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Going to leave this link here: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/ https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/ By many different measures, we are

Going to leave this link here: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/ https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250814/ By many different measures, we are at record valuations (though must be said, not P/E however). Tends not to end well. And housing prices are based on when mortgages were at 3% and have not reset accordingly. We are in everything bubble territory and have been.

rapsey 1y ago
People are quite bearish and the stock market is making all time highs. This is actually a very good sign, because we are far from any euphoria. Always keep in mind the old saying: pesimists get to be right and optimists get to be rich.
- thfuran 1y ago
  Only if they're optimistic at the right time and not the wrong one.
  - rapsey 1y ago
    Timing the market is a fallacy. Time in the market is what builds wealth.
    - thfuran 1y ago
      You're treating a statistical tendency as immutable law. It's true that attempting to time the market is not generally a good investment strategy, but every investment is made at some time, and some of those are very bad times to put money in the market. That it'll probably recover eventually doesn't much help if you've lost everything in the interim.
      - rapsey 1y ago
        Which is why you invest a percentage of your paycheque not wait to time the market.
- Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
  That quote definitely has some insane survivor bias in it. Optimists go bankrupt or something and you blame them on their work ethic or something and you discard any of those optimists who didn't really succeed and cherry pick those optimists which went right... Its a classic survivorship bias. I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI for returns and its definitely a bubble or approaches its territory, there is somewhat no denying about it from what I observe. Your comment really is just off putting to me because I feel like its just a copium which is going to be inhaled by the new generation and then if we fail which lets be honest failure is a natural part of life, we are gonna blame ourselves and that's just really depressing. I'd better be right than rich. Maybe my rich definition is something that I can get out of hard work while maybe being pessimist (just enough money to have freedom lol) I don't want to make billions or hundreds of millions, i don't want to build a vc funded disaster for humanity in the name of shareholders whether its an Ad dystopia or an AI nightmare fuel, I'd rather make a imprint on humanity other than my bank account number but maybe that's me being "optimistic" Sorry but your comment truly ragebaited me... I have very strong opinions in this regards.
  - rapsey 1y ago
    > I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI The russel 2000 index just made an all time high. The bull market is diverse and global. Indexes of many countries are also at all time highs.
    - Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
      I am pessimistic in US S&P 500 for the most part actually given how concentrated it is in AI (refer to that hank green video) I also didn't know that the other world's stocks are doing fine actually. but maybe there is a difference in economy and stocks at this point... I believe that we can all surely agree on the legendary john bogle's philosophy and in the current day and age realize that us s&p stocks are too centralized on ai and world stocks can be better... Regarding russel 2000 index. I feel like a lot of money trickles down from the AI hype but its honestly great that russel is doing great. The point I am trying to make is that atleast for US right now, its political system is so shaky that I can't trust its economical system and there is no denying that if the AI bubble bursts, then it would bleed the whole economy at this point including russel. There was a great hank green video which I recommend about this concept https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZMFp-mEWoM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZMFp-mEWoM Also, A lot of countries are definitely in turmoil right now so I am actually surprised by your statements that world economy is doing quite high, maybe stock markets are just another asset class which have gotten so inflated that they are out of touch from the ground reality... (Something I heard in an atrioc video) I am definitely a bit surprised to hear that the world stocks are doing fine from all the bloodbath of tarrifs and some political issues the world is facing right now...
mrandish 1y ago
> Tends not to end well. I'm no financial guru but this time around the boom/bust cycle, there's a new, additional factor that's concerning. Even though I sold my individual tech company shares a few years ago and diversified all my equity holdings in broad market ETFs like VTI, the so-called "Magnificent 7" tech companies have inflated so much, they now occupy a disproportionate percentage of even broad market ETFs which hold ~5,000 stocks based on their market caps. The obvious issue being their share prices all having a significant component elevated by the same thing - unrealistic AI growth expectations.
- kapone 1y ago
  Two words. Passive flows. Where do you think your 401K money is going...right into the S&P 500...and who gets the lion's share of allocation out of that? The Mag7 et al. If you chart the last 25 years, Gold (yes, that one...the useless metal) has outperformed the S&P (and it's making new highs even today). What does that say about hard assets vs these companies?
psunavy03 1y ago
Housing prices have not reset because of supply and demand. People are sitting on those 3 percent mortgages and not selling.

rapsey 1y ago

People are quite bearish and the stock market is making all time highs. This is actually a very good sign, because we are far from any euphoria. Always keep in mind the old saying: pesimists get to be right and optimists get to be rich.

thfuran 1y ago
Only if they're optimistic at the right time and not the wrong one.
- rapsey 1y ago
  Timing the market is a fallacy. Time in the market is what builds wealth.
  - thfuran 1y ago
    You're treating a statistical tendency as immutable law. It's true that attempting to time the market is not generally a good investment strategy, but every investment is made at some time, and some of those are very bad times to put money in the market. That it'll probably recover eventually doesn't much help if you've lost everything in the interim.
    - rapsey 1y ago
      Which is why you invest a percentage of your paycheque not wait to time the market.
Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
That quote definitely has some insane survivor bias in it. Optimists go bankrupt or something and you blame them on their work ethic or something and you discard any of those optimists who didn't really succeed and cherry pick those optimists which went right... Its a classic survivorship bias. I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI for returns and its definitely a bubble or approaches its territory, there is somewhat no denying about it from what I observe. Your comment really is just off putting to me because I feel like its just a copium which is going to be inhaled by the new generation and then if we fail which lets be honest failure is a natural part of life, we are gonna blame ourselves and that's just really depressing. I'd better be right than rich. Maybe my rich definition is something that I can get out of hard work while maybe being pessimist (just enough money to have freedom lol) I don't want to make billions or hundreds of millions, i don't want to build a vc funded disaster for humanity in the name of shareholders whether its an Ad dystopia or an AI nightmare fuel, I'd rather make a imprint on humanity other than my bank account number but maybe that's me being "optimistic" Sorry but your comment truly ragebaited me... I have very strong opinions in this regards.
- rapsey 1y ago
  > I am pessimistic in US stocks because they are so concentrated on AI The russel 2000 index just made an all time high. The bull market is diverse and global. Indexes of many countries are also at all time highs.
  - Imustaskforhelp 1y ago
    I am pessimistic in US S&P 500 for the most part actually given how concentrated it is in AI (refer to that hank green video) I also didn't know that the other world's stocks are doing fine actually. but maybe there is a difference in economy and stocks at this point... I believe that we can all surely agree on the legendary john bogle's philosophy and in the current day and age realize that us s&p stocks are too centralized on ai and world stocks can be better... Regarding russel 2000 index. I feel like a lot of money trickles down from the AI hype but its honestly great that russel is doing great. The point I am trying to make is that atleast for US right now, its political system is so shaky that I can't trust its economical system and there is no denying that if the AI bubble bursts, then it would bleed the whole economy at this point including russel. There was a great hank green video which I recommend about this concept https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZMFp-mEWoM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZMFp-mEWoM Also, A lot of countries are definitely in turmoil right now so I am actually surprised by your statements that world economy is doing quite high, maybe stock markets are just another asset class which have gotten so inflated that they are out of touch from the ground reality... (Something I heard in an atrioc video) I am definitely a bit surprised to hear that the world stocks are doing fine from all the bloodbath of tarrifs and some political issues the world is facing right now...

mrandish 1y ago

> Tends not to end well. I'm no financial guru but this time around the boom/bust cycle, there's a new, additional factor that's concerning. Even though I sold my individual tech company shares a few years ago and diversified all my equity holdings in broad market ETFs like VTI, the so-called "Magnificent 7" tech companies have inflated so much, they now occupy a disproportionate percentage of even broad market ETFs which hold ~5,000 stocks based on their market caps. The obvious issue being their share prices all having a significant component elevated by the same thing - unrealistic AI growth expectations.

kapone 1y ago
Two words. Passive flows. Where do you think your 401K money is going...right into the S&P 500...and who gets the lion's share of allocation out of that? The Mag7 et al. If you chart the last 25 years, Gold (yes, that one...the useless metal) has outperformed the S&P (and it's making new highs even today). What does that say about hard assets vs these companies?

psunavy03 1y ago

Housing prices have not reset because of supply and demand. People are sitting on those 3 percent mortgages and not selling.