9 ms·

Australia’s gains in wheat-farm productivity

84 points by tiarafawn 1y ago

skywal_l 1y ago
"The green revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only." Norman Borlaug Nobel Prize lecture [0] [0] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/lecture/ https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/lecture...
- XorNot 1y ago
  Most countries on Earth have declining birth rates, many first world countries have negative population growth. Overpopulation isn't a thing.
  - gefriertrockner 1y ago
    Overpopulation is a thing in parts of South Asia and Africa. Climate change can affect the agricultural output in many countries and thus the land will support less people. The population growth is still very relevant in most of the affected countries. So overpopulation will definitely be a thing, unless there are real technological breakthroughs.
    - nemomarx 1y ago
      no break throughs needed - provide birth control and education in those regions and the rate will slow
- pseudo0 1y ago
  A bit ironic to quote that considering how the speech was 55 years ago, and the green revolution is going stronger than ever. If anything the crisis of the next 50 years will be the economic and societal pressures crushing the childbirth rate in Western countries.
  - slavik81 1y ago
    It's terrifying that 96% of all mammalian life on Earth is now human beings and our livestock. We might be able to feed more people, but habitat destruction is already the greatest threat to most wild species. Humans are doing fine, but the toll on everything non-human has been enormous. We are living through one of the greatest mass-extinction events in Earth's history. I don't fear famine, but I worry about what we're doing to our planet.
    - b112 1y ago
      You should fear famine. The biggest issues with global warming or famine, are the wars they will cause. If large prosperous nations cannot obtain food, that is, no one has food to sell, then those nations will take food. At whatever cost. If they do not, then such a nation will tear itself apart from within. The options are, take from others, or take from your fellow citizens. This is the reality, and no amount of hope or wishful dreams will change that fact. People will not let their children starve.
      - rkomorn 1y ago
        You're absolutely right about the path to war. This is why famine and access to fresh water are my two biggest worries when it comes to our climate change driven future.
        b112 1y ago
        Even softer changes due to climate change are worrisome. Imagine if ocean currents shifted, which keep Northern California up into BC warmer, and the UK and other parts of Europe warmer. That's a lot of farmland changed. The inverse could happen too. Instead of no longer bringing warm water to those coasts, cold water currents could arrive. You could have snow in Norhern California for most of the year, even while the rest of the planet warms. So many variables. Canada has immense amounts of bog thawing, and bog/swamp is very fertile land. But it's still further North, which means short growing seasons, and too much sun for some plants per day. We should be creating crops which can handle those conditions, even if just through normal breeding. Ah well.
- decimalenough 1y ago
  His lecture was in 1970 and the "three decades" elapsed 25 years ago. People are still starving, but not for lack of agricultural production.
dinkblam 1y ago
> Australia has among the lowest agricultural subsidies other countries would be wise to adopt that, but there is zero chance of that happening.
- mike-the-mikado 1y ago
  > other countries would be wise to adopt that Until they can't import food and can't feed their people
  - robbiep 1y ago
    In the US and much of Europe, the subsidies are to NOT produce, not to produce more
    - ls612 1y ago
      To not produce in ordinary times. The thinking is that in time of war it’s easy to then say “go wild” and ensure your food supply is abundant.
    - EdwardDiego 1y ago
      And in the US, a lot of the subsidies flow towards food that isn't edible without processing - soybeans and field corn as opposed to sweet corn. Why? Because they've always grown it. So the subsidies encourage them to keep on growing it instead of diversifying into more competitive or higher value crops.
      - bluGill 1y ago
        What subsidies?
        EdwardDiego 1y ago
        https://usafacts.org/articles/federal-farm-subsidies-what-data-says/ https://usafacts.org/articles/federal-farm-subsidies-what-da...
neonate 1y ago
https://archive.md/yxoUc https://archive.md/yxoUc
cadamsdotcom 1y ago
Score one for anti-protectionism.
- ikr678 1y ago
  Many of Australia'a agricultural markets are isolated by strong biosecurity/quarantine restrictions. Not subsidies, but a form of protection nonetheless. There are even internal borders- transporting produce across state lines is usually restricted.

84 points by tiarafawn 1y ago

"The green revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only." Norman Borlaug Nobel Prize lecture [0] [0] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/lecture/ https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/lecture...

XorNot 1y ago
Most countries on Earth have declining birth rates, many first world countries have negative population growth. Overpopulation isn't a thing.
- gefriertrockner 1y ago
  Overpopulation is a thing in parts of South Asia and Africa. Climate change can affect the agricultural output in many countries and thus the land will support less people. The population growth is still very relevant in most of the affected countries. So overpopulation will definitely be a thing, unless there are real technological breakthroughs.
  - nemomarx 1y ago
    no break throughs needed - provide birth control and education in those regions and the rate will slow
pseudo0 1y ago
A bit ironic to quote that considering how the speech was 55 years ago, and the green revolution is going stronger than ever. If anything the crisis of the next 50 years will be the economic and societal pressures crushing the childbirth rate in Western countries.
- slavik81 1y ago
  It's terrifying that 96% of all mammalian life on Earth is now human beings and our livestock. We might be able to feed more people, but habitat destruction is already the greatest threat to most wild species. Humans are doing fine, but the toll on everything non-human has been enormous. We are living through one of the greatest mass-extinction events in Earth's history. I don't fear famine, but I worry about what we're doing to our planet.
  - b112 1y ago
    You should fear famine. The biggest issues with global warming or famine, are the wars they will cause. If large prosperous nations cannot obtain food, that is, no one has food to sell, then those nations will take food. At whatever cost. If they do not, then such a nation will tear itself apart from within. The options are, take from others, or take from your fellow citizens. This is the reality, and no amount of hope or wishful dreams will change that fact. People will not let their children starve.
    - rkomorn 1y ago
      You're absolutely right about the path to war. This is why famine and access to fresh water are my two biggest worries when it comes to our climate change driven future.
      - b112 1y ago
        Even softer changes due to climate change are worrisome. Imagine if ocean currents shifted, which keep Northern California up into BC warmer, and the UK and other parts of Europe warmer. That's a lot of farmland changed. The inverse could happen too. Instead of no longer bringing warm water to those coasts, cold water currents could arrive. You could have snow in Norhern California for most of the year, even while the rest of the planet warms. So many variables. Canada has immense amounts of bog thawing, and bog/swamp is very fertile land. But it's still further North, which means short growing seasons, and too much sun for some plants per day. We should be creating crops which can handle those conditions, even if just through normal breeding. Ah well.
decimalenough 1y ago
His lecture was in 1970 and the "three decades" elapsed 25 years ago. People are still starving, but not for lack of agricultural production.

dinkblam 1y ago

> Australia has among the lowest agricultural subsidies other countries would be wise to adopt that, but there is zero chance of that happening.

mike-the-mikado 1y ago
> other countries would be wise to adopt that Until they can't import food and can't feed their people
- robbiep 1y ago
  In the US and much of Europe, the subsidies are to NOT produce, not to produce more
  - ls612 1y ago
    To not produce in ordinary times. The thinking is that in time of war it’s easy to then say “go wild” and ensure your food supply is abundant.
  - EdwardDiego 1y ago
    And in the US, a lot of the subsidies flow towards food that isn't edible without processing - soybeans and field corn as opposed to sweet corn. Why? Because they've always grown it. So the subsidies encourage them to keep on growing it instead of diversifying into more competitive or higher value crops.
    - bluGill 1y ago
      What subsidies?
      - EdwardDiego 1y ago
        https://usafacts.org/articles/federal-farm-subsidies-what-data-says/ https://usafacts.org/articles/federal-farm-subsidies-what-da...

neonate 1y ago

https://archive.md/yxoUc https://archive.md/yxoUc

cadamsdotcom 1y ago

Score one for anti-protectionism.

ikr678 1y ago
Many of Australia'a agricultural markets are isolated by strong biosecurity/quarantine restrictions. Not subsidies, but a form of protection nonetheless. There are even internal borders- transporting produce across state lines is usually restricted.