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That assumes he would have stopped with the shenanigans, which is a pretty big if.
by stravant 1y ago
That assumes he would have stopped with the shenanigans, which is a pretty big if.
- Symmetry 1y agoProudly proclaiming on the Conversations With Tyler podcast that given a double or nothing bet with a 51% chance of success he'd keep playing forever.
- AnimalMuppet 1y agoNot forever. He'd have nothing soon enough.
- arduanika 1y agoIt is probably just a coincidence, but it's darkly funny how well this lines up with the strategy described in a rather infamous LessWrong post. The title is "Solutions to the Altruist's burden: the Quantum Billionaire Trick", but you probably know it by a different name. The author is one Roko Mijic.
- rsynnott 1y agoProbably not a total confidence; it’s EA/rationalist theory taken to ludicrous extremes in both cases.
- twostorytower 1y agoIsn't that just the right thing to do, statistically? Vegas has been operating profitably this way for decades.
- FergusArgyll 1y agoThe context was double or nothing the entire human population of the universe.
- roncesvalles 1y agoIt's not the same due to the Law of Large Numbers. The risk involved in many small 51% bets is very different from the risk in a single all-or-nothing 51% bet.
- lelanthran 1y ago> The risk involved in many small 51% bets is very different from the risk in a single all-or-nothing 51% bet. Right, but parent didn't say anything about an all-in bet, just double-or-nothing on a positive EV bet. Frankly, I'd repeatedly bet on a positive EV bet too; it's a guaranteed win if you're allowed to go on for as long as you want to.