Ichiro and Steve Nash are wonderful role models, but I don't think they're very good models, which this essay seems to overlook. "Black Swan Farming" is about t

Ichiro and Steve Nash are wonderful role models, but I don't think they're very good models, which this essay seems to overlook. "Black Swan Farming" is about the enormous, counterintuitive variance of returns to startup investments. Sports just isn't in the same domain: a batter with 1000x more hits than the league average is inconceivable, but 1000x variations in startup outcomes are quite common.