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> German podcast There was a Planet Money episode touching on Maritime law: https://www.npr.org/2025/10/17/nx-s1-5577076/shadow-fleet-russian-oil-tanker-sanct

> German podcast There was a Planet Money episode touching on Maritime law: https://www.npr.org/2025/10/17/nx-s1-5577076/shadow-fleet-russian-oil-tanker-sanctions-boracay https://www.npr.org/2025/10/17/nx-s1-5577076/shadow-fleet-ru... It was about Russian tankers breaking the sanctions, but with a well put explanation of why we can't just stop these ships even with extreme confidence in their fraudulency.

JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
> why we can't just stop these ships To be clear, why we don’t want to. Freedom of navigation makes all of us tremendously richer, even if it permits such fuckery. Every great power has, at this point, rejected the notion in limited contexts. And if you’re not concerned about trashing trade, there is no incoherence to ignoring these rules.
- nradov 9mo ago
  In a hypothetical future where sailing under flags of convenience becomes untenable, all the legitimate merchant vessel owners would rush to register in the US or China. Those vessels would still be able to sail anywhere unmolested. Outside of a few pirate gangs, no one would be stupid enough to screw with them and risk kinetic retaliation. This might increase shipping costs by a few percent. Russia can bluster and threaten but their navy is weak and shrinking. Most of their commissioned warships never venture far from port. Outside of their territorial waters they have minimal capability to protect their own merchant vessels or interdict anyone else's sea lines of communication.
  - MangoToupe 9mo ago
    > all the legitimate merchant vessel owners would rush to register in the US or China The US can't afford to field the navy necessary to back this ams hasn't been able to for many decades
    - JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
      > US can't afford to field the navy necessary to back this ams hasn't been able to for many decades This is nonsense. The U.S. Navy de facto guarantees freedom of navigation today. Globally. If we switched to a national system, our Navy wouldn’t literally escort U.S.-flagged ships. Its military would just need to enforce the threat that you get bombed if you fuck with America. We’d save money switching to a big-stick model. (I think we’d be poorer for it in the long run. But if you’re playing chess and your opponent machete, you’re not going to find any winning moves on the board.)
      - deleted 9mo ago
        [deleted]
      - lostlogin 9mo ago
        > Its military would just need to enforce the threat that you get bombed if you fuck with America. Panting a Russian flag on the side of a crappy tanker is enough to get the US to back off. Russia can do what it likes with current US leadership. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/31/us/politics/russia-oil-tanker-venezuela.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/31/us/politics/russia-oil-ta...
        JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
        > Panting a Russian flag on the side of a crappy tanker is enough to get the US to back off Has the White House rolled over?
        lostlogin 9mo ago
        I can’t see any update that says they have engaged. So yes… I think.
        JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
        > can’t see any update that says they have engaged. So yes… I think. I wouldn't be suprised if Trump chickens out. But this logic is terrible. The same pursuit that has been happening for days continues to happen. That the pattern has not changed in reaction to new stimulus isn't proof that the stimulus worked.
m0llusk 9mo ago
As we are seeing, "can't" is a really strong word.
- makeitdouble 9mo ago
  Yes. I meant it more as "can't _just_", we can do it but need to account for serious ramifications in doing so at scale.

JumpCrisscross 9mo ago

> why we can't just stop these ships To be clear, why we don’t want to. Freedom of navigation makes all of us tremendously richer, even if it permits such fuckery. Every great power has, at this point, rejected the notion in limited contexts. And if you’re not concerned about trashing trade, there is no incoherence to ignoring these rules.

nradov 9mo ago
In a hypothetical future where sailing under flags of convenience becomes untenable, all the legitimate merchant vessel owners would rush to register in the US or China. Those vessels would still be able to sail anywhere unmolested. Outside of a few pirate gangs, no one would be stupid enough to screw with them and risk kinetic retaliation. This might increase shipping costs by a few percent. Russia can bluster and threaten but their navy is weak and shrinking. Most of their commissioned warships never venture far from port. Outside of their territorial waters they have minimal capability to protect their own merchant vessels or interdict anyone else's sea lines of communication.
- MangoToupe 9mo ago
  > all the legitimate merchant vessel owners would rush to register in the US or China The US can't afford to field the navy necessary to back this ams hasn't been able to for many decades
  - JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
    > US can't afford to field the navy necessary to back this ams hasn't been able to for many decades This is nonsense. The U.S. Navy de facto guarantees freedom of navigation today. Globally. If we switched to a national system, our Navy wouldn’t literally escort U.S.-flagged ships. Its military would just need to enforce the threat that you get bombed if you fuck with America. We’d save money switching to a big-stick model. (I think we’d be poorer for it in the long run. But if you’re playing chess and your opponent machete, you’re not going to find any winning moves on the board.)
    - deleted 9mo ago
      [deleted]
    - lostlogin 9mo ago
      > Its military would just need to enforce the threat that you get bombed if you fuck with America. Panting a Russian flag on the side of a crappy tanker is enough to get the US to back off. Russia can do what it likes with current US leadership. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/31/us/politics/russia-oil-tanker-venezuela.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/31/us/politics/russia-oil-ta...
      - JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
        > Panting a Russian flag on the side of a crappy tanker is enough to get the US to back off Has the White House rolled over?
        lostlogin 9mo ago
        I can’t see any update that says they have engaged. So yes… I think.
        JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
        > can’t see any update that says they have engaged. So yes… I think. I wouldn't be suprised if Trump chickens out. But this logic is terrible. The same pursuit that has been happening for days continues to happen. That the pattern has not changed in reaction to new stimulus isn't proof that the stimulus worked.

m0llusk 9mo ago

As we are seeing, "can't" is a really strong word.

makeitdouble 9mo ago
Yes. I meant it more as "can't _just_", we can do it but need to account for serious ramifications in doing so at scale.