequently fall. EU holders lose tons of money on the sell side. US and Asian buyers rush to buy and get a sweetheart deal and massive risk-free returns, which starts crashing the stock market. 3. The Fed intervenes. They conjure up dollars from nothing and buy the bonds EU holders are selling at some discount, maybe 95 cents on the dollar. Those new dollars go into those countries' and banks' Master accounts at the Fed. 4a. EU countries' and banks' Master accounts are frozen. Maybe some portion of the funds are released every week in order to allow an orderly flow of value without too much market distortion. Or maybe given the act of financial war, those funds remain frozen indefinitely. 4b. Alternatively, their Master accounts are not frozen. Now, presumably EU didn't sell all their bonds just to hold non-yielding dollars. So they'll go to the forex markets and buy up Euros, massively strengthening the Euro and fucking up their export-based economies. Maybe they buy gold, or EU sovereign debt, or ECB steps in with mad QE. EU bond yields crater. EU holders lose more money on the buy side as whatever assets they purchase get more expensive. Inflation ensues. 5. US is furious and retaliates with financial warfare of their own. Or perhaps kinetic warfare. The ringleaders of the fire sale end up blindfolded and earmuffed on a US warship. 6. EU is in a much worse position than before, lost a ton of money on each leg, likely had tons more frozen, has pernicious inflation and/or diminished exports, cut off from the dollar system making currency reserve management and forex difficult and costly. The US is also now furious and looking to impose additional costs on EU however and wherever it can.
  - dybber 8mo ago
    EU has a much better tool ready, the anti coercion instrument. Party leaders in EU have been talking over the weekend about deploying it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Coercion_Instrument https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Coercion_Instrument
- TurdF3rguson 8mo ago
  On the other hand, China sold off most of theirs and nobody even noticed. I think you're exaggerating both how much EU holds and the potential effects of them selling it.
  - someNameIG 8mo ago
    Deutsche Bank made a statement recently that Europe holds about double what the rest of the world does combined in US bonds and equity.
    - TurdF3rguson 8mo ago
      Sure but we were talking about just debt. Also the "rest of the world" is basically just China. I don't think it's a shocker that China isn't interested in betting on US companies.
      - rsynnott 8mo ago
        Nah, China only holds about 600bn these days. Besides European sovereign holdings, most of the rest would be non-sovereign.
        TurdF3rguson 8mo ago
        Yup, that's my point. They sold off lots of debt and nobody noticed so EU doing the same won't matter.
        drysine 8mo ago
        >and nobody noticed You didn't notice. Look at the interest rate chart[1] [1] https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interest-rates/ https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interes...
    - youngtaff 8mo ago
      Europe holds $8 trillion out of 38 trillion… they can move the market
bojan 8mo ago
No, that's the member states' problem, not of the EU. The debt is not shared.
rsynnott 8mo ago
There's an aspect of mutually assured destruction; Europe could crash the dollar, but at _huge_ cost.

throw0101c 8mo ago

> Any invasion would be economic suicide, and I think even Trump realizes this. Your mistaking is in using rationality and logic.

rchaud 8mo ago

You're talking about someone who effused about the healing effects of ivermectin at a time when half a million of his countrymen had died of Covid.