6 ms·

Which guys? The democrats or the thorium and nuclear advocates? Would you care to elaborate?

dalke 14y ago
The thorium and nuclear advocates. In the 1950s, during the 'Atomic Age', we heard over and over that nuclear power plants were safe, and the power source of the future. The Atomic Energy Commission said that nuclear power would soon be as cheap as power from other sources. We said 'go ahead!' It's easy to be optimistic about thorium and nuclear energy. The problem is that our optimism has burned us before, and in big, easily obvious ways at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, but also in the difficulties of radioactive waste management. And we don't have practical evidence that thorium power really will be useful, only assurances from the same sorts of people that said, back in the 1950s, that fission power was safe and would soon be as cheap as that from conventional sources. Reread the letter from the Telegraph. It doesn't want to deal with the decades of lying "self-serving opponents of anything nuclear science", and the "waste" that is the Blue Ribbon Commission on nuclear waste, nor the effort to "convince the anti-nuclear voters that their thinking has been wrong." Instead, the author wants to make an end-run around to entire system: bypass the legislative system and the popular vote, and appeal directly to the executive, almost as if the executive were tzar. That's why the letter sounds desperate. It's thrown its hands up at democracy. The obvious, and mentioned, analogy is to Kennedy and the moon program, but there was already popular support for the moon program; at the very least from pulp novels and TV shows. There was also no existing wide-spread concern about the public dangers of rockets. Therefore I don't see how they really are comparable.
- rickmaltese 14y ago
  More than REALLY desperate. How about seriously concerned for the well being of the planet? I guess if I were to die knowing that I helped reverse a calamity that allowed future generations to enjoy their futures rather than dwindle from disease, extreme weather, economic collapse or even a Mad Max scenario which might be a best case scenario, then I'd feel it was worth this effort. All I want to happen is that some form of energy that does not create green house gases to replace the coal plants and other polluting sources that are currently ruining the lives of many forms of animal and plant life on land and in the seas. We can make very good educated guesses about Thorium molten salt reactors that can be made better than the already successful experiments that took place at Oak Ridge National Laboratory back in the 60's and 70's. Scientists who actually study nuclear energy know that the damage caused by the fossil fuels has been far, far greater than that cause by nuclear energy. If I were preaching to the President to lie to the public then that would be pathetic. It would be non-democratic to try to go with the whole mess without getting the people's approval but that is not what the article is saying. I wrote the article and I do believe that people want to know the truth and if someone like Obama were to suddenly start down that path there is a much better chance that he would get that message across than anyone else. In case you had not noticed every election year is getting further and further from democracy because neither candidate is addressing the real problems in their campaigns. When they do get elected after a close election nothing much changes. They are criticized for false promises. Well I'm only asking that something valuable actual be part of the agenda. The system does not work very well. The wealthy can damage an opponent anonymously by funding smear campaigns just because the opponents want to improve conditions for the majority of the population. The four year cycle that every president has does not get enough time to implement his plans and he's blamed for the damages caused by previous regimes. The republicans successfully blocked most of Obama's ideas for change then they criticize him for not doing anything. The fear factor has played a role in preventing technology from advancing. Besides the assassinations of the 60's and the terrorist attacks that keep killing people the irrational fear has been growing. Fear of things people don't understand is normal to some extent. What is beginning to be less normal is that people are willing to be fed information without investigating and seeking the truth. The Chernobyl accident is the only truly serious nuclear accident that took place. It is well documented. Even a little research reveals that Chernobyl was unique because it had no containment. That is why people died. The other two you mention had far less radiation and no deaths occurred at Three Mile Island or are predicted by the well informed scientists and professionals at Fukushima. The article is really just an exercise to make the reader think.
  - dalke 14y ago
    You asked why it sounded desperate. I gave you an answer. Now you're saying that you're "REALLY desperate." Then why did you ask the question when you already knew the answer? Ahh, but at the end you said it was "really just an exercise to make the reader think", so I take it it was not meant to be convincing. I already addressed your point about "very good educated guesses." That is, the people in the 1950s said that they made "very good educated guesses" about the reactors then being designed, which in turn were based on "already successful experiments." It's the same sort of people making the predictions now - how do we know that their predictions are any more well grounded? Freeman Dyson, in "Disturbing the Universe", gave a reason which resonates with me. In short, you need multiple iterations to get a the technology working well, and the reactors which came online in the 1950s-1970s were too early in the evolution cycle. The exception was military reactors, which went through lots of iterations, but of course which aren't appropriate for utility power generation. Which is exactly how the Moon missions worked - build plenty of rockets, watch them explode, figure out what went wrong, and do a new iteration. How many iterations of thorium power plants will we need to develop in order to make safe, efficient, economical thorium power plants? One, ten, one hundred? What practical experience justifies that estimate? So permit me to feel skeptical when I read echoes of the rose-colored promises from the Atomic Age which mention nothing about the practical matters learned the hard way. You may say that all you want is "some form of energy that does not create green house gases" but the article barely mentions other non-greenhouse-gas systems, and mostly dismissively in the ambiguously written line "The newest reactors produce far less waste, run far more safely and are far more reliable than solar or wind." (It's ambiguous because it reads like 'the newest reactors run far more safely than solar or wind', when it's trying to say that they are safer than older reactors.) It also mentions nothing about improved energy conservation. I never said anything about preaching to the President to lie. You (since you say you are the author) are the one who calls people liars, specifically the "self-serving opponents of anything nuclear science." Your comments about the political system are only somewhat applicable. The US is not the only political system in the world. India has strong economic incentives to go towards thorium, and have a technological base at least equal to the 1960s US, yet they don't predict working thorium reactors for at least another few decades. BTW, your argument seems to be that everything's getting corrupted, and you just want things to go corrupt in the way you want it to be. I am morally opposed to that justification. You mistake the lesson I took from TMI, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, which is that people don't like reactors because dense power sources which can't trivially be shut off are suspect. Coal is 'safe' because its direct failure modes is to catch on fire, and that's easily handled. Solar is 'safe' because its direct failure mode is to stop generating electricity. Wind is 'safe' because its failure mode is to fall down. Hydro based on large reservoirs is less safe, because the history of dam breaks shows that they have some pretty nasty failure modes. All of these 'safe' systems have have hundreds of design iterations and improvements, and real-world failures. Note that by 'safe' I am not including environmental impact. The term "safe" has several different meaning, and I'm limiting it to just this one. This article was supposed to make me think? It made me think that the author understands neither people nor politics nor history.
PythonDeveloper 14y ago
I'm pro-thorium. What got me was this guy was clearly only interested in having Obama work on this, as a means to get re-elected. If he was truly an advocate of the technology, he would have sent it to both parties. Thorium234 is much safer than uranium or other fissile material, and unlike those, it can be used to make neighborhood reactors, allowing energy independence on a local scale.
- rickmaltese 14y ago
  I'm the guy who posted the blog. If you were to see the blog in context you would change your point of view. The rest of the site is devoted to Thorium Molten Salt Reactors. Romney is the last person I would want to run for President. I think Obama needs an edge. By bringing in a controversial idea like clean green nuclear energy he might ruin his chances but he might not. It truly is a lesser of two evils situation. I happen to believe Romney is a lot worse. I have observed the situation closely. Steven Chu has no interest in solving the problems with the NRC. The NRC is seriously holding back innovation.
  - deleted 14y ago
    [deleted]

dalke 14y ago

The thorium and nuclear advocates. In the 1950s, during the 'Atomic Age', we heard over and over that nuclear power plants were safe, and the power source of the future. The Atomic Energy Commission said that nuclear power would soon be as cheap as power from other sources. We said 'go ahead!' It's easy to be optimistic about thorium and nuclear energy. The problem is that our optimism has burned us before, and in big, easily obvious ways at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, but also in the difficulties of radioactive waste management. And we don't have practical evidence that thorium power really will be useful, only assurances from the same sorts of people that said, back in the 1950s, that fission power was safe and would soon be as cheap as that from conventional sources. Reread the letter from the Telegraph. It doesn't want to deal with the decades of lying "self-serving opponents of anything nuclear science", and the "waste" that is the Blue Ribbon Commission on nuclear waste, nor the effort to "convince the anti-nuclear voters that their thinking has been wrong." Instead, the author wants to make an end-run around to entire system: bypass the legislative system and the popular vote, and appeal directly to the executive, almost as if the executive were tzar. That's why the letter sounds desperate. It's thrown its hands up at democracy. The obvious, and mentioned, analogy is to Kennedy and the moon program, but there was already popular support for the moon program; at the very least from pulp novels and TV shows. There was also no existing wide-spread concern about the public dangers of rockets. Therefore I don't see how they really are comparable.

rickmaltese 14y ago
More than REALLY desperate. How about seriously concerned for the well being of the planet? I guess if I were to die knowing that I helped reverse a calamity that allowed future generations to enjoy their futures rather than dwindle from disease, extreme weather, economic collapse or even a Mad Max scenario which might be a best case scenario, then I'd feel it was worth this effort. All I want to happen is that some form of energy that does not create green house gases to replace the coal plants and other polluting sources that are currently ruining the lives of many forms of animal and plant life on land and in the seas. We can make very good educated guesses about Thorium molten salt reactors that can be made better than the already successful experiments that took place at Oak Ridge National Laboratory back in the 60's and 70's. Scientists who actually study nuclear energy know that the damage caused by the fossil fuels has been far, far greater than that cause by nuclear energy. If I were preaching to the President to lie to the public then that would be pathetic. It would be non-democratic to try to go with the whole mess without getting the people's approval but that is not what the article is saying. I wrote the article and I do believe that people want to know the truth and if someone like Obama were to suddenly start down that path there is a much better chance that he would get that message across than anyone else. In case you had not noticed every election year is getting further and further from democracy because neither candidate is addressing the real problems in their campaigns. When they do get elected after a close election nothing much changes. They are criticized for false promises. Well I'm only asking that something valuable actual be part of the agenda. The system does not work very well. The wealthy can damage an opponent anonymously by funding smear campaigns just because the opponents want to improve conditions for the majority of the population. The four year cycle that every president has does not get enough time to implement his plans and he's blamed for the damages caused by previous regimes. The republicans successfully blocked most of Obama's ideas for change then they criticize him for not doing anything. The fear factor has played a role in preventing technology from advancing. Besides the assassinations of the 60's and the terrorist attacks that keep killing people the irrational fear has been growing. Fear of things people don't understand is normal to some extent. What is beginning to be less normal is that people are willing to be fed information without investigating and seeking the truth. The Chernobyl accident is the only truly serious nuclear accident that took place. It is well documented. Even a little research reveals that Chernobyl was unique because it had no containment. That is why people died. The other two you mention had far less radiation and no deaths occurred at Three Mile Island or are predicted by the well informed scientists and professionals at Fukushima. The article is really just an exercise to make the reader think.
- dalke 14y ago
  You asked why it sounded desperate. I gave you an answer. Now you're saying that you're "REALLY desperate." Then why did you ask the question when you already knew the answer? Ahh, but at the end you said it was "really just an exercise to make the reader think", so I take it it was not meant to be convincing. I already addressed your point about "very good educated guesses." That is, the people in the 1950s said that they made "very good educated guesses" about the reactors then being designed, which in turn were based on "already successful experiments." It's the same sort of people making the predictions now - how do we know that their predictions are any more well grounded? Freeman Dyson, in "Disturbing the Universe", gave a reason which resonates with me. In short, you need multiple iterations to get a the technology working well, and the reactors which came online in the 1950s-1970s were too early in the evolution cycle. The exception was military reactors, which went through lots of iterations, but of course which aren't appropriate for utility power generation. Which is exactly how the Moon missions worked - build plenty of rockets, watch them explode, figure out what went wrong, and do a new iteration. How many iterations of thorium power plants will we need to develop in order to make safe, efficient, economical thorium power plants? One, ten, one hundred? What practical experience justifies that estimate? So permit me to feel skeptical when I read echoes of the rose-colored promises from the Atomic Age which mention nothing about the practical matters learned the hard way. You may say that all you want is "some form of energy that does not create green house gases" but the article barely mentions other non-greenhouse-gas systems, and mostly dismissively in the ambiguously written line "The newest reactors produce far less waste, run far more safely and are far more reliable than solar or wind." (It's ambiguous because it reads like 'the newest reactors run far more safely than solar or wind', when it's trying to say that they are safer than older reactors.) It also mentions nothing about improved energy conservation. I never said anything about preaching to the President to lie. You (since you say you are the author) are the one who calls people liars, specifically the "self-serving opponents of anything nuclear science." Your comments about the political system are only somewhat applicable. The US is not the only political system in the world. India has strong economic incentives to go towards thorium, and have a technological base at least equal to the 1960s US, yet they don't predict working thorium reactors for at least another few decades. BTW, your argument seems to be that everything's getting corrupted, and you just want things to go corrupt in the way you want it to be. I am morally opposed to that justification. You mistake the lesson I took from TMI, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, which is that people don't like reactors because dense power sources which can't trivially be shut off are suspect. Coal is 'safe' because its direct failure modes is to catch on fire, and that's easily handled. Solar is 'safe' because its direct failure mode is to stop generating electricity. Wind is 'safe' because its failure mode is to fall down. Hydro based on large reservoirs is less safe, because the history of dam breaks shows that they have some pretty nasty failure modes. All of these 'safe' systems have have hundreds of design iterations and improvements, and real-world failures. Note that by 'safe' I am not including environmental impact. The term "safe" has several different meaning, and I'm limiting it to just this one. This article was supposed to make me think? It made me think that the author understands neither people nor politics nor history.

PythonDeveloper 14y ago

I'm pro-thorium. What got me was this guy was clearly only interested in having Obama work on this, as a means to get re-elected. If he was truly an advocate of the technology, he would have sent it to both parties. Thorium234 is much safer than uranium or other fissile material, and unlike those, it can be used to make neighborhood reactors, allowing energy independence on a local scale.

rickmaltese 14y ago
I'm the guy who posted the blog. If you were to see the blog in context you would change your point of view. The rest of the site is devoted to Thorium Molten Salt Reactors. Romney is the last person I would want to run for President. I think Obama needs an edge. By bringing in a controversial idea like clean green nuclear energy he might ruin his chances but he might not. It truly is a lesser of two evils situation. I happen to believe Romney is a lot worse. I have observed the situation closely. Steven Chu has no interest in solving the problems with the NRC. The NRC is seriously holding back innovation.
- deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]