5 ms·

Can you list some examples where a city has tried this and it failed? The only example I can think of is Minneapolis, and they have seen lower rent increases t

Can you list some examples where a city has tried this and it failed? The only example I can think of is Minneapolis, and they have seen lower rent increases than similar cities, so it seems successful. But outside of that, I just don’t think it’s been tried enough to really make any conclusions right now.

cyberax 11mo ago
> Can you list some examples where a city has tried this and it failed? Moscow, Tokyo, Minneapolis, Seattle. Moscow is the one most familiar to me personally. They went full-in on density, demolishing 5-story buildings and putting in 20-story towers instead with the speed only possible in a corruption-filled society. You can guess what happened with housing costs. > The only example I can think of is Minneapolis, and they have seen lower rent increases than similar cities, so it seems successful. If I remove the labels from these graphs, would you be able to tell which one of them is MN and which one is WI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1N1sc https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1N1sc ? Rents are not a useful indicator short-term, they can be strongly affected by various transitionary events and the rent datasets are notoriously unreliable. But even then, the rent in MN is not affected that much: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&height=490 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&heig... > But outside of that, I just don’t think it’s been tried enough to really make any conclusions right now. It's been tried. With the expected results: more misery and higher housing costs. There are all these hilarious articles as a result: https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2023/4/26/upzoning-might-not-lower-housing-costs-do-it-anyway https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2023/4/26/upzoning-m... Or Tokyo, it always cracks me up. 2016 - "Tokyo may have found the solution to soaring housing costs": https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&height=490 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&heig... 2024 - "Whoops, nope. It's in an even worse bubble": https://www.ft.com/content/40ce3cdc-5bc3-486f-b9e9-700af1087a65 https://www.ft.com/content/40ce3cdc-5bc3-486f-b9e9-700af1087...
- brokencode 11mo ago
  You raise reasonable points. It seems like a common trend is that housing prices go up anyway due to outside investors buying up property, high income workers moving in and wanting luxury apartments, etc. Seems like we need to solve the demand part of the puzzle as well. There’s definitely no single easy solution here. It could also be that too few cities have increased housing supply, so the local effect is totally overwhelmed by a national or global effect. Either way, the bill is going forward, so we will be able to see the effects and reevaluate its effectiveness. I don’t think the idea of “just let the population go down” is a reasonable approach. Especially since it will be poorer people pushed out, even lifelong residents who are displaced by highly paid newcomers. It’s better to try something new and find out you were wrong than to never even try to solve the problem.
  - cyberax 11mo ago
    > You raise reasonable points. It seems like a common trend is that housing prices go up anyway due to outside investors buying up property, high income workers moving in and wanting luxury apartments, etc. Yes. And there will always be something else explaining the rising costs. You ban foreign investors (see: Vancouver)? You get local investment companies buying the properties instead. You start doing rent control? You get tons of dilapidated housing with generational poverty, among other skyrocketing market-based housing. > Seems like we need to solve the demand part of the puzzle as well. There’s definitely no single easy solution here. There actually is. Stop trying to make density happen. Instead, promote suburbs and smaller cities. It's as simple as that. > I don’t think the idea of “just let the population go down” is a reasonable approach. You don't get other options. > Especially since it will be poorer people pushed out, even lifelong residents who are displaced by highly paid newcomers. "Poor people" are the ones suffering from urbanization the most.
    - brokencode 11mo ago
      Nah, I’m not convinced. All I’m convinced of is that you don’t like density, not that it isn’t part of the solution. You don’t get to tell everybody else what the options are.

cyberax 11mo ago

> Can you list some examples where a city has tried this and it failed? Moscow, Tokyo, Minneapolis, Seattle. Moscow is the one most familiar to me personally. They went full-in on density, demolishing 5-story buildings and putting in 20-story towers instead with the speed only possible in a corruption-filled society. You can guess what happened with housing costs. > The only example I can think of is Minneapolis, and they have seen lower rent increases than similar cities, so it seems successful. If I remove the labels from these graphs, would you be able to tell which one of them is MN and which one is WI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1N1sc https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1N1sc ? Rents are not a useful indicator short-term, they can be strongly affected by various transitionary events and the rent datasets are notoriously unreliable. But even then, the rent in MN is not affected that much: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&height=490 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&heig... > But outside of that, I just don’t think it’s been tried enough to really make any conclusions right now. It's been tried. With the expected results: more misery and higher housing costs. There are all these hilarious articles as a result: https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2023/4/26/upzoning-might-not-lower-housing-costs-do-it-anyway https://archive.strongtowns.org/journal/2023/4/26/upzoning-m... Or Tokyo, it always cracks me up. 2016 - "Tokyo may have found the solution to soaring housing costs": https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&height=490 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1N1sB&heig... 2024 - "Whoops, nope. It's in an even worse bubble": https://www.ft.com/content/40ce3cdc-5bc3-486f-b9e9-700af1087a65 https://www.ft.com/content/40ce3cdc-5bc3-486f-b9e9-700af1087...

brokencode 11mo ago
You raise reasonable points. It seems like a common trend is that housing prices go up anyway due to outside investors buying up property, high income workers moving in and wanting luxury apartments, etc. Seems like we need to solve the demand part of the puzzle as well. There’s definitely no single easy solution here. It could also be that too few cities have increased housing supply, so the local effect is totally overwhelmed by a national or global effect. Either way, the bill is going forward, so we will be able to see the effects and reevaluate its effectiveness. I don’t think the idea of “just let the population go down” is a reasonable approach. Especially since it will be poorer people pushed out, even lifelong residents who are displaced by highly paid newcomers. It’s better to try something new and find out you were wrong than to never even try to solve the problem.
- cyberax 11mo ago
  > You raise reasonable points. It seems like a common trend is that housing prices go up anyway due to outside investors buying up property, high income workers moving in and wanting luxury apartments, etc. Yes. And there will always be something else explaining the rising costs. You ban foreign investors (see: Vancouver)? You get local investment companies buying the properties instead. You start doing rent control? You get tons of dilapidated housing with generational poverty, among other skyrocketing market-based housing. > Seems like we need to solve the demand part of the puzzle as well. There’s definitely no single easy solution here. There actually is. Stop trying to make density happen. Instead, promote suburbs and smaller cities. It's as simple as that. > I don’t think the idea of “just let the population go down” is a reasonable approach. You don't get other options. > Especially since it will be poorer people pushed out, even lifelong residents who are displaced by highly paid newcomers. "Poor people" are the ones suffering from urbanization the most.
  - brokencode 11mo ago
    Nah, I’m not convinced. All I’m convinced of is that you don’t like density, not that it isn’t part of the solution. You don’t get to tell everybody else what the options are.