6 ms·

Everyone is bracing for a labor supply shock. It will move in the direction opposite what investors expect. 2030 will be 2020 all over again.

denkmoon 1y ago
Why?
- ModernMech 1y ago
  Combine a bunch of factors: 1) fewer students are studying computer science, I'm faculty at a top CS program and we saw our enrollment decline for the first time ever. Other universities are seeing similar slowdowns of enrollment [1] 2) fewer immigrants coming to the united states to work and live, US is perhaps looking at its first population decline ever [2] 3) Current juniors are being stunted by AI, they will not develop the necessary skills to become seniors. 4) Seniors retiring faster because they don't want to have to deal with this AI crap, taking their knowledge with them. So we're looking at a negative bubble forming in the software engineering expertise pipeline. The money people are hoping that AI can become proficient enough to fill that space before before everything bursts. Engineers, per usual, are pointing out the problem before it becomes one and no one is listening. [1]: https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/computer-science-bubble-ai/683242 https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/computer... [2]: https://nypost.com/2025/09/03/us-news/us-population-could-shrink-for-first-time-ever-in-2025-alarming-data-shows https://nypost.com/2025/09/03/us-news/us-population-could-sh...
- roncesvalles 1y ago
  1. OBBB rolled back the R&D deduction changes in Section 174 that (allegedly) triggered the layoffs and froze up hiring in 2022-2023. 2. It looks like rates will keep going down. 3. Fewer people are going into CS due to the AI hysteria. You might say oh there's a 4 year lag, but not quite. We should see an immediate impact from career changers, CS grads choosing between career and professional school, and those switching out of CS careers. The tech AI fear hysteria is so widespread that I've even heard of people avoiding non-SWE tech careers like PM.
- rsynnott 1y ago
  If (a) companies lay too many people off because the magic robots will make engineers unnecessary and (b) the pipeline collapses, because being a software engineer is an undesirable career because it is being replaced by robots and (c) it emerges that the robots are kinda bullshit, then there's going to be one hell of a shortage. When I started a CS degree in 2003, we were still kinda in the "dot com crash has happened, no-one will ever hire a programmer again" phase, and there were about 50 people in my starting class. I think in the same course two years ago, there'd been about 200. The 'correct' number, for actual future demand, was certainly closer to 200 than 50, and the industry as a whole had a bit of a labour crunch in the early 10s in particular.
  - DrillShopper 1y ago
    Holding on for that sweet sweet pay bump after the coming AI winter
  - InsideOutSanta 1y ago
    I believe we are vastly underestimating the number of programmers needed, as some companies reap unusually high rewards from hiring programmers. Companies like Google can pay huge sums of money to programmers because they make even higher sums of money from the programmer's work. This means that they inflate programmer salaries, which makes it impossible for most companies that could benefit from software development to hire developers. We could probably have five times as many software developers as we have now, and they would not be out of work; they would only decrease average salaries for programmers.
    - phatskat 1y ago
      But if only Google or similarly sized companies can pay that well, and there’s tons of programmers, obviously the average salary will balance out lower than what Google pay but will still be competitive to the thousands of programmers who didn’t get hired at Google.
      - roncesvalles 1y ago

denkmoon 1y ago

Why?

ModernMech 1y ago
Combine a bunch of factors: 1) fewer students are studying computer science, I'm faculty at a top CS program and we saw our enrollment decline for the first time ever. Other universities are seeing similar slowdowns of enrollment [1] 2) fewer immigrants coming to the united states to work and live, US is perhaps looking at its first population decline ever [2] 3) Current juniors are being stunted by AI, they will not develop the necessary skills to become seniors. 4) Seniors retiring faster because they don't want to have to deal with this AI crap, taking their knowledge with them. So we're looking at a negative bubble forming in the software engineering expertise pipeline. The money people are hoping that AI can become proficient enough to fill that space before before everything bursts. Engineers, per usual, are pointing out the problem before it becomes one and no one is listening. [1]: https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/computer-science-bubble-ai/683242 https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/computer... [2]: https://nypost.com/2025/09/03/us-news/us-population-could-shrink-for-first-time-ever-in-2025-alarming-data-shows https://nypost.com/2025/09/03/us-news/us-population-could-sh...
roncesvalles 1y ago
1. OBBB rolled back the R&D deduction changes in Section 174 that (allegedly) triggered the layoffs and froze up hiring in 2022-2023. 2. It looks like rates will keep going down. 3. Fewer people are going into CS due to the AI hysteria. You might say oh there's a 4 year lag, but not quite. We should see an immediate impact from career changers, CS grads choosing between career and professional school, and those switching out of CS careers. The tech AI fear hysteria is so widespread that I've even heard of people avoiding non-SWE tech careers like PM.
rsynnott 1y ago
If (a) companies lay too many people off because the magic robots will make engineers unnecessary and (b) the pipeline collapses, because being a software engineer is an undesirable career because it is being replaced by robots and (c) it emerges that the robots are kinda bullshit, then there's going to be one hell of a shortage. When I started a CS degree in 2003, we were still kinda in the "dot com crash has happened, no-one will ever hire a programmer again" phase, and there were about 50 people in my starting class. I think in the same course two years ago, there'd been about 200. The 'correct' number, for actual future demand, was certainly closer to 200 than 50, and the industry as a whole had a bit of a labour crunch in the early 10s in particular.
- DrillShopper 1y ago
  Holding on for that sweet sweet pay bump after the coming AI winter
- InsideOutSanta 1y ago
  I believe we are vastly underestimating the number of programmers needed, as some companies reap unusually high rewards from hiring programmers. Companies like Google can pay huge sums of money to programmers because they make even higher sums of money from the programmer's work. This means that they inflate programmer salaries, which makes it impossible for most companies that could benefit from software development to hire developers. We could probably have five times as many software developers as we have now, and they would not be out of work; they would only decrease average salaries for programmers.
  - phatskat 1y ago
    But if only Google or similarly sized companies can pay that well, and there’s tons of programmers, obviously the average salary will balance out lower than what Google pay but will still be competitive to the thousands of programmers who didn’t get hired at Google.
    - roncesvalles 1y ago