7 ms·

I remember reading this two years ago. And one year ago, too.

ch4s3 1y ago
Yeah, I mean there's a chance they're wrong and some chance they'll eventually be right. At this point it's clearly impossible to say for sure what the outcome might be. There were plenty of people in 2005 saying there was a housing bubble in the making and plenty of evidence that they were wrong. Were they right but too early? Were they wrong on fundamentals but happened to have guessed right? We could be seeing something similar here where the nay sayers are right for the wrong reasons, or they're simply haters whose desires may align with the eventual outcomes. Or not.
- wongarsu 1y ago
  There were also people who said in 1999 that there was an unsustainable bubble of "internet" businesses. And they were right. The bubble burst, and the internet still went on to change the world No doubt there's a lot of stuff right now that's completely overvalued, and companies that try to do things that the technology just isn't ready for yet. Those will eventually be culled, either one by one or all at once in a big burst. But for the way AI changes industries and our lifes that will only be a speed bump
  - ch4s3 1y ago
    This is essentially what I’m saying. More succinctly, you can be right or wrong about a macro trend but your correctness is probably more time-boxed than people expect.
deleted 1y ago
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derektank 1y ago
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
eikenberry 1y ago
Bubbles can last much longer than a couple years. The housing bubble in the US that finally popped in 2008 was building for at least a decade.
matthewdgreen 1y ago
I remember reading this for years before the dot com bubble imploded, years before the housing bubble impoded, and months before the market woke up to the fact that COVID existed. (At least governments decided to print that last one away.) On a more serious note, the fundamental issue in the first two crashes was that the markets stopped being able to rationally price things. My view is that this doesn't always mean there will be an immediate crash. It just means that when the inevitable downturn does happen, nobody will be able to figure out the correct pricing for anything -- and so a correction turns into a catastrophe.

Yeah, I mean there's a chance they're wrong and some chance they'll eventually be right. At this point it's clearly impossible to say for sure what the outcome might be. There were plenty of people in 2005 saying there was a housing bubble in the making and plenty of evidence that they were wrong. Were they right but too early? Were they wrong on fundamentals but happened to have guessed right? We could be seeing something similar here where the nay sayers are right for the wrong reasons, or they're simply haters whose desires may align with the eventual outcomes. Or not.

wongarsu 1y ago
There were also people who said in 1999 that there was an unsustainable bubble of "internet" businesses. And they were right. The bubble burst, and the internet still went on to change the world No doubt there's a lot of stuff right now that's completely overvalued, and companies that try to do things that the technology just isn't ready for yet. Those will eventually be culled, either one by one or all at once in a big burst. But for the way AI changes industries and our lifes that will only be a speed bump
- ch4s3 1y ago
  This is essentially what I’m saying. More succinctly, you can be right or wrong about a macro trend but your correctness is probably more time-boxed than people expect.

deleted 1y ago

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derektank 1y ago

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

eikenberry 1y ago

Bubbles can last much longer than a couple years. The housing bubble in the US that finally popped in 2008 was building for at least a decade.

matthewdgreen 1y ago

I remember reading this for years before the dot com bubble imploded, years before the housing bubble impoded, and months before the market woke up to the fact that COVID existed. (At least governments decided to print that last one away.) On a more serious note, the fundamental issue in the first two crashes was that the markets stopped being able to rationally price things. My view is that this doesn't always mean there will be an immediate crash. It just means that when the inevitable downturn does happen, nobody will be able to figure out the correct pricing for anything -- and so a correction turns into a catastrophe.