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"It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we
by icpmacdo 1y ago
"It feels like these new models are no longer making order of magnitude jumps, but are instead into the long tail of incremental improvements. It seems like we might be close to maxing out what the current iteration of LLMs can accomplish and we're into the diminishing returns phase."
SWE bench from ~30-40% to ~70-80% this year
- piperswe 1y agoHow much of that is because the models are optimizing specifically for SWE bench?
- icpmacdo 1y agonot that much because its getting better at all benchmarks
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- elcritch 1y agoYet despite this all the LLMS I've tried struggle to scale beyond much more than a single module. They're vast improvements on that test perhaps, but in real life they still struggle to be coherent over larger projects and scales.
- viraptor 1y agoThose are different kind of issues. Improving the quality of actions is what we're seeing here. Then for the larger projects/contexts the leaders will have to battle it out between the improved agents, or actually moving to something like RWKV and processing the whole project in one go.
- morsecodist 1y agoThey may be different kinds of issues but they are the issues that actually matter.
- bckr 1y ago> struggle to scale beyond much more than a single module Yes. You must guide coding agents at the level of modules and above. In fact, you have to know good coding patterns and make these patterns explicit. Claude 4 won’t use uv, pytest, pydantic, mypy, classes, small methods, and small files unless you tell it to. Once you tell it to, it will do a fantastic job generating well-structured, type-checked Python.
- avs733 1y ago3% to 40% is a 13x improvement 40% to 80% is a 2x improvement It’s not that the second leap isn’t impressive, it just doesn’t change your perspective on reality in the same way.
- viraptor 1y agoMaybe... It will be interesting to see the improvements now compared to other benchmarks. Is 80->90% going to be an incremental fix with minimal impact on the next benchmark (same work but better), or is it going to be an overall 2x improvement on the remaining unsolved cases. (different approach tackling previously missed areas) It really depends on how that remaining improvement happens. We'll see it soon though - every benchmark nearing 90% is being replaced with something new. SWE-verified is almost dead now.
- andyferris 1y agoI wouldn’t want to wait ages for Claude Code to fail 60% of the time. A 20% risk seems more manageable, and the improvements speak to better code and problem solving skills around.
- energy123 1y ago80% to 100% would be an even smaller improvement but arguably the most impressive and useful (assuming the benchmark isn't in the training data)
- keeeba 1y agohttps://arxiv.org/abs/2309.08632 https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.08632