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Shouldn’t job openings always trend upwards with increasing population?
by standeven 8mo ago
Shouldn’t job openings always trend upwards with increasing population?
- fred_is_fred 8mo agoIs that still true? I would guess net immigration is 0 or negative at this point.
- jldugger 8mo agoFred also has that answer: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM Growing up to an estimated 342 million. It also has an estimate for the working population (ages 25-54, so called "prime workers"): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00000060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00000060 Mostly flat from 2010-2021, with a recent uptick to 131 million. The discrepancy is likely due to the boomers aging out of the category, and a smaller generation coming in.
- jeffbee 8mo agoMaybe this isn't what you meant, but Millennials are the larger generation and they just finished aging into the workforce category.
- loeg 8mo agoThe youngest Millennials were 18 in 2014 and 22 in 2018. At this point, it's the smaller Gen Z entering the workforce, not Millennials.
- jeffbee 8mo agoLet me put it another way: the [20, 25) and [25, 30) age cohorts are larger than any cohort aged 50+ that might have recently aged out. So that "prime age" workforce is still growing.
- loeg 8mo agoThis could be true, but it isn't obviously true (to me). (I dispute a little bit the idea that there are many new workers in the [25, 30) demo.) There are 37M workers 55+, but only 20M in the 16-24 range: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18b.htm https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18b.htm (2024 numbers)
- asperous 8mo agoFRED lets you control for population actually! It does flatten the change a bit but it's still a bump: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Q8J6 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Q8J6