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So this confirms a best-in-class model release within the next few days? From a strategic perspective, I can't think of any reason they'd release this unless t

So this confirms a best-in-class model release within the next few days? From a strategic perspective, I can't think of any reason they'd release this unless they were about to announce something which totally eclipses it?

famouswaffles 1y ago
Even before today, the last week or so, it's been clear for a couple reasons, that GPT-5's release was imminent.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
ticulatedspline 1y ago
Even without an imminent release it's a good strategy. They're getting pressure from Qwen and other high performing open-weight models. without a horse in the race they could fall behind in an entire segment. There's future opportunity in licensing, tech support, agents, or even simply to dominate and eliminate. Not to mention brand awareness, If you like these you might be more likely to approach their brand for larger models.
winterrx 1y ago
GPT-5 coming Thursday.
- boringg 1y ago
  How much hype do we anticipate with the release of GPT-5 or whichever name to be included? And how many new features?
  - selectodude 1y ago
    Excited to have to send them a copy of my drivers license to try and use it. That’ll take the hype down a notch.
  - XCSme 1y ago
    Imagine if it's called GPT-4.5o
- ciaranmca 1y ago
  Is this the stealth models horizon alpha and beta? I was generally impressed with them(although I really only used it in chats rather than any code tasks). In terms of chat I increasingly see very little difference between the current SOTA closed models and their open weight counterparts.
  - deviation 1y ago
    Their tokenization suggests they're new Qwen models AFAIK. They tokenize input to the exact same # of tokens that Qwen models do.
logicchains 1y ago
> I can't think of any reason they'd release this unless they were about to announce something which totally eclipses it Given it's only around 5 billion active params it shouldn't be a competitor to o3 or any of the other SOTA models, given the top Deepseek and Qwen models have around 30 billion active params. Unless OpenAI somehow found a way to make a model with 5 billion active params perform as well as one with 4-8 times more.
bredren 1y ago
Undoubtedly. It would otherwise reduce the perceived value of their current product offering. The question is how much better the new model(s) will need to be on the metrics given here to feel comfortable making these available. Despite the loss of face for lack of open model releases, I do not think that was a big enough problem t undercut commercial offerings.
FergusArgyll 1y ago
Thursday https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-what-day-will-gpt5-be-released https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-what-day-will-gpt5-be-r...
semitones 1y ago
You hit the nail on the head!!!

famouswaffles 1y ago

Even before today, the last week or so, it's been clear for a couple reasons, that GPT-5's release was imminent.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

ticulatedspline 1y ago

Even without an imminent release it's a good strategy. They're getting pressure from Qwen and other high performing open-weight models. without a horse in the race they could fall behind in an entire segment. There's future opportunity in licensing, tech support, agents, or even simply to dominate and eliminate. Not to mention brand awareness, If you like these you might be more likely to approach their brand for larger models.

winterrx 1y ago

GPT-5 coming Thursday.

boringg 1y ago
How much hype do we anticipate with the release of GPT-5 or whichever name to be included? And how many new features?
- selectodude 1y ago
  Excited to have to send them a copy of my drivers license to try and use it. That’ll take the hype down a notch.
- XCSme 1y ago
  Imagine if it's called GPT-4.5o
ciaranmca 1y ago
Is this the stealth models horizon alpha and beta? I was generally impressed with them(although I really only used it in chats rather than any code tasks). In terms of chat I increasingly see very little difference between the current SOTA closed models and their open weight counterparts.
- deviation 1y ago
  Their tokenization suggests they're new Qwen models AFAIK. They tokenize input to the exact same # of tokens that Qwen models do.

logicchains 1y ago

> I can't think of any reason they'd release this unless they were about to announce something which totally eclipses it Given it's only around 5 billion active params it shouldn't be a competitor to o3 or any of the other SOTA models, given the top Deepseek and Qwen models have around 30 billion active params. Unless OpenAI somehow found a way to make a model with 5 billion active params perform as well as one with 4-8 times more.

bredren 1y ago

Undoubtedly. It would otherwise reduce the perceived value of their current product offering. The question is how much better the new model(s) will need to be on the metrics given here to feel comfortable making these available. Despite the loss of face for lack of open model releases, I do not think that was a big enough problem t undercut commercial offerings.

FergusArgyll 1y ago

Thursday https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-what-day-will-gpt5-be-released https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/on-what-day-will-gpt5-be-r...

semitones 1y ago

You hit the nail on the head!!!