22 ms·

Ah the propaganda troll... Talking about one thing and trying to deny it using another. That's lame. I'm talking about events not average. I'm also talking abo

by boudin 1y ago

Ah the propaganda troll... Talking about one thing and trying to deny it using another. That's lame. I'm talking about events not average. I'm also talking about facts. And if you really are in the uk you would know there has been lot of heatwave, intense rain and thunderstorm events in the uk the past few years. Just to push back on your bullshit, you can have the same rain yearly avearge as every other year and have no rain during the whole year but one. Your average would look good but your agriculture certainly not. Go bother someone else...

mike_hearn 1y ago
You mentioned an anonymous anecdote about a farmer in an unnamed country. That's not facts. The facts say that frequency and outlier events in rainfall haven't changed. I used the UK as an example because it has unusually long records on this topic. So, it's worth checking the Met Office's data on this to ground the discussion in something more concrete. Look at the graphs in this report: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2023.pdf?mc_cid=115af24a9b&mc_eid=c926002e71 https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2... Pages 5 and 6 show annual rainfall. It increased a little around 1870, but today it's not much different to rainfall levels in the 1910s. Winter average is a little higher recently but only due to heavy rains in the winter of 2013, otherwise there'd be nothing to see. Rainfall in other seasons hasn't changed at all. Page 7 shows just the most extreme years. "most of the ten wettest years occurred in the years up to and including 1960 (Figure 10a). The only two exceptions are 2000 and 2012. The situation regarding the ten driest years is even starker, with the most recent significant year being 1964 (Figure 10b)." Nor are there more or stronger storms. Wind speeds have actually been falling over time (page 10). It's turning into a financial issue for wind farms. The British government itself says that, also for the whole North Atlantic: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-global-extreme-events-wind-storms https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-... > The UK State of the Climate report states that there are no compelling trends in storminess when considering maximum gust speeds over the last four decades. More comprehensive studies across the North Atlantic region have reached similar conclusions. You need to stop attacking people who are responding to your anecdotes with data. A lot of people believe untrue things about the weather because they struggle to separate predictions about the future vs statements about the present. It's certainly possible there are places where rainfall has become markedly more intense. But if so, it's not a global phenomenon.
- boudin 1y ago
  Nice try and thanks for proving my point, continuing to try to lure to wrong conclusion using unrelated data. Actual storm events (just scrolling gives an idea of the acceleration of the phenomena): https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather-events https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather... Conclusion from a met office study around the direction we're going https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-change-shifting-uks-high-impact-weather/ https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-chan...
  - mike_hearn 1y ago
    You're still engaging in the same bad faith behaviors I called out before: "... stop attacking people who are responding to your anecdotes with data. A lot of people believe untrue things about the weather because they struggle to separate predictions about the future vs statements about the present." 1. Stop attacking people. There are no "propaganda trolls" attempting to "lure" anyone to the wrong conclusions here. 2. Stop citing anecdotes. Your list is a set of case studies hand picked by civil servants based on no published criteria, so it can't be used to determine the frequency of anything. You need observational data, which I already linked you to. Go look at it. 3. Stop presenting predictions in a discussion about what is actually happening! Your second link is the exact kind of confusion I just called out. Why are you citing predictions about the future in a discussion about the past and present? I'll ask again: where in the world are these farmers you talked to. Let us check the weather records and see if these farmers are simply confused in the same way you are.
    - boudin 1y ago
      I'm attacking you because you use well known manipulating techniques to deny scientific facts. You use yearly rainfall data which is not weather or climate, just statistics. You hand pick wind storm sentence to deny the existence of extreme weather events. We are talking about things happening now, I won't provide you studies from 20 years from now proving that it happened, I'm not from the future. This is about observation. You want some other data? Just look around. Example in France, situation of water crisis over time https://www.notre-environnement.gouv.fr/themes/economie/l-utilisation-des-ressources-naturelles-ressources/article/gestion-de-l-eau-en-periode-de-secheresse-en-france-metropolitaine-6326 https://www.notre-environnement.gouv.fr/themes/economie/l-ut... Here's an article about water shortage in the UK https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/01/why-uk-facing-water-shortages-despite-record-rainfall-explainer https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/01/why-uk-f... In the UK at least the Riverford farm has been talking about it for years when I was living there.

by boudin 1y ago

mike_hearn 1y ago

You mentioned an anonymous anecdote about a farmer in an unnamed country. That's not facts. The facts say that frequency and outlier events in rainfall haven't changed. I used the UK as an example because it has unusually long records on this topic. So, it's worth checking the Met Office's data on this to ground the discussion in something more concrete. Look at the graphs in this report: https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2023.pdf?mc_cid=115af24a9b&mc_eid=c926002e71 https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2024/11/UK-Weather-2... Pages 5 and 6 show annual rainfall. It increased a little around 1870, but today it's not much different to rainfall levels in the 1910s. Winter average is a little higher recently but only due to heavy rains in the winter of 2013, otherwise there'd be nothing to see. Rainfall in other seasons hasn't changed at all. Page 7 shows just the most extreme years. "most of the ten wettest years occurred in the years up to and including 1960 (Figure 10a). The only two exceptions are 2000 and 2012. The situation regarding the ten driest years is even starker, with the most recent significant year being 1964 (Figure 10b)." Nor are there more or stronger storms. Wind speeds have actually been falling over time (page 10). It's turning into a financial issue for wind farms. The British government itself says that, also for the whole North Atlantic: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-global-extreme-events-wind-storms https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-... > The UK State of the Climate report states that there are no compelling trends in storminess when considering maximum gust speeds over the last four decades. More comprehensive studies across the North Atlantic region have reached similar conclusions. You need to stop attacking people who are responding to your anecdotes with data. A lot of people believe untrue things about the weather because they struggle to separate predictions about the future vs statements about the present. It's certainly possible there are places where rainfall has become markedly more intense. But if so, it's not a global phenomenon.

boudin 1y ago
Nice try and thanks for proving my point, continuing to try to lure to wrong conclusion using unrelated data. Actual storm events (just scrolling gives an idea of the acceleration of the phenomena): https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather-events https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/past-uk-weather... Conclusion from a met office study around the direction we're going https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-change-shifting-uks-high-impact-weather/ https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/news-events/climate-chan...
- mike_hearn 1y ago
  You're still engaging in the same bad faith behaviors I called out before: "... stop attacking people who are responding to your anecdotes with data. A lot of people believe untrue things about the weather because they struggle to separate predictions about the future vs statements about the present." 1. Stop attacking people. There are no "propaganda trolls" attempting to "lure" anyone to the wrong conclusions here. 2. Stop citing anecdotes. Your list is a set of case studies hand picked by civil servants based on no published criteria, so it can't be used to determine the frequency of anything. You need observational data, which I already linked you to. Go look at it. 3. Stop presenting predictions in a discussion about what is actually happening! Your second link is the exact kind of confusion I just called out. Why are you citing predictions about the future in a discussion about the past and present? I'll ask again: where in the world are these farmers you talked to. Let us check the weather records and see if these farmers are simply confused in the same way you are.
  - boudin 1y ago
    I'm attacking you because you use well known manipulating techniques to deny scientific facts. You use yearly rainfall data which is not weather or climate, just statistics. You hand pick wind storm sentence to deny the existence of extreme weather events. We are talking about things happening now, I won't provide you studies from 20 years from now proving that it happened, I'm not from the future. This is about observation. You want some other data? Just look around. Example in France, situation of water crisis over time https://www.notre-environnement.gouv.fr/themes/economie/l-utilisation-des-ressources-naturelles-ressources/article/gestion-de-l-eau-en-periode-de-secheresse-en-france-metropolitaine-6326 https://www.notre-environnement.gouv.fr/themes/economie/l-ut... Here's an article about water shortage in the UK https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/01/why-uk-facing-water-shortages-despite-record-rainfall-explainer https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/01/why-uk-f... In the UK at least the Riverford farm has been talking about it for years when I was living there.