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Because that's the definition that is leading to all these investments, the promise that very soon they will reach it. If Altman said plainly that LLMs will nev

Because that's the definition that is leading to all these investments, the promise that very soon they will reach it. If Altman said plainly that LLMs will never reach that stage, there would be a lot less investment into the industry.

aik 11mo ago
Hard disagree. You don’t need AGI to transform countless workflows within companies, current LLMs can do it. A lot of the current investments are to help with the demand with current generation LLMs (and use cases we know will keep opening up with incremental improvements). Are you aware of how intensely all the main companies that host leading models (azure, aws, etc) are throttling usage due to not enough data center capacity? (Eg. At my company we have 100x more demand than we can get capacity for, and we’re barely getting started. We have a roadmap with 1000x+ the current demand and we’re a relatively small company.) AGI would be more impactful of course, and some use cases aren’t possible until we have it, but that doesn’t diminish the value of current AI.
- Culonavirus 11mo ago
  Oh look, people with skin in the AI game insist AI is not a massive bubble. More news at 11.
  - aik 11mo ago
    We’re a regular old SaaS company that has figured out how to add massive value using AI. I am making no statements about valuations and bubbles. I’m actually guessing there is some bubble / overhype. That doesn’t mean it isn’t still incredibly valuable.
    - player1234 11mo ago
      [dead]
    - rhetocj23 11mo ago
      Link? And explain in detail, incrementally, what you have done so we can analyse it for ourselves?
- kllrnohj 11mo ago
  > Eg. At my company we have 100x more demand than we can get capacity for, and we’re barely getting started. We have a roadmap with 1000x+ the current demand and we’re a relatively small company. OpenAI's revenue is $13bn with 70% of that coming from people just spending $20/mo to talk to ChatGPT. Anthropic is projecting $9bn in revenue in 2025. For nice cold splash of reality, fucking Arizona Iced Tea has $3bn in revenue (also that's actual revenue not ARR) You might have 100x more demand than you can get capacity for, but if that 100x still puts you at a number that in absolute terms is small, it's not very impressive. Similarly if you're already not profitable and achieving 100x growth requires 1,000x in spend, that's also not a recipe for success. In fact it's a recipe for going bankrupt in a hurry.
  - hyperadvanced 11mo ago
    This is correct, it should burn the retinas of anyone thinking that OAI or Anthropic are in any way worth their multi-billion dollar valuations. I liked AK’s analysis of AI for coding here (it’s overly defensive, lacks style and functionality awareness, is a cargo cultist, and/or just does it wrong a lot) but autocomplete itself is super valuable, as is the ability to generate simple frontend code and let you solve the problem of making a user interface without needing a team of people with those in-house skills.
    - vharish 11mo ago
      There are many more use cases that aren't fully realised yet. With regards to coding, LLMs have shortcomings. However, there's a lot of work that can be automated. Any work that requires interaction with a computer can eventually be automated to some extent. To what extent is something only time can tell.
      - hyperadvanced 11mo ago
        Sure, but you don’t need AI to automate computer work. You can make a career out of formalizing the kinds of excel-jockeying that people do for reports or data entry
  - 11mo ago
- bloppe 11mo ago
  This is a relatively reasonable take. Unfortunately, that's not what most AI investors or non-technical punters think. Since GPT 1 it's been all about unlocking 100%+ annual GDP growth by wholesale white collar automation. I agree with AK that the actually effect on GDP will be more or less negligible, which will be an unmitigated disaster for us economically given how much cash has already been incinerated
- deleted 11mo ago
  [deleted]

aik 11mo ago

Hard disagree. You don’t need AGI to transform countless workflows within companies, current LLMs can do it. A lot of the current investments are to help with the demand with current generation LLMs (and use cases we know will keep opening up with incremental improvements). Are you aware of how intensely all the main companies that host leading models (azure, aws, etc) are throttling usage due to not enough data center capacity? (Eg. At my company we have 100x more demand than we can get capacity for, and we’re barely getting started. We have a roadmap with 1000x+ the current demand and we’re a relatively small company.) AGI would be more impactful of course, and some use cases aren’t possible until we have it, but that doesn’t diminish the value of current AI.

Culonavirus 11mo ago
Oh look, people with skin in the AI game insist AI is not a massive bubble. More news at 11.
- aik 11mo ago
  We’re a regular old SaaS company that has figured out how to add massive value using AI. I am making no statements about valuations and bubbles. I’m actually guessing there is some bubble / overhype. That doesn’t mean it isn’t still incredibly valuable.
  - player1234 11mo ago
    [dead]
  - rhetocj23 11mo ago
    Link? And explain in detail, incrementally, what you have done so we can analyse it for ourselves?
kllrnohj 11mo ago
> Eg. At my company we have 100x more demand than we can get capacity for, and we’re barely getting started. We have a roadmap with 1000x+ the current demand and we’re a relatively small company. OpenAI's revenue is $13bn with 70% of that coming from people just spending $20/mo to talk to ChatGPT. Anthropic is projecting $9bn in revenue in 2025. For nice cold splash of reality, fucking Arizona Iced Tea has $3bn in revenue (also that's actual revenue not ARR) You might have 100x more demand than you can get capacity for, but if that 100x still puts you at a number that in absolute terms is small, it's not very impressive. Similarly if you're already not profitable and achieving 100x growth requires 1,000x in spend, that's also not a recipe for success. In fact it's a recipe for going bankrupt in a hurry.
- hyperadvanced 11mo ago
  This is correct, it should burn the retinas of anyone thinking that OAI or Anthropic are in any way worth their multi-billion dollar valuations. I liked AK’s analysis of AI for coding here (it’s overly defensive, lacks style and functionality awareness, is a cargo cultist, and/or just does it wrong a lot) but autocomplete itself is super valuable, as is the ability to generate simple frontend code and let you solve the problem of making a user interface without needing a team of people with those in-house skills.
  - vharish 11mo ago
    There are many more use cases that aren't fully realised yet. With regards to coding, LLMs have shortcomings. However, there's a lot of work that can be automated. Any work that requires interaction with a computer can eventually be automated to some extent. To what extent is something only time can tell.
    - hyperadvanced 11mo ago
      Sure, but you don’t need AI to automate computer work. You can make a career out of formalizing the kinds of excel-jockeying that people do for reports or data entry
- 11mo ago
bloppe 11mo ago
This is a relatively reasonable take. Unfortunately, that's not what most AI investors or non-technical punters think. Since GPT 1 it's been all about unlocking 100%+ annual GDP growth by wholesale white collar automation. I agree with AK that the actually effect on GDP will be more or less negligible, which will be an unmitigated disaster for us economically given how much cash has already been incinerated
deleted 11mo ago
[deleted]