7 ms·

The next two years of software engineering will be the last two years of software engineering (probably).

kubb 8mo ago
Please don’t get my hopes up. Adaptable people like me will outcompete hard in the post-engineering world. Alas, I don’t believe it’s coming. The tech just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to do the job.
- falloutx 8mo ago
  Some related fields will be gone too. And the jobs which will remain will be impossible to get.
  - deleted 8mo ago
    [deleted]
  - menaerus 8mo ago
    > And the jobs which will remain will be impossible to get. Exactly my thoughts lately ... Even by yesterday's standards it was already very difficult to land a job and, by tomorrow's standards, it appears as if only the very best of the best will be able to keep their jobs and the ones in a position of decision making power.
amelius 8mo ago
I don't see the market flooded yet with software that was "so easy to build using LLMs". Last year was, as it seems, just a normal year in terms of global software output.
- steve1977 8mo ago
  If anything, looking at for example what Microsoft has been releasing, it's been a year below average (in terms of quality).
- falloutx 8mo ago
  You are not looking at right places. Github repo counts have been high since 2020 because there are companies & individuals who run fork scripts. So AI cant match the numbers. But on product hunt, the amount of projects is First week of Jan: 5000+, Entire Jan 2018: 4000 approx.
  - amrocha 8mo ago
    That doesn’t mean industry output is high, it means people are starting new products. Has the output of existing companies/products increased substantially? Have more products proven successful and started companies? hard to say but maybe a little
    - falloutx 8mo ago
      >Has the output of existing companies/products increased substantially? Would be impossible to tell.
      - amrocha 8mo ago
        No, it would be pretty easy if it looked like new features were shipping significantly faster. But they’re not.
- cmpxchg8b 8mo ago
  This is such a stupid argument. A very significant amount of code never makes it into the public sphere. None of the code I've written professionally in the last 26 years is publicly accessible, and if someone uses a product I've written they likely don't care if it was written with the aid of an LLM or not. Not to mention agent capabilities at the end of last year were vastly different to those at the start of the year.
  - amelius 8mo ago
    Even if a portion of software is not released to the general public, you'd still expect an increase in the amount of software released to the general public. Even if LLMs became better during the year, you'd still expect an increase in releases.
    - cmpxchg8b 8mo ago
      Maybe, but these days a vast amount of software is hidden behind online services. I'm not sure you'd see the hidden iceberg.
- theshrike79 8mo ago
  The software being written isn't coming to "the market". It's all internal development. Look at smaller SaaS offerings and people selling tiny utility apps, those will go away slowly. Why would I pay for something when I can make it for my own (or company internal) use in an afternoon?
izacus 8mo ago
What are you willing to bet on that prediction? Your car? Your home? Talk is cheap, let's see the money :D

kubb 8mo ago

Please don’t get my hopes up. Adaptable people like me will outcompete hard in the post-engineering world. Alas, I don’t believe it’s coming. The tech just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to do the job.

falloutx 8mo ago
Some related fields will be gone too. And the jobs which will remain will be impossible to get.
- deleted 8mo ago
  [deleted]
- menaerus 8mo ago
  > And the jobs which will remain will be impossible to get. Exactly my thoughts lately ... Even by yesterday's standards it was already very difficult to land a job and, by tomorrow's standards, it appears as if only the very best of the best will be able to keep their jobs and the ones in a position of decision making power.

amelius 8mo ago

I don't see the market flooded yet with software that was "so easy to build using LLMs". Last year was, as it seems, just a normal year in terms of global software output.

steve1977 8mo ago
If anything, looking at for example what Microsoft has been releasing, it's been a year below average (in terms of quality).
falloutx 8mo ago
You are not looking at right places. Github repo counts have been high since 2020 because there are companies & individuals who run fork scripts. So AI cant match the numbers. But on product hunt, the amount of projects is First week of Jan: 5000+, Entire Jan 2018: 4000 approx.
- amrocha 8mo ago
  That doesn’t mean industry output is high, it means people are starting new products. Has the output of existing companies/products increased substantially? Have more products proven successful and started companies? hard to say but maybe a little
  - falloutx 8mo ago
    >Has the output of existing companies/products increased substantially? Would be impossible to tell.
    - amrocha 8mo ago
      No, it would be pretty easy if it looked like new features were shipping significantly faster. But they’re not.
cmpxchg8b 8mo ago
This is such a stupid argument. A very significant amount of code never makes it into the public sphere. None of the code I've written professionally in the last 26 years is publicly accessible, and if someone uses a product I've written they likely don't care if it was written with the aid of an LLM or not. Not to mention agent capabilities at the end of last year were vastly different to those at the start of the year.
- amelius 8mo ago
  Even if a portion of software is not released to the general public, you'd still expect an increase in the amount of software released to the general public. Even if LLMs became better during the year, you'd still expect an increase in releases.
  - cmpxchg8b 8mo ago
    Maybe, but these days a vast amount of software is hidden behind online services. I'm not sure you'd see the hidden iceberg.
theshrike79 8mo ago
The software being written isn't coming to "the market". It's all internal development. Look at smaller SaaS offerings and people selling tiny utility apps, those will go away slowly. Why would I pay for something when I can make it for my own (or company internal) use in an afternoon?

izacus 8mo ago

What are you willing to bet on that prediction? Your car? Your home? Talk is cheap, let's see the money :D