6 ms·

Source? NYC chronically under builds. It's ranked #35 in new housing construction: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-most-in-new-housi

by fvrghl 1y ago

Source? NYC chronically under builds. It's ranked #35 in new housing construction: https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-most-in-new-housing https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-m...

filoleg 1y ago
That link you shared is counting the number of units build per 1k existing units. Given how dense and populated NYC is (aka how many existing units there are), this metric isn't as meaningful. I believe the grandparent comment was talking about the raw number of units. Actually, go to the bottom of the page you shared and look at the section titled "Full results", then sort by "Total new housing units authorized". Sadly, you will need to do some quick manual work to parse the results, because it sorts numbers as strings rather than as actual numbers. But you can clearly see from there that NYC is #1 in terms of raw numbers of new housing units. And that's data from 2021, and afaik NYC only increased those numbers significantly in the past 4 years.
- asdff 1y ago
  Raw numbers are meaningless when the rate of home building relative to job growth is what defines prices.
  - filoleg 1y ago
    Sure. What was the rate of homebuilding to job growth in NYC and other major metro areas in the US? I am not trying to be snarky, I actually agree with you. I just simply don't have that data on hand right now. But I am aligned with you in suspecting that the rate of home building to job growth would be a better indicator of the real housing market change (as opposed to the ratio of new residential units/1k residents or, to a lesser degree, raw numbers of new residential units).
    - asdff 1y ago
      It is even more accurate to consider job growth in terms of income growth. Job growth could very well go negative but if it means replacement of a working population with one of higher income, that also contributes to upward pressure on prices from this high income job growth. Even worse for the supply side crunch is that this high income population is not like the previous population in the sense that they aren't as sensitive to this given price level. So demand based responses to price increases aren't seen until the prices are truly bewildering due to the amount of disposable income available for some of these workers that could be spent on housing.
- mrDmrTmrJ 1y ago
  "# of new homes / # of people" Is the only way to access if new home construction will affect prices. NYC is chronically underbidding.
- aegypti 1y ago
  Here’s data from 2021-2025 using https://socds.huduser.gov/permits/index.html https://socds.huduser.gov/permits/index.html New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA ~21 million people 2021: 59,383 total units 2022: 60,602 2023: 41,674 2024: 61,159 2025: 6,777 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX ~7.5 million people 2021: 69,007 total units 2022: 75,786 2023: 68,336 2024: 65,296 2025: 11,057 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX ~8 million people 2021: 74,617 total units 2022: 77,501 2023: 66,725 2024: 72,319 2025: 9,836 Using Houston alone, NYC is not #1 in raw numbers and in 2025 so far is only permitting 60% as many units as a CBSA 3x smaller than it. I don’t know if HOU/DFW are the CBSAs pumping out the most units nationally though, they just came to mind.
  - redwood 1y ago
    Houston in Dallas who can simply expand externally into new land are hardly a proxy for a land real estate constrained city like New York that has to build vertically And how is their mass transportation going? As if houses alone are all that matters.
    - aegypti 1y ago
      Surely it's not so simple when New York City is building more housing supply that essentially any other American city can clearly see from there that NYC is #1 in terms of raw numbers of new housing units Are the original goalposts, housing supply alone is an important factor in the price of housing though fwiw.
redwood 1y ago
Find me anything that resembles something like this for any other American city https://newyorkyimby.com/ https://newyorkyimby.com/
- aegypti 1y ago
  https://layimby.com/ https://layimby.com/ https://sfyimby.com/ https://sfyimby.com/ https://chicagoyimby.com/ https://chicagoyimby.com/ https://phillyyimby.com/ https://phillyyimby.com/ You are not alone!

by fvrghl 1y ago

filoleg 1y ago

That link you shared is counting the number of units build per 1k existing units. Given how dense and populated NYC is (aka how many existing units there are), this metric isn't as meaningful. I believe the grandparent comment was talking about the raw number of units. Actually, go to the bottom of the page you shared and look at the section titled "Full results", then sort by "Total new housing units authorized". Sadly, you will need to do some quick manual work to parse the results, because it sorts numbers as strings rather than as actual numbers. But you can clearly see from there that NYC is #1 in terms of raw numbers of new housing units. And that's data from 2021, and afaik NYC only increased those numbers significantly in the past 4 years.

asdff 1y ago
Raw numbers are meaningless when the rate of home building relative to job growth is what defines prices.
- filoleg 1y ago
  Sure. What was the rate of homebuilding to job growth in NYC and other major metro areas in the US? I am not trying to be snarky, I actually agree with you. I just simply don't have that data on hand right now. But I am aligned with you in suspecting that the rate of home building to job growth would be a better indicator of the real housing market change (as opposed to the ratio of new residential units/1k residents or, to a lesser degree, raw numbers of new residential units).
  - asdff 1y ago
    It is even more accurate to consider job growth in terms of income growth. Job growth could very well go negative but if it means replacement of a working population with one of higher income, that also contributes to upward pressure on prices from this high income job growth. Even worse for the supply side crunch is that this high income population is not like the previous population in the sense that they aren't as sensitive to this given price level. So demand based responses to price increases aren't seen until the prices are truly bewildering due to the amount of disposable income available for some of these workers that could be spent on housing.
mrDmrTmrJ 1y ago
"# of new homes / # of people" Is the only way to access if new home construction will affect prices. NYC is chronically underbidding.
aegypti 1y ago
Here’s data from 2021-2025 using https://socds.huduser.gov/permits/index.html https://socds.huduser.gov/permits/index.html New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA ~21 million people 2021: 59,383 total units 2022: 60,602 2023: 41,674 2024: 61,159 2025: 6,777 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX ~7.5 million people 2021: 69,007 total units 2022: 75,786 2023: 68,336 2024: 65,296 2025: 11,057 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX ~8 million people 2021: 74,617 total units 2022: 77,501 2023: 66,725 2024: 72,319 2025: 9,836 Using Houston alone, NYC is not #1 in raw numbers and in 2025 so far is only permitting 60% as many units as a CBSA 3x smaller than it. I don’t know if HOU/DFW are the CBSAs pumping out the most units nationally though, they just came to mind.
- redwood 1y ago
  Houston in Dallas who can simply expand externally into new land are hardly a proxy for a land real estate constrained city like New York that has to build vertically And how is their mass transportation going? As if houses alone are all that matters.
  - aegypti 1y ago
    Surely it's not so simple when New York City is building more housing supply that essentially any other American city can clearly see from there that NYC is #1 in terms of raw numbers of new housing units Are the original goalposts, housing supply alone is an important factor in the price of housing though fwiw.

redwood 1y ago

Find me anything that resembles something like this for any other American city https://newyorkyimby.com/ https://newyorkyimby.com/

aegypti 1y ago
https://layimby.com/ https://layimby.com/ https://sfyimby.com/ https://sfyimby.com/ https://chicagoyimby.com/ https://chicagoyimby.com/ https://phillyyimby.com/ https://phillyyimby.com/ You are not alone!